MLB qualifying offers explained: What it means for each of the 13 free agents on offer

The first important date of the MLB offseason came and went on Monday evening. Thirteen free agents, from Juan Soto to Nick Martinez, now have qualifying offers in hand.

The qualifying offer serves as a competitive leveling measure through which clubs can receive compensatory draft picks if an outgoing free agent declines his one-year offer – this year the value is $21.05 million, the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players.

Free agents are not eligible for a qualifying offer if they have previously received one or have not been on the same roster all season. If a free agent declines the qualifying offer, he remains a free agent and the club that signs him loses at least one draft pick. This may weaken the offers that some mid-tier free agents receive.

Only 13 of the 131 players who have ever received a qualifying offer have accepted it. But it wouldn’t be surprising to see more than one sign this year. Here’s a primer on all 13 players who received a qualifying offer on Monday, as confirmed by a league source briefed on the list.

Soto will be the most sought-after free agent this winter, and he will almost certainly get some sort of record deal. He will reject the qualified offer. — Brendan Kuty

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore

At the top of the market, something like this is a formality. And Burnes is at the top of the pitching market, having pitched the third-most innings and producing at a top-10 level over the last three seasons. — Eno Sarris

Alex Bregman, Houston

Bregman will decline the Astros’ qualifying offer, but that won’t stop Houston from pursuing a reunion with its homegrown third baseman. The Astros’ lack of any internal options to replace him — coupled with a thin market of free-agent position players behind Bregman — could increase Houston’s intensity in handing out a rare contract and Bregman for the next six or seven seasons to block. — Chandler Rome

Max Fried, Atlanta

Fried is expected to have a minimum five-year contract with an average annual value of closer to $30 million than $25 million. The Braves will make at least a cursory attempt to re-sign him, but whether they will get into a bidding war is unclear. If recent history is prologue — see: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson — the fact that Atlanta didn’t extend Fried before he reached free agency doesn’t bode well for the likelihood of him staying. — David O’Brien

Willy Adames, Milwaukee

While Adames isn’t nearly as young as Soto, who just turned 26, he will be one of the youngest and most sought-after free agents on the market as he enters his age-29 season. The qualified offer should not suppress the interest of the applicants. The athleteTim Britton is expected to receive a six-year, $150 million contract, and Keith Law ranks him as the No. 2 free agent, behind only Soto. This is a thin class of free agent shortstops, with only Ha-Seong Kim (rehabilitating a shoulder injury) coming close to Adames’ projected production in the coming years. Adames had a .794 OPS and 32 home runs for the Brewers this season. His defensive stats have impressed him in the past, although he has been average at shortstop this season. — Stephen J Nesbitt

Alonso had a down year by his standards, but still managed 34 home runs with an OPS+ of 123. There is virtually no expectation that he will accept a qualifying offer, as he has been one of the best right-handed power hitters in the league since his debut in 2019 . He also hired agent Scott Boras before his walk year; He wants to sign a significant multi-year contract. — Will Sammon

Anthony Santander, Baltimore

This situation will be fascinating to watch. He’s a good, if not great, free agent (16th according to Keith Law) who is having a career year on offense but offers little (if any) defensive value. At age 30 and with that profile, he could be hoping for more than three years around the $20 million per year mark – so Baltimore should be happy to have him back on the qualifying offer. For other teams, the math becomes a little more difficult with the draft pick compensation involved. They may want to reduce the money or years to reflect the risk they are taking.

Santander might get frustrated in this situation and wonder what else he has to do – but teams can’t offer the qualifying offer to the same player twice, so he might end up using the one-year guarantee and end up back on the market with no draft pick compensation, which is linked to his name. Either way, he’s exactly the type of mid-tier free agent whose market will be seriously impacted by the qualifying offer. — Eno Sarris

Last winter, it was a mild surprise that the Seattle Mariners didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Hernández. A year, 33 home runs and a World Series later, the Dodgers didn’t hesitate to take him instead. That was a given, and it will likely be a given for Hernández and his camp to reject it. The outfielder publicly expressed his desire to remain a Dodger but was equally vocal about seeking a multi-year deal last winter before agreeing to a one-year, $23.5 million deferred money deal. Expect the Dodgers and Hernández to continue talking beyond the window.

