NFL playoff tiers 2024: Projecting 32 teams in standings

We’re now officially in the second half of the 2024 NFL season, and the playoff race is starting to take form. While the standings tell us a lot about teams’ chances to reach the postseason, they don’t tell us everything. Team strength, injuries, tiebreakers, future strength of schedule and more can shift those odds up or down and don’t directly show up in the win (or loss) column.

ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder broke down all 32 teams into eight tiers of playoff hopes, ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to those already looking ahead to 2025. There are various shades of gray in between, because for as much as we might feel we know about this NFL season, things could look quite different once Week 18 rolls around. The tiers are based on information from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, performance metrics, health status and some instinct.

Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN’s NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it’s securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team’s QB position. All statistical rankings are through Sunday night’s Lions-Texans game, and playoff chances are from the FPI:

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

Tier 1: The true Super Bowl contenders

Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chances to win the AFC West: 97.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 29.7%

So quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense haven’t been dominant. But they’re around where they were last season (they’re 11th in EPA per play this season, the same ranking as 2023), and I don’t need to tell you how that turned out. And that’s not even to mention the already-logged wins and the third-easiest remaining schedule. We’re just in a waiting game to find out if the Chiefs can three-peat. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Get the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Anything less seems like a failure. The Chiefs are the AFC’s only unbeaten team, and every other team in the conference has at least two losses. They had an early bye this season (Week 6), so the break given to the top seed during wild-card weekend would come at a good time. Not having to travel for any postseason games before the Super Bowl is an added bonus. — Adam Teicher

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Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chances to the win AFC East: 99.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 22.8%

A strong offensive line, wide receiver Khalil Shakir’s emergence and quarterback Josh Allen playing at MVP-conversation level have Buffalo’s offense clicking. The Bills have the AFC East locked down and can again aspire to reach and win the Super Bowl. This could be Buffalo’s year. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Take the No. 1 seed away from the Chiefs. It’s a lofty goal, one that would be significantly aided by beating Kansas City in Week 11. Topping the AFC has been an unachievable threshold for the Bills over the past couple of seasons, but it’s in front of them again. Buffalo will need some help from the Chiefs’ opponents to get there, not to mention getting wins over tough opponents such as the 49ers and Lions down the stretch. — Alaina Getzenberg

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Chances to make the playoffs: 99.4%
Chances to win the NFC North: 82.4%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 33.9%

The Lions are the best team in the NFC, even after star edge Aidan Hutchinson’s fractured left tibia and fibula knocked him out for the foreseeable future — though he might have a chance to play in the Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has the offense humming, and the defense has improved. The pass rush is still a concern, though, even after acquiring Za’Darius Smith at the trade deadline. If the Lions don’t walk away with a Lombardi Trophy this season, they’ll see it as a missed opportunity. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: The No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Lions snapped a laundry list of notable droughts in 2023, which included capturing their first division title in three decades. With a strong start, the Lions now have a realistic shot of getting the No. 1 seed in the 2024 playoffs. Detroit lost at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game a year ago, so it’d be advantageous for the Lions to get the bye and stay home before taking on some of the conference’s strongest opponents in front of their supportive fans. — Eric Woodyard

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Chances to make the playoffs: 99.2%
Chances to win the AFC North: 63.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 22%

Quarterback Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP but is arguably playing the best football of his life right now. That’s how high the ceiling is for him and the Ravens. The big question is whether the pass defense — which ranks 29th in EPA per dropback — will recover. It’s easier to improve during the season on defense than offense, but that unit is a weakness right now. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Turn around the defense. Under first-year coordinator Zach Orr, the defense has been the biggest weakness on a team that has looked like a Super Bowl contender. Through Sunday, the Ravens are 27th in yards allowed (367.9) and 25th in points allowed (25.3). If Baltimore is looking for inspiration to turn this around, it can point to 2022, Mike Macdonald’s first season as its defensive coordinator. The defense ranked 19th in yards allowed and 18th in points allowed through the first nine games but finished third in total yards and points in the final eight games. — Jamison Hensley

