Idaho voters are moving to the right, and Idaho politics will follow them

(UPDATED, 5:53 p.m., with final results from Legislative District 26.)

On Tuesday, the nation moved to the right. And Idaho followed suit.

It was, in obvious and unsurprising ways, another red election night in Idaho. Let’s summarize them briefly. Donald Trump, as expected, won Idaho’s four electoral votes – with a majority of 67.1% that dwarfed his numbers from 2016 and 2020. Incumbent U.S. Reps. Mike Simpson and Russ Fulcher won pedestrian reelection campaigns.

So let’s focus on the state level – where politics and policy have a profound impact on K-12 and higher levels of education. Voters overwhelmingly rejected Proposition 1’s election reforms — and the oversimplified proposal to abandon a closed Republican Party primary that has steadily moved the GOP toward its hard line. Republicans also added three seats to their supermajority in the Statehouse — which could have a noticeable impact on how the 2025 legislative session plays out when it comes to private school voting and starting in Idaho.

It was a big night for the Idaho Republican Party. And especially on Prop. 1.

It’s not that surprising that voters rejected Proposition 1. The lead was the real highlight.

As of Wednesday morning, Anti-Prop. 1 Supermajority was a staggering 69.8%. To put that number in context, Idaho voters in 2012 soundly rejected education reforms that advocates derided as “students come first” and “Luna Laws” by critics. Then-Superintendent Tom Luna’s least popular education reform — a plan to put laptops in the hands of every high school student — failed with 66.7% of voters opposed.

That Prop. 1 lands even lower than the “laptop bill” is indeed a dubious achievement.

The Prop. 1 landslide represents a surprising turnaround for Reclaim Idaho, the group that put the ballot initiative on the ballot. In 2018, Reclaim’s Medicaid expansion initiative went smoothly. In 2022, the Quality Education Act Reclaim Initiative forced Governor Brad Little to act; In September 2022, he brought the Legislature back into session to pass preemptive legislation to cut taxes and provide $410 million per year for education (including the $80 million per year that now funds Launch).

Reclaim’s track record suddenly seems like old news.

Tuesday’s vote was also a sharp rejection of pro-prop. 1 campaign. Proponents emphasized what appeared to be their best argument: a “top four” primary open to all voters. And they raised millions of dollars to advance the case, mostly from outside Idaho.

This point was not lost on House Speaker Mike Moyle, who took a victory lap in a press release issued shortly after midnight.

“Over the last year, our state has been under attack by out-of-state left-wing activist groups seeking to change the way Idaho conducts elections,” Moyle told R-Star. “The defeat of Proposition 1 should serve as a message to out-of-state interest groups: any attempt to intervene in our state’s politics will be met with resounding defeat.”

Moyle had followed his words with actions, or at least those of his PAC. Leading up to Tuesday, Moyle’s political action committee, Idaho Rising, invested $321,000 in the anti-prop movement. 1 message.

The chorus of Republican critics — a big tent of occasional opponents like Moyle, Gov. Brad Little and state Republican Chairwoman Dorothy Moon — zeroed in on Prop. 1’s biggest weakness. They attacked Prop. 1’s ranked-choice voting provision. A smart strategy, considering that a statewide poll conducted by Boise State University a year ago found widespread opposition to ranked-choice voting. And indeed, ranked-choice voting proved to be a non-starter with voters in several other states on Tuesday.

The result: Critics of Idaho’s closed GOP primary may have missed their best chance to change it. Instead, voters gave the Idaho GOP a mandate. It is hard to imagine that the closed elementary school will disappear any time soon.

Another thing that won’t go away is the solid Republican majority in the Legislature. That’s no surprise. Heading into Tuesday evening, most Republican candidates appeared to be running in a safe race – and the focus turned to four “swing” districts where Democrats appeared to have a chance of a breakthrough.

That didn’t happen.

Republicans held serve and swept District 6, which includes Moscow and the University of Idaho campus. They won a Senate seat in West Boise’s District 15 and a House seat in District 29 in the Pocatello area. In District 26 — which includes Blaine, Jerome and Lincoln counties — the GOP won a House seat.

This results in a 29-6 supermajority in the Senate and a 61-9 supermajority in the House of Representatives.

It should come as no surprise that the GOP gained House seats on Tuesday. Only once since 1969 have Democrats won legislative seats in a presidential election year. But Tuesday’s losses came after Democrats launched a concerted and successful campaign to recruit legislative candidates. Democrats have cast votes in 81 general elections. They only won 15, a meager 19% success rate.

The Democrats’ problems go beyond the grim numbers. Only two Democratic representatives will reside outside of Boise: Sen. James Ruchti of Pocatello, who ran unopposed Tuesday; and Sen. Ron Taylor of Hailey, who narrowly missed out on a second term when the final ballots were counted in Blaine County on Wednesday. It is no exaggeration to say that the Democrats have all but disappeared from the legislative map.

Typically, a handful of swapped parliamentary seats have limited impact. Not so this year.

In the upcoming debate over private school choice, every vote will count — which explains why school choice advocates have spent tens of thousands of dollars on this election, which was largely focused on incumbent District 15 Sen. Rick Just, D-Boise.

This next legislative period will be significantly more conservative. That could lead to tighter committee and floor votes on Launch, Little’s popular postsecondary financial aid program, and more opposition to diversity, equity and inclusion programs on Idaho’s college campuses.

But first, these large and conservative GOP caucuses will elect leadership in December – the teams that divide lawmakers into education, budget and taxation committees. All of these key committees will likely move to the right.

Election night 2024 will have an immediate impact on politics, including education.

Kevin Richert writes a weekly analysis on the topic of education policy and education policy. Look for his stories every Thursday. Due to the topicality of the topic, this week’s analysis was published on Wednesday, November 6th.