On the other hand, there may be no player who improved his offseason record more this October than Walker Buehler, who finished the postseason with 13 consecutive scoreless innings, including six scoreless in the World Series against the Yankees and this did not receive a qualified offer. Buehler repeatedly avoided any talk of his impending free agency this summer as he struggled with a 5.38 ERA in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but he was at his best at the end of the season and will be some as a result Earn dollars. It was at least a mild surprise that the Dodgers didn’t extend him a qualifying offer – a one-year, $21.05 million deal would have made sense for both parties as Buehler wanted to continue to reestablish his value. But while both sides are expected to have mutual interest, this puts Buehler on the market with his stock trending upward and no draft pick attached. — Fabian Ardaya

Nick Pivetta, Boston

Nick Pivetta could be looking for a multi-year deal outside of Boston. (Stephen Brashear/USA Today)

It was a bit of a surprise that the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Pivetta. The right-hander, who turns 32 in February, is coming off one of his best years as a starter, posting a 4.14 ERA with a 6 percent walk rate and a 28 strikeout rate in 27 games and 26 starts. 9 percent. Pivetta has been a durable pitcher over the last five years in Boston, posting a 4.29 ERA in 121 games and 107 starts, but given the Red Sox’s needs, it seemed like they could allocate the $21 million elsewhere. Pivetta could decline and look to sign a longer contract elsewhere, especially after a solid season. The athleteTim Britton predicts he will sign a three-year, $48 million deal. — Jen McCaffrey

Christian Walker, Arizona

The NL Gold Glove Award winner at first base each of the last three seasons will almost certainly decline the qualifying offer and look for a multi-year deal this offseason. Walker is the best defensive first baseman in baseball, hitting 30 homers at the plate. He will also be 34 years old at the start of next season. He could easily exceed the $50 million threshold – in which case the Diamondbacks would have their choice between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A – but it also wouldn’t be surprising if his age affected his market value a bit. — Noah Furtado

The 32-year-old Manaea had the best season of his career in 2024, recording a career-high in innings pitched (181 2/3) with a 3.47 ERA. Although he thoroughly enjoyed his time in New York, it would be nothing short of shocking if he accepted a qualifying offer. It’s likely that agent Scott Boras views Manaea as at least the No. 2 starting player in this market. That should mean a contract with a term of three to four years. — Will Sammon

Luis Severino, New York Mets

Unlike Alonso and Manaea, the 30-year-old Severino is the only Mets player on this list who could consider accepting the qualifying offer. He signed a one-year, $13 million contract with New York last offseason and posted a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts.

The athleteTim Britton predicted Severino would make $50 million over three years on the open market, for an average annual value of $16.6 million. But if he agrees, he could make 40 percent of that guarantee in 2025 and then return to the open market next winter. — Rustin Dodd

Nick Martinez, Cincinnati

Martinez signed a two-year contract with the Reds last offseason with an opt-out after the first year. He earned $14 million in 2024 and was scheduled to earn $12 million in 2025 if he didn’t retire. The 34-year-old Martinez began the season in the rotation due to the team’s injuries, but spent most of the year in the bullpen, where he had a 1.86 ERA over 53 1/3 innings. He returned to the rotation for the final two months of the season. His second stint in the rotation went much better than the first, going 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 11 starts, while he was named the National League Pitcher of the Month for September when he went 4-1 with an ERA of 0.83 won. In his only loss during that stretch, he allowed just one run in the team’s only complete game of the season.

Both Martinez and the Reds said they would be interested in reuniting if he left (it was obvious he would), and the Reds’ qualifying offer is a sign that they want him back. For Martinez, the qualifying offer would be a significant increase over what he would have made had he not opted out, and Michael Wacha’s contract with the Royals could be a glimpse of where his value might be. Wacha signed a three-year contract worth $51 million with an opt-out after two years. Wacha will earn $18 million in the first two guaranteed years of his contract. Does Martinez expect to make more than that? It may come down to the one-year payout versus the promise of a multi-year contract. Draft pick compensation tied to his signing could discourage other teams and prompt Martinez to accept it rather than hit the open market.

If Martinez agrees, the Reds can eliminate one of their top items on their offseason wish list: the veteran starter. Unlike a season ago when Martinez struggled to get into the rotation in spring training, if he returns he would be in the rotation with Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and likely Rhett Lowder. — C Trent Rosecrans

(Top photo by Alex Bregman: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)