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Tier 2: Playoff locks

Chances to make the playoffs: 95.3%
Chances to win the NFC East: 63.4%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 15%

It hasn’t always been perfect, but the thesis for the Eagles is similar to what it was in the preseason (when I picked them to go to the Super Bowl) — they’re just too talented. A good offensive line, good quarterback and elite playmakers should put them in position to win. While the pass rush hasn’t been what they might have hoped, the defense still ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play. That’s enough to reach the postseason, either as a division winner or a wild card. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Win the NFC East. The Eagles and Commanders are in a fight for the division and play each other twice down the stretch, including Thursday night in South Philly. The Eagles have won five straight, but the schedule toughens from here, with games against the Ravens and Steelers also on the docket. The first order of business is to claim the division, then concern themselves with grabbing one of the top playoff seeds. — Tim McManus

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Chances to make the playoffs: 94.8%
Chances to win the AFC South: 92.6%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 7.6%

Houston’s record has been better than its play, as the FPI sees the Texans as only the 13th-best team in NFL, with quarterback C.J. Stroud tied for 20th in QBR (54.2). The Texans will be in the playoffs given the division they play in and two banked wins over the second-place Colts. But this roster — even after losing wide receiver Stefon Diggs for the season — ought to have higher aspirations. From Stroud to receiver Nico Collins to edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., there’s potential for more. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Protect Stroud. The Texans’ lofty 2024 goals will disappear if they don’t figure out how to protect their quarterback. Stroud has been sacked 34 times (second most in the NFL) and pressured on 36.5% of his dropbacks. The second-year quarterback has struggled under pressure with a QBR of 34.6. The onus is on the Texans to fix their pass protection, or they might fall short of their preseason aspirations. — DJ Bien-Aime

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Chances to make the playoffs: 94%
Chances to win the AFC North: 36.3%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 8.2%

Relying on defense is the tougher path to victories, but that’s what Pittsburgh has done thus far in 2024 — and it has worked. It helps when you have arguably the best defensive line in the game. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been good enough (60.8 QBR), which has to be in the recipe for success going forward. While I remain skeptical newly-acquired Mike Williams can make a big impact, he did catch a game-winning touchdown against the Commanders on Sunday. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Get concrete answers about their QB future. With Justin Fields and Wilson set to be free agents after the season and a weak QB draft class on the horizon, it’s paramount for the Steelers to determine a long-term answer at a position that has struggled since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement. Fields played well enough in his six starts, excelling as a dynamic runner, but Wilson’s arm has opened up the passing game. — Brooke Pryor

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Tier 3: Likely in, barring a collapse

Chances to make the playoffs: 89.5%
Chances to win the NFC East: 36.5%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 9%

Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is fourth in QBR (71.8) behind a surprisingly strong offensive line, leading to the second-most efficient offense in the NFL. The defense is a work in progress, but the front office took a crucial step in improving it by adding cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the trade deadline. With seven wins already banked and half the NFC East falling apart, the real question is how far Daniels can take the Commanders in the playoffs. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Win the NFC East. Washington is a half-game behind the Eagles and can rightly dream of winning 11 or 12 games. In five of the past eight seasons, the NFC East winner needed to have a dozen wins. The Commanders might be a surprise, but their play isn’t a fluke. Daniels has been mentioned as an MVP candidate, and Lattimore gives the defense a true No. 1 corner. — John Keim

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Chances to make the playoffs: 88.5%
Chances to win the NFC North: 11.7%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 9.9%

