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Tropical Storm Sara could develop into a hurricane

by November 13, 2024

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The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may not be over in the U.S., even after five hurricane landfalls on the Gulf Coast and estimated damages of more than $120 billion.

A tropical wave moving westward in the Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical storm over the next few days, with a 90% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday morning . It would be the 18th named storm of the season and could be named Sara.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled to survey the disturbance later today, the hurricane center said.

At least one computer model used to forecast hurricanes suggests Sara could become a major hurricane threatening the Florida coast next week. However, whether it reaches the Gulf of Mexico remains to be seen, with several factors at play. Meanwhile, heavy rain is forecast in Jamaica over the next day or so.

More: Storm tracker: Caribbean system could become Hurricane Sara next week

An official forecast will not be available until the disturbance becomes an organized tropical storm with a defined circulation center. However, the hurricane center said Wednesday that “further development is likely as disquiet over the western Caribbean Sea continues into the weekend.”

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions to strengthen early next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert for WPLG-TV in South Florida, in his daily update Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico hit a record high this week, according to ocean heat content charts compiled by Brian McNoldy, a senior scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School became. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Two key questions will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the U.S., Lowry and other meteorologists said. The system is expected to move slowly northwestward early next week.

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, its path will likely be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday.

The chaotic nature of the model progressions suggests a “high level of uncertainty” in the forecast for now, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken it. However, he said if it remained off the coast of the Caribbean, there was a chance it would strengthen and be steered into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to predict potential intensity suggest that a potential hurricane with winds in excess of 111 miles per hour could reach Category 3 status, and one suggests that Could reach Category 4 status, according to meteorologist Levi Cowan’s website Tropicaltidbits.com.

If a sixth hurricane were to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the 1886 record for most landfalls in a season on the U.S. Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. With five hurricanes so far this season, 2024 joins 2005 and 2020 as the second-most hurricane landfalls in the Gulf in a single season on record.

November hurricanes are rather unusual. According to NOAA records, only three hurricanes have hit the U.S. or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935 and Hurricane Kate in 1985.

A busy 2024 hurricane season

In terms of the number of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy, 2024 will be the 11th most active season so far since meteorologists began tracking hurricanes via satellite in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist at Colorado State University. The Cyclone Energy Index calculates a season’s total energy based on the frequency of storms and each hurricane’s maximum wind speed over its lifetime.

According to Klotzbach, the more active seasons include 2005 and 2020, the two years in which the hurricane center abandoned its initial list of names and resorted to a replacement list. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred this century.

The 2024 season is pretty much in line with NOAA and Colorado State University’s preseason forecasts for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Only the storms mentioned fall short of these seasonal forecasts. Although the season got off to a busy start, including a record-breaking Beryl, a lull in August surprised forecasters, but 12 named storms have developed since the start of September.

Landmaking hurricanes in 2024

beryl – Matagorda County, TexasDebbie – Taylor County, Florida and South CarolinaFrancine – Terrebonne Parish, LouisianaHelene – Taylor County, FloridaMilton – Sarasota County, Florida

Read more about the 2024 season

Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate change and the environment for USA TODAY. She has been writing about hurricanes, tornadoes and severe weather for more than 30 years. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X.

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