Will state voters take tougher action on crime or simply shift to the middle?

Crime rates have fallen after a spike during the pandemic, but voters in several states are considering ballot measures that promote tougher crime policies.

A ballot initiative in California that would toughen penalties for drug offenses and theft is expected to pass with more than two-thirds of the vote, polls show.

The measure is a response to fentanyl abuse, an “explosion” in homelessness that may be due in part to drug use and retail theft and that has “gotten out of control,” says Greg Totten of the California District Attorneys Association, which sponsored Proposition 36. Reports Govern.

He describes the initiative as a course correction of Proposition 47, a criminal justice reform measure passed a decade ago that reduced penalties for certain nonviolent crimes in an attempt to reduce incarceration rates. “This is not a major departure from the ‘be tough and lock ’em’ initiative of the past,” Totten says. “This is a very modest, thoughtful move toward the center.”

The measure divides Democrats and faces opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has signed a package of laws aimed at combating retail theft. Democratic mayors, including those in San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose, have supported Proposition 36.

Opponents argue that the measure will undo the progress made by Proposition 47’s funding of mental health and substance use disorder programs that deter crime. “Proposition 36 exploits Californians’ legitimate and understandable fears that some problems have gotten worse in recent years … without offering any real solutions,” said Insha Rahman of Vera Action, which supports criminal justice reform efforts.

Voters appear to be in the mood to support a measure that promises to reduce crime. On Tuesday, voters in Arizona and Colorado will also decide on crime-fighting measures in the areas of sex trafficking, probation and police funding.

Several states are also considering more progressive measures, including legalizing marijuana for recreational use in Florida and the Dakotas Psychedelics in Massachusetts. California and Nevada could join seven states who voted to remove language from their constitutions that makes forced labor a punishment for crimes.

Overall, this year’s ballot measures, which are largely anti-crime, may indicate that voters are taking a conservative stance on the issue. The reality of these voting questions is that voters often face the binary decision of whether to impose a harsher punishment or maintain the status quo.