Minnesota shocked the NFL world with its 5-0 start, which should be enough to get it to the postseason. If there’s a sliver of doubt, it’s that the Vikings’ offense has been closer to mediocre (15th in EPA per play) and the schematic advantages drawn up by defensive coordinator Brian Flores come with concerns about how repeatable they can be in the long term. Don’t get me wrong: The Vikings should reach the postseason. But offensive performance is much more stable, so just because they have had an elite defense doesn’t mean they always will. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Make the playoffs. It might seem like a modest goal for a team that has a solid chance to be at least a wild-card team, but the Lions are in the driver’s seat for the NFC North title, and the Packers are right behind Minnesota in the division standings. Clinching a wild-card spot, amid a transition year at quarterback, would be a strong organizational accomplishment. — Kevin Seifert

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Chances to make the playoffs: 88.2%
Chances to win the AFC West: 2.9%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 5%

I’m not sure anyone saw this coming, but the Chargers’ defense has put them in a position where they should make the playoffs. Los Angeles has been able to stop the pass (sixth in EPA allowed per dropback) and the run (third vs. designed carries). The Chargers have also gotten away from their very run-heavy approach. Before their Week 5 bye, the Chargers ran at a rate of 11 percentage points over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But in Weeks 6 through 9, they passed at a rate of two points over expectation. They’ve unlocked quarterback Justin Herbert and put themselves in position to reach the postseason. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Go 3-2 or better in Weeks 11 through 15. The Chargers have defeated just one playoff team from last season in the struggling Browns but will face three playoff teams from last season during this stretch (Ravens, Chiefs, Buccaneers). They also play the NFC South-leading Falcons and playoff-contending Bengals. If the Chargers complete this stretch with three or more victories, they should be in the hunt for a playoff berth. — Kris Rhim

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Chances to make the playoffs: 86.9%
Chances to win the NFC South: 85.5%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 6.4%

It took a little while for the Kirk Cousins-led offense to take off, but it now ranks ninth in EPA per dropback. The result is a first-place Falcons team in control of the NFC South that should be able to ride its passing game to the postseason, even if the pass defense remains a bit shaky. Having had the second-easiest schedule thus far has also helped. Even after losing to the Saints on Sunday, the Falcons still have a two-game lead in the division over the Buccaneers, with the head-to-head tiebreaker already secured. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Win the NFC South. The Falcons have not had a winning season nor made the playoffs since 2017. You’d have to go back one year earlier for the last time they won the division. Becoming division champion was the goal set by coach Raheem Morris when he was hired in the offseason, which was amplified after Cousins was signed. Atlanta already has a 4-1 division record, with the only remaining NFC South game coming against the struggling Panthers. — Marc Raimondi

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Tier 4: We’re leaning yes

Chances to make the playoffs: 77.5%
Chances to win the NFC North: 5.8%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 10.3%

Jordan Love hasn’t been able to build off his incredible second half and postseason run of 2023, as he is tied for 20th in QBR (54.2). But even with Love missing time earlier this season, the Packers managed to snag two wins with Malik Willis, giving the offense a runway to rediscover its groove. They’ll likely be in the playoffs, but can Love recapture his 2023 form and can the defense find a pass rush? If the answer is yes to both, a postseason run could be in the cards. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Cut down the interceptions. Love can’t keep throwing interceptions at this rate — a league-high 10 despite missing 2½ games — if the Packers want to make a Super Bowl run. Last season, he threw only one pick in the final eight games after throwing 10 in the first nine. It’s a fine line for coach Matt LaFleur, who doesn’t want to take away Love’s ability to make off-schedule plays. — Rob Demovsky

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Chances to make the playoffs: 60.1%
Chances to win the NFC West: 49.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 4.7%

Kyler Murray’s sneaky good season (second in QBR, 75.5), a solid rushing attack and a winning record through 10 games despite playing the league’s second-hardest schedule put the Cardinals in a solid position. The Cardinals now face the fourth-easiest schedule, giving them a decent chance to reach the playoffs, even with a very shaky defense that ranks 26th in EPA per play. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Win the games they should. The Cardinals are currently one of the NFL’s hottest teams, having won four in a row and five out of six games. They’re approaching a friendly stretch run, but to get to the playoffs they’ll have to win the games they’re favored in, such as matchups against the Panthers and Patriots. — Josh Weinfuss

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Chances to make the playoffs: 49.6%
Chances to win the NFC West: 35.7%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 7.2%

That the 49ers are anywhere besides Tier 1 in this exercise is dumbfounding, but here we are. It’s especially odd since their pass protection — a concern going into the season — has been much better than expected, ranking eighth in pass block win rate.

