Three keys to victory and a prediction

The Nevada football team plays at Boise State on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Rams with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in collaboration with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.

Nevada (3-7, 0-4 MW) at Boise State (7-1, 4-0)

When: Saturday, 5 p.m

Where: Albertsons Stadium (capacity 36,363)

Surface: FieldTurf (blue)

Weather: maximum value of 54; Low of 37

TV/Radio: Fox/105.7 FM (also on Varsity Network)

On-line: None

Betting line: Boise State by 24; total 60.5

All-time series: Boise State leads 31-14

Last matchup: Boise State won 41-3 on November 12, 2022 (in Reno).

Three keys to the game

1. No explosives for Ashton: Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty averages eight yards per carry, making it almost an explosive play every time he touches the ball. Nevada cannot allow this. The Wolf Pack needs to make sure Boise State marches down the field instead of scoring with a big play. Defensive failures cost Nevada last week against Colorado State, and Boise State has a far more explosive offense than the Rams. Here are Jeanty’s long runs in each game this season: 77, 70, 68, 64, 75, 54, 16 and 35. That’s right – in his first six games this season, Jeanty managed at least one run per game of over 50 yards. Boise State’s last two opponents – UNLV and San Diego State – have done a better job of making Jeanty earn his yards, as he averages just 3.9 and 4.8 yards per carry, respectively. If Nevada can keep Jeanty under 5.0 yards per carry, which would require high-level tackling, that would be a big win for the Wolf Pack.

2. Give B-Lew time: Boise State leads the nation with 38 sacks per game this season. The Broncos’ defensive front is elite with edge rushers Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Ahmed Hassanein combining for 15.5 sacks. Nevada’s offensive tackle trio of Isaiah World, Josiah Timoteo and Frank Poso will be tested like no other game they have played this season. The Wolf Pack would obviously like to get their running game going to slow down these speed rushers, but that won’t be easy as the Broncos limit their opponents to 3.4 yards per carry. Boise State’s secondary is vulnerable, but to exploit that weakness, the Wolfpack must give Lewis time to control the passing game. His mobility will certainly help the team avoid sacks, but few opponents have consistently moved the ball down the field against the Broncos, so the Wolf Pack will need to get some explosive plays out of their offense, most likely in the passing game.

3. No special teams disasters: This has been a problem this season, as an unfortunate knee fall on kickoff in the season opener against SMU proved fatal. two punts that Nevada failed to defend cost the game against Fresno State; and a miscommunication on a kick return last week against Colorado State that allowed the Rams to score a touchdown on the play. The Wolf Pack’s special teams don’t necessarily have to be anything special, but they can’t give the game away with blunders. Boise State has traditionally been one of the elite special teams teams, dating back to when Nevada head coach Jeff Choate led that group for the Broncos. That wasn’t the case this season, as Boise State ranked 114th in special teams in the ESPN Football Power Index with two return touchdowns allowed (both in the loss to Oregon). But Nevada is 131st of 134 teams in special teams, so it’s even worse.

forecast

Boise State 45, Nevada 14: Boise State’s seven wins this season have come by an average of 23.4 points per game, so it might make sense for the Broncos to be the 24-point favorite. But it seems low to me. Boise State’s offense should move the ball at will against Nevada’s defense, which has allowed at least 34 points in four of its last five games after playing well in the first month of the season (23.6 ppg in its first five games ). The Wolfpack should put on a gutsy performance for their coach, Choate, who has some Boise State backstory, but I can’t imagine this being a must-win game in the fourth quarter given the disparity in talent and confidence. Season balance: 7-3 (straight up); 6-3-1 (against the spread)

Columnist Chris Murray provides insight into sports in Northern Nevada. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.