Stock market experts compare the 2024 election to a turbulent time in which the challenger prevailed against the incumbent

Wall Street is increasingly convinced that former President Trump will emerge victorious from next week’s long-awaited election.

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Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, joined FOX Business’s Charles Payne on Tuesday, saying this election cycle is unusual and reminiscent of another tumultuous time when the challenger defeated the incumbent.

“It does [seem different this year]because we are up more than 5% since July 31 and when the market was higher in that three-month period (July 31 to October 31), 82% of the time the incumbent person or party was re-elected,” he surmised.

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“One of those times when it didn’t succeed was 1968, and I have to say that election kind of reminds me of 1968, when LBJ resigned. Hubert Humphrey entered. The public was not happy with an unpopular war in Vietnam.” By the way, questions about inflation and immigration are being raised today. We had a Chicago [Democratic] Convention. We also had the Fed cut rates before the election, but that didn’t seem to matter. In the end, the successor won, not the incumbent.

Other commentators during the highly contentious and unpredictable election season have drawn similar comparisons between the 1968 and 2024 elections, each drawing jointly on President Biden and LBJ’s decisions not to seek re-election.

Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse Market Outlook Poll, meanwhile, shows that 38% of respondents believe a Trump victory would “accelerate” the current market rally, compared to 13% if Vice President Kamala Harris wins.

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People surveyed in Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey believe the market would be more likely to accelerate its rally if former President Trump wins the election.

However, a larger majority believed that the market would either stay the same, slow down or turn into losses if Harris wins.

Less than a week remains before voters go to the polls to make their final decisions. Trump and Harris are deadlocked in the polls, and the winner is expected to walk away with a razor-thin victory.

All eyes are currently on a number of key swing states – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona – with the assumption that either candidate’s narrow victory will come down to those states.

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