Running back Christian McCaffrey missed the first eight games and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was disappointing before suffering a torn ACL, so the offense hasn’t been its usual model of efficiency. If McCaffrey can return to form (Sunday was a good start), Kyle Shanahan’s offense can thrive again. But there are no guarantees, especially with the 49ers facing the third-hardest remaining schedule, per the FPI. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Go at least 2-1 in the next three games. The 49ers have been lights-out in November over the past three seasons, going 9-1 on their way to reaching at least the NFC Championship Game each year. This month’s slate will reveal a lot, as the Niners follow Sunday’s win at Tampa Bay by hosting Seattle, then heading to Green Bay and Buffalo. If San Francisco can get through that stretch with at least two wins, it will be well-positioned for another NFC West title. — Nick Wagoner

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Tier 5: On the fringe of hope and despair

Chances to make the playoffs: 36.9%
Chances to win the AFC North: 0.6%

On one hand, the Bengals have a mediocre record and a struggling defense. On the other, quarterback Joe Burrow is having his best season and defensive end Trey Hendrickson is a leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Those latter two factors are mighty compelling, so I’m bullish on Cincinnati despite its current win total. The passing game gives the Bengals a chance to keep up with anyone and could set them up for a postseason run … but they must get there first. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Continue developing young DBs. If Cincinnati is going to be good this season and beyond, it needs quality play from its young defensive backs. That includes cornerbacks DJ Turner and Cam Taylor-Britt and safety Jordan Battle, who has started to gain more snaps over veteran Vonn Bell. Having a quality, yet inexpensive, secondary will help the Bengals build around Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is looking for a massive long-term deal. — Ben Baby

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Chances to make the playoffs: 34.4%
Chances to win the AFC West: 0.1%

An elite defense led by defensive end Zach Allen and cornerback Pat Surtain II — along with improving play from rookie quarterback Bo Nix — has the Broncos in surprising contention. Granted, their past four wins came against teams with three wins or fewer, and a defense-first approach is less reliable, so the odds are against them. But the Broncos have legitimate playoff hopes right now, which is already an upset. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Finish with at least six home wins. One of the biggest things the Broncos have squandered during their eight-year playoff drought is their considerable home-field advantage. The Broncos are 2-2 this season at home and were 5-4 in 2023, a far cry from Mike Shanahan’s four 8-0 home campaigns during his 14 seasons as head coach or the 7-1 or better home record of three of Peyton Manning’s four teams. The path to consistent playoff contention is the return of six-wins-or-better home seasons and being above .500 in the division. The team hasn’t done both of those things since 2015 — its last playoff season. — Jeff Legwold

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Chances to make the playoffs: 27.6%
Chances to win the AFC South: 5.7%

The Colts simultaneously felt bad enough about quarterback Anthony Richardson and good enough about their playoff chances that they cast aside the former No. 4 pick for Joe Flacco in hopes of sneaking into the postseason. I’m somewhat wary. Even though Flacco has been more efficient than Richardson, he has a 46.8 QBR since 2022, and he just threw three picks in Sunday’s loss. Those aren’t the typical characteristics for a savior. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Take advantage of a soft schedule. The composite record of the four teams the Colts have beaten is 15-20. Just one of those teams, the Steelers, currently has a winning record. But with games against the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Jaguars in December, the Colts can remain in the wild-card conversation if they beat the teams they are supposed to. — Stephen Holder

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Chances to make the playoffs: 18.4%
Chances to win the NFC West: 11.5%

