Trump’s views on Social Security and Medicare explained

Topline

Former President Donald Trump’s projected victory could impact Social Security and Medicare, as while the ex-president has publicly vowed not to cut benefit programs, experts have warned that his policy proposals – including a tax cut on Social Security benefits – could make the programs work An analysis shows that Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security funds sooner than expected, in just six years.

Important facts

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Main critic

“CRFB’s so-called experts have been wrong over the years,” Leavitt said in a statement to Forbes following the release of the group’s analysis, claiming that Trump “will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term.”

Surprising fact

Tax experts predict that Trump’s proposed Social Security tax cut would not only deplete the U.S. Social Security and Medicare funds more quickly, but also would not provide much benefit to the U.S. middle class. Social Security recipients earning between $32,000 and $60,000 a year would save only about $90 in taxes, according to the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center, while the 1% of earners making $5 million Earning $2,500 or more would receive $2,500. The lowest-income Americans, those making less than $32,000, already aren’t taxed on their Social Security benefits, so they wouldn’t see any change.

How does immigration affect social security?

Leavitt claimed to Forbes that Vice President Kamala Harris’ policy proposals put Social Security at risk because allowing illegal immigrants to “stay” would “lead to a breakdown and collapse of Social Security.” But CFRB and other experts say the opposite is true and that it is Trump’s plan for mass deportations that would actually harm the entitlement program. Undocumented immigrants who are employed in the U.S. pay into Social Security even though they don’t actually receive any money from it, ultimately bolstering the program’s coffers more than U.S. citizens who receive money from Social Security. If these migrants were all deported, as Trump has suggested, it would mean that Social Security would lose all the money they are paying in now, making their financial problems worse. The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary estimated in 2013 that undocumented immigrants contributed about $12 billion to Social Security in 2010, and the CFRB forecast assumes that Trump’s deportation and tariff plans will boost Social Security total between fiscal years by between 300 and 2010 It would cost $750 billion in 2026 and 2035.

What about Project 2025?

Harris and other Democrats have pointed to Project 2025 and suggested that Trump would cut Social Security and Medicare if elected. The document, a 900-page policy agenda spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing groups, proposes a complete overhaul of the executive branch by the next Conservative government. “Just look at his agenda for Project 2025,” Harris said in a speech that was also shared online by her campaign. “If elected, Donald Trump…intends to cut Social Security and Medicare.” Project 2025 does not specifically call for a complete cut to Social Security or Medicare, but does propose reforms to Medicare that include, among other things, the implementation of Medicare Advantage, a fee-based supplement to Medicare, the “standard enrollment option.” Trump and his campaign have publicly denied any connection to Project 2025 — although he has ties to the Heritage Foundation and has praised its work in the past — and he would not be required to follow its policy agenda if elected.

tangent

Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, told the New York Times before he was named Trump’s vice presidential running mate that he would support raising money for Social Security through a combination of getting men back into the workforce, raising wages and the increase in tariffs. By doing so, he claimed, “I think you’re buying yourself a whole lot more than the nine or 10 years that the actuaries are telling us.” It’s unclear whether Trump shares these views on how to close a potential funding gap for Social Security although the ex-president has proposed an increase in tariffs on imported goods. But tax experts say raising tariffs would not raise significant government revenue and that the amount it would raise would likely be less than expected because at least some Americans would stop buying imported goods because they are more expensive.

Important background

The economy became a key issue in the November election as polls repeatedly showed it was the most important issue for voters, including Social Security. Trump emphasized his plan to eliminate Social Security taxes on the campaign trail by releasing a campaign video on social media Monday in which he claimed the former president would “make sure no one cuts Medicare or Social Security.” The left also attacked Trump over his views on Social Security, putting up billboards in Asheville, North Carolina, in August that targeted Trump on Social Security when he was about to give a speech there about the economy. The billboards claimed that Trump planned to “slash funding, leave seniors behind and cut taxes on the super-rich,” according to The Hill, and coincided with the anniversary of the signing of the Social Security Act in 1935.

Further reading

What to Know About Kamala Harris’ Economic Agenda as She Announces New Proposals for Black Men (Forbes)

What would the Trump campaign’s plans mean for Social Security? (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

Donald Trump’s Proposal to End Taxation on Social Security Benefits (Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget)

Exempting social security benefits from income tax is unreasonable and fiscally irresponsible (Tax Foundation)

How would Donald Trump and Kamala Harris change your taxes? Here’s what you should know. (Forbes)