Georgia’s omission from the 12-team CFP projection shows that strength of schedule is a myth

Whoever does something first is often at a disadvantage. Everything You are setting a precedent and there is no manual to resolve difficult situations.

That’s the space the College Football Playoff selection committee occupies as it moves through an expanded postseason field. After releasing the second Top 25 of the season on Tuesday, we now have a good understanding of the overarching message the committee is sending to programs far and wide: Strength of schedule is a myth.

Look no further than the Georgia Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s team landed at No. 12 this week after falling to the No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels and trails the No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide.

That’s as it should be, as the Bulldogs lose in both Oxford, Miss., and Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Head-to-head is everything unless you can put the No. 22 LSU Tigers behind the No. 21 South Carolina Gamecocks They were brawling on the road just a few weeks ago (insert shrug emoji) .

But why is Georgia the first team to leave the field when the majority of the teams ahead have even poorer records? (The Boise State Broncos are seeded 12th because they are considered the fifth-seeded conference champion.) It should matter when facing one of the sport’s toughest teams, but oddly enough, that’s the Bulldogs benefiting right now not from doubt.

Georgia is coming off a convincing 15-point road win at the No. 3 Texas Longhorns. The Bulldogs defeated the No. 20 Clemson Tigers by four touchdowns on neutral ground. They did it all while playing just two FBS teams at home before this Saturday’s showdown between the hedgerows against No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers came. It’s a hard road no matter how good you are.

Also notable is that it is a resume flush with more ranked wins than the Longhorns, No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions and No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers. Combined. It’s also more than one other team that has been living dangerously in recent weeks, the No. 9 Miami Hurricanes.

The selection committee has one job in an era of superconferences, varying conference schedules and a lack of productive non-league meetings: to consider the strength of the schedule and adjust the rankings accordingly. So far that is not the case, because there is clear evidence that victories and defeats determine who those victories and defeats are against.

“We look at strength of schedule in every comparison we make,” Michigan Wolverines athletic director and selection committee chairman Warde Manuel told the media on Tuesday. “For each team we see different data points and the strength of the schedule is always there. Of course we also watch the games and see how a team plays, see the results of the games and how the teams play. We take [strength of schedule] take into consideration. This is one of the things we look for at the outset every time we review and compare teams to others.”

The group of former players, coaches and administrators who meet in the Dallas area like to say they’re starting over every week. As far as the process is concerned, that’s true. But if you really look at things with a blank slate, the additional data points lead less to a coherent way of thinking and more to headaches.

The BYU Cougars moved up to No. 6 despite narrowly escaping the Holy War against an unranked and struggling rival, the Utah Utes. Indiana also advanced despite a close matchup against the Michigan Wolverines. The Vols won on the road against the also undermanned Mississippi State Bulldogs and just held on. The No. 14 SMU Mustangs weren’t in the mix last weekend, but it’s increasingly looking like their only chance of getting in the field is to win the ACC, despite a single, narrow loss to current big-leaguers. 12 favorites.

Manuel noted that Texas, now the SEC’s top-ranked team, not only rose because of losses by the teams ahead of them, but also cited a “decisive” win against the Florida Gators as improving the picture of their play. Florida was reliant on its walk-on third-string quarterback, so a lopsided result was likely expected in Austin, but it’s still hard to come to terms with the fact that the third-best team in the country has zero wins over ranked teams and Their best win was a narrow victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores.

This isn’t a Vandy team like years past — just ask Alabama — but it’s hard to overcome the mental logic of thinking this is just fine and dandy.

Nobody is saying Georgia should be in the top five again, or even out of it. It didn’t look like the program was one of the favorites to win the national title in the preseason (and that early opinion shouldn’t matter). Quarterback Carson Beck has struggled and become an interception machine. The offensive line isn’t getting much pressure up front and even Smart’s normally reliable defense has slipped.

Yet here we are, and the committee has made the Bulldogs almost a sympathetic figure. Georgia has had to run the gauntlet and instead of considering this in comparison to the competition, it is overlooked.

“Every team in America will understand what I’m saying if the best thing people can do is keep winning and then drop everything in terms of rankings, whatever it may be,” Manuel said.

How very Al Davis of him.

Just win, babyisn’t the official slogan of the College Football Playoff as the 12-team era begins, but based on the committee’s two-week rankings, it’s increasingly looking like it should be.