It boils down to one question: Can the return of key players from injuries boost the Rams and get them into the playoffs? Los Angeles recently got receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the fold. And guards Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson are set to return to the offensive line. We know a healthy Rams offense can be dangerous. But can they stay healthy, and will it be enough? — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Win the NFC West. After a 1-4 start, the Rams have won three in a row following their bye week to go from last place in the NFC West to the thick of contention. The Rams don’t have the easiest remaining path — they have the 11th-hardest remaining strength of schedule compared to 29th for the Cardinals — but they have shown themselves to be a drastically different team when healthy. — Sarah Barshop

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Tier 6: Stranger things have happened

Chances to make the playoffs: 22%
Chances to win the NFC South: 13.8%

Injuries to wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans helped derail a season that started so promisingly. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has played quite well and Evans should return, so there’s hope — especially because Tampa Bay faces the easiest schedule in the league, per the FPI, the rest of the way. Two losses to the Falcons certainly hurt the Bucs’ chances for a division title, so a wild-card berth is their more likely playoff path. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Make the playoffs. Despite being without Evans, Godwin and cornerback Jamel Dean (Evans and Dean are expected to return), there’s a sense of calm because, as several players have noted, “We’ve been here before.” The Bucs won five out of their last six games last season to win the NFC South, and they face only one winning team after their Week 11 bye. — Jenna Laine

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Chances to make the playoffs: 6.3%
Chances to win the NFC West: 3.7%

In retrospect, the Seahawks’ hot start looks more like a product of a soft early schedule. Since then, they have lost five of six games and dropped to 22nd in the FPI’s rankings. They have struggled to run the ball, ranking 30th in run block win rate and in EPA per designed carry. Seattle has to win one of its next two games — at the 49ers or vs. the Cardinals — to have any chance at the postseason. Even if it wins both, it will still be an uphill battle. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Stop hurting themselves. To have any hope of making the playoffs, the Seahawks need to stop making preventable mistakes. In their past two games, they’ve botched three snaps, had a goal-line play ruined when center Connor Williams stepped on Geno Smith’s foot and committed 23 penalties for 177 yards. They’re now the most penalized team in the NFL, and they have committed a league-high 17 false starts. — Brady Henderson

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Tier 7: Yes, I’m telling you there’s a (slight) chance

Chances to make the playoffs: 8.6%
Chances to win the AFC East: 0.1%

Going into Week 10, you could see how the Jets could talk themselves into thinking they could make a run. They finally had Davante Adams and Haason Reddick and had just beaten the Texans. Could they make a playoff push in the home stretch? The Cardinals slammed that possibility back in New York’s face with a 31-6 dismantling on Sunday. It is not literally impossible the Jets make the playoffs. But it’s very close. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Determine if interim Jeff Ulbrich can be the long-term coach. Ulbrich is popular among players and management, but he is 1-4 since replacing Saleh, and this is a bottom-line business. It will be a disappointing season if the Jets fall short of the playoffs, so Ulbrich faces an uphill climb. But maybe a spirited stretch run will convince ownership he’s the right man for the job. That he’s a defensive-minded coach probably works against him, but you never know. He has the support of Rodgers, which counts for something. — Rich Cimini

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Chances to make the playoffs: 8.1%
Chances to win the AFC East: Less than 0.1%

I’d say the four games without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sank the Dolphins, but they’ve won only one game with him entering Monday night’s contest against the Rams. Miami hasn’t been able to get the running game going, ranking 29th in EPA per designed carry. Squinting at the roster — which still has Tagovailoa and receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on offense and talent on defense (though losing Jaelan Phillips for the season hurt) — maybe it’s possible to imagine an improbable run. But it is improbable. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Get back to .500 before Week 16. The Dolphins’ playoff odds are marginal, but if they can go 5-1 over their next six games, they will put themselves back into the AFC playoff picture — or at least in position to salvage a winning record. Four of those games come against teams with losing records, but Miami will have to win at least two road games against the Rams, Packers or Texans. Anything less would effectively end its season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

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Chances to make the playoffs: 4.3%
Chances to win the NFC North: 0.1%

