Early data suggests Tyler Herro is embracing his valuable new role

The Miami Heat got off to their usual rocky start. 3-3 doesn’t seem bad at first glance, but when you peel back the layers you realize that the Heat have only beaten teams that are at the bottom. To make matters worse, the Heat haven’t beaten a “good” team since April 2nd. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler haven’t shown consistent greatness, the third-quarter meltdowns recur in every game, and the starters are a combined -20.89 in 79 minutes.

Other than Tyler Herro taking another leap, there wasn’t much to rely on. And this jump is the best for the Miami Heat and Herro’s value in the entire league.

The “Make Tyler Herro the sixth man” conversation has been silent this season. Herro was arguably the best player on the team, even if he struggled a bit in the second half of the game. Herro has been more aggressive in attacking closeouts and getting in with both feet and has fully embraced that off-ball role. The drives and rim attempts were fun as Herro had a 69% hit rate in the Cup. That number may go down, but his process and mindset have set the stage for successful offensive possessions. We love the drives, but the catch and shoot will take Herro to the next level.

Herro said he would get more off the ball this year, and he was a man of his word. He ranks third on the Heat with 57.7 shots per game and is making 53% of his shots from 3 (a career high). Herro does more flying off the catch than dribbling into traffic to get away from his hard, home-made middies.

Those shots have their place in this offense, but they aren’t the main ingredient in Herro’s current game. He stretches the defense and hits an impressive 48% on 5.2 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Accuracy isn’t a new development, but Herro had never shot more than four catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts before this year. A high-volume, driving slashing 3-point shooter offers tremendous value.

We all remember the summer of 2023 when Tyler Herro faced intense scrutiny. He was the key figure in a possible trade for Damian Lillard. Fans and team executives weren’t sure how valuable Herro was as an undersized, short-armed combo guard. Teams weren’t lining up to trade a max-contract player who wasn’t particularly efficient, had trouble driving to the rim, and didn’t excel defensively. While concerns about his defense remain legitimate, criticism of his effectiveness is diminishing.

Herro has consistently shot nearly 40% from 3-point range throughout his career, and that will continue as he increases his volume. Herro is currently shooting 44% on 8.7 3PA. Those attempts should increase to 10 if he takes on the off-ball catch-and-shoot role. This improvement will make Herro more efficient (his 60.8 eFG% would be a career high) and more attractive to teams across the league. Sure, he’ll never command the number one options like Klay Thompson did during the Golden State dynasty, but Herro can emulate Klay’s volume shooting with more juice off the dribble. If he continues to put up these elite Klay Thompson-like numbers, there will never be a debate about how valuable Tyler Herro is again.

Statistics as of November 5, 2024 via Cleaning The Glass, NBA.com, Basketball Reference and PBP Stats