NFL playoff probabilities for each team

by Junna Base November 12, 2024

What is the NFL playoff probability for each NFL team entering the NFL Week 11 schedule?

Here’s a look at the updated NFL playoff picture and NFL postseason rankings with NFL playoff probabilities, courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats, for all 32 teams in the league.

Those probabilities range from 99% to less than 1% after Sunday’s NFL Week 10 games, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions currently having the best odds for postseason berths, as well as the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders currently have less than 1% playoff probability.

There are eight NFL divisions, four in the NFC and four in the AFC, with each division winner receiving a playoff spot in each conference and the three non-division winners with the best records in that conference receiving wild card bids to the postseason.

NFC Playoff Image Week 11: Who’s in the NFL Postseason Right Now?

No. 1 Detroit Lions (8-1) – NFC North leaders (NFL playoff probability: 99%)
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) – NFC East Leader (NFL Playoff Probability: 92%)
No. 3 Atlanta Falcons (6-4) – NFC South frontrunners (NFL playoff probability: 83%)
No. 4 Arizona Cardinals (6-4) – NFC West frontrunners (NFL playoff probability: 56%)
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (7-2) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 91%)
No. 6 Washington Commanders (7-3) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 79%)
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (6-3) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 68%)

NFC Playoff Image Week 11: Who’s not in the NFL postseason right now?

No. 8 San Francisco 49ers (5-4) (NFL Playoff Probability: 58%)
No. 9 Chicago Bears (4-5) (NFL playoff probability: 3%)
No. 10 Seattle Seahawks (4-5) (NFL Playoff Probability: 11%)
No. 11 Los Angeles Rams (4-5) (NFL Playoff Probability: 13%)
No. 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6) (NFL Playoff Probability: 33%)
No. 13 Dallas Cowboys (3-6) (NFL Playoff Probability: 4%)
No. 14 New Orleans Saints (3-7) (NFL Playoff Probability: 3%)
No. 15 Carolina Panthers (3-7) (NFL playoff probability: less than 1%)
No. 16 New York Giants (2-8) (NFL playoff probability: less than 1%)

NFC Playoff Image Week 11: Which NFL postseason matchups are currently taking place?

No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles
No. 6 Washington Commanders at No. 3 Atlanta Falcons
No. 5 Minnesota Vikings and No. 4 Arizona Cardinals

NFL odds week 11: Point Spreads, Moneylines, Over/Under | Super Bowl Odds | NFL MVP odds | NFL Coach of the Year Odds

AFC playoff picture Week 11: Who’s in the NFL postseason right now?

No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) – AFC North leaders (NFL playoff probability: 99%)
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (8-2) – AFC East leaders (NFL playoff probability: 99%)
No. 3 Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) – AFC North leaders (NFL playoff probability: 93%)
No. 4 Houston Texans (6-4) – Top AFC South (NFL Playoff Probability: 96%)
No. 5 Baltimore Ravens (7-3) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 97%)
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 85%)
No. 7 Denver Broncos (5-5) – Wild Card (NFL Playoff Probability: 51%)

NFL Strength of Schedule: NFC Rankings | AFC rankings