The Bears looked good early, starting 4-2. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had been impressive in back-to-back games, and the FPI gave Chicago a 42% chance to reach the playoffs at that point. Fast forward and Williams — who ranks 28th in QBR (38.3) — might need more development time. Losses to the Commanders and Cardinals — two potential wild-card competitors — could prove crucial. But the pass defense has been elite, and if Williams can pick up his play, this promising team could improve quickly. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Determine whether this coaching staff is the right fit. The Bears overhauled their offense (new coordinator, QB, RB and 2 WRs), but it is statistically worse than it was in 2023 in a handful of categories. While the organization is trying to break the cycle of prevalent turnover when developing a young quarterback, it needs to determine whether it has the right coaches to guide Williams. His rookie season cannot be viewed as a throwaway year, so a change might be warranted if the staff isn’t putting Williams in the best place for long-term success. — Courtney Cronin

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Tier 8: Rest up for 2025

Chances to make the playoffs: 2.8%
Chances to win the AFC North: Less than 0.1%

The Browns’ season — and probably the Deshaun Watson era — has been over for some time. Before he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, Watson recorded a miserable 22.4 QBR that ranks last in the league. He wasn’t the only problem — the team’s EPA per play against the blitz is an almost astonishing minus-0.33 — but there was no winning with this version of Watson. It’s time for Cleveland to find a new quarterback. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Find young cornerstones to build around. The Browns are possibly headed toward a top-five pick and have one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. General manager Andrew Berry doesn’t think a rebuild is necessary, so figuring out which young players are worth building around is paramount for a quick turnaround. Wide receiver Cedric Tillman and defensive tackle Mike Hall Jr. — who was suspended five games without pay for violating the league’s personal conduct policy — are recent draft picks who have flashed and will get extended playing time the remainder of the season. — Daniel Oyefusi

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Chances to make the playoffs: 2%
Chances to win the AFC South: 1.1%

The Titans added to their roster this offseason, preparing to take advantage of a potential Will Levis breakout. Those were rational moves, but Levis’ breakout never came. Now Tennessee is back to the drawing board and not just at quarterback, as it ranks 29th in pass block win rate. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Continue to evaluate Levis. Tennessee’s future quarterback might not be on the roster, especially if the Titans land a high draft pick. Coach Brian Callahan said this season is dedicated to getting a full evaluation of Levis, but a Grade 2 AC sprain kept him out of three games before he returned for Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. Given the strides the offensive line has made since Levis last played, the final eight games should be an opportunity for a clean assessment. — Turron Davenport

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Chances to make the playoffs: 1.5%
Chances to win the AFC South: 0.6%

The Jaguars shouldn’t be this bad at pass defense, not with edge rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. But they rank last in EPA allowed per dropback, even though they picked off Sam Darnold three times on Sunday. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been sneakily solid in terms of efficiency — he ranks 10th in QBR (61.1) — but it’s too late and now Lawrence is hurt, too. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Evaluate players for 2025. Two players to watch are wide receiver Parker Washington and offensive tackle Walker Little. Washington has taken over for Christian Kirk (broken collarbone), and a second-half surge could make the Jaguars consider moving on from Kirk, who carries a $24.4 million cap hit in 2025. After they traded Cam Robinson, Little will be the left tackle for the rest of the season. He’s in the final year of his rookie contract, and Jacksonville wants to determine if he’s worth re-signing or if it’s better to move right tackle Anton Harrison and find a new right tackle in 2025. — Michael DiRocco

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Chances to make the playoffs: 1.3%
Chances to win the NFC South: 0.6%

It all came crashing down after a 2-0 start. The firing of Dennis Allen and the trade of cornerback Marshon Lattimore were signs the team might accept the reality that it needs to tear itself down first and rebuild to contend again. It will not be easy, as the Saints are more than $68 million over the 2025 cap according to Roster Management System. This is going to be a multiyear process. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Generate positive momentum. After a win in interim coach Darren Rizzi’s debut, the Saints need to get the fan base back on their side with two more home games coming up. Moving on from Allen was a start after the crowd left in droves in a game last month, but the team will also need to prove it has some hope for the future. New Orleans will have to string together some wins to end the season. — Katherine Terrell

