Is that real? Week 10

Is that real? is a weekly article that addresses the question of whether player performance is real, sustainable, or likely to change in the future. Using statistics and analysis, the article will help decipher difficult situations in the league.

Is Kyren Williams fading?

Through the first six weeks of the season, Williams scored 19.8 points per game, ranking 4th in points per game. Over the last three weeks, Kyren Williams has averaged 17.6 points per game, which ranks 12th in points per game over that span.

The decline means Williams fits the position but has one of the most solid roles in the league. Over the past three weeks, Williams ranks third in expected points per game (19.8). Williams fell short of his expectations, with 242 rushing yards compared to 273 expected rushing yards based on his carries. Additionally, Williams has 2 touchdowns and an expected score of 2.5.

Even though his production is down compared to the position in general, Williams plays a big role in the stretch run. Williams has by far the highest snap percentage at the position (88%), while he also ranks first in his team’s rushing attempts (78%) and route participation (65%), albeit by a smaller margin than his snap share.

As unlikely as it may be that his college production profile translates to an elite, senior role in an offense, Williams has found that role. This is despite the team selecting Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL. Additionally, the team’s dropback rate is 4% below expectations this season and showed a strong commitment to getting the ball into Williams’ hands even with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup.

Conclusion: Despite being a running back for the last three weeks, Kyren Williams has one of the best situations in the entire league. He remains a difference-making player and a potential target for teams looking to increase their cap in the long run.

Khalil Shakir as a top 20 option?

Over the last three weeks, Khalil Shakir has posted 14.8 PPG, which ranks 19th at the wide receiver position. He did this while the Buffalo offense acquired freshman Amari Cooper. Cooper had a smaller role in Week 7 before getting an entry-level stint in Week 8. Cooper missed Week 9 with a wrist injury.

Shakir came out of this situation better than before Cooper’s arrival, scoring 11.4 points per game, a result of the counter-initiative.

Over the last three weeks, Shakir has completed 72% of the team’s dropbacks, similar to his 68% over the first six weeks of the season. His target rate has increased from 20% to 28%, and his target share has increased from 20% to 24%.

While Shakir plays a little more, he is also targeted more often on his routes. The curious thing about his production is that his role has changed. Before Cooper’s arrival, Shakir had an average depth of target (aDOT) of a paltry 5.2. On the season, that would be the second-lowest aDOT of any receiver with 70 or more routes, ahead of only Wan’Dale Robinson (4.2). Since Cooper’s arrival, Shakir’s aDOT is 0.7, giving him a league-lowest 2.9 this season.

Shakir has developed into a gadget player with a high target rate. This has resulted in Shakir having the most catches in the league since Week 7 (22), which has helped him significantly in PPR scoring formats. Shakir is expected to have 0.5 receiving touchdowns and 0 over the last three weeks, a dismal rate for a receiver with such volume.

Verdict: Shakir has become a different player with Cooper on offense. He fills a short, tackle-like role in the Buffalo offense, but that should diminish once Cooper is fully integrated into the offense and healthy. Shakir plays an integral role in Buffalo’s offense, but is more likely to project him as a WR3-4 on offense.

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