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Chances to make the playoffs: 1%
Chances to win the AFC West: Less than 0.1%

The Raiders were caught in no-man’s land coming into this season, adding talent such as defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and signing Gardner Minshew to be their quarterback but ultimately having little hope of success. The downside came to fruition, and the Raiders will be looking for another new quarterback in 2025. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Figure out if Desmond Ridder is the guy at QB. The Raiders already know what they have in Aidan O’Connell, who is on IR with a broken right thumb. And they’ve seen the turnover machine that is Minshew. With a new interim offensive coordinator in Scott Turner and a new senior adviser in Norv Turner, the Raiders can purportedly go all-in on Ridder, signed off the Cardinals’ practice squad on Oct. 21, to see exactly what they have. — Paul Gutierrez

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Chances to make the playoffs: 1%
Chances to win the AFC East: Less than 0.1%

This was always a rebuilding season, and by far the most important part of the second half of the season is the development of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. That will set the course of this franchise for years to come. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Cut Maye’s turnovers in half. Maye has flashed promise since taking over as the starter in Week 6 but pinpointed turnovers as the top area he’d like to improve. “I’ve got to protect the football,” Maye said. In his first five starts, Maye threw five interceptions and lost two fumbles. An average of 1.4 turnovers per game isn’t winning football. — Mike Reiss

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Chances to make the playoffs: 0.9%
Chances to win the NFC East: 0.1%

It’s over. Maybe the Cowboys could have held out a prayer with a healthy Dak Prescott. Without him? Forget it. Key injuries to edge rusher Micah Parsons and cornerback DaRon Bland have hurt the defense, which has been miserable. They are tied for last (!) in EPA allowed per play after ranking fourth in the same category in 2023. The offense hasn’t been much better, even with Prescott, as it has struggled to find a second receiver for Prescott or run the ball. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Figure out the offensive line. If the Cowboys are going to be good again in 2024 or even 2025 and beyond, it has to start with their line. This might be the last season with future Hall of Famer Zack Martin, but the other four starters might be back in 2025. Left guard Tyler Smith is a high-level player, but right tackle Terence Steele must find his form again after being two years removed from a knee injury. Rookie Tyler Guyton needs to take a bigger step at left tackle, while rookie center Cooper Beebe must progress beyond being fine in the next two months. — Todd Archer

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Chances to make the playoffs: 0.1%
Chances to win the NFC South: 0.1%

The only benefit to being so far out of contention is that teams can give playing time to young players such as quarterback Bryce Young and wide receiver Jalen Coker and concentrate on development. But the Panthers are a long way from being a winner. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Make a decision on Young. The Panthers made Young the No. 1 pick of the 2023 draft believing he would be their quarterback of the future. He has been anything but with a 4-17 record, though he has shown recent progress. Continued improvement would be ideal for the organization, but one way or another, it has to make a decision. — David Newton

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Chances to make the playoffs: Less than 0.1%
Chances to win the NFC East: Less than 0.1%

The Daniel Jones era in New York is ending. The only question is whether the Giants turn the ball over to backup quarterback Drew Lock before the end of the season. Either way, they will be in the market for a new quarterback in 2025 and will look back on the contract they handed Jones prior to the 2023 season as a major unforced error. — Walder

Tangible second-half goal: Show any sort of progress. This season was supposed to be about building the infrastructure with young players to point them in the right direction for the future. Instead, the Giants are 2-8 and players such as second-year cornerback Deonte Banks have gone in the wrong direction. Owner John Mara said back in the spring that progress “starts with winning more games.” That’s going to be tough at this point, but seeing some young players trending in the right direction could provide some hope. — Jordan Raanan

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