Tropical Storm Sara is likely to form in the Caribbean

The 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Sara, is likely to form in the Caribbean and head toward the Gulf of Mexico next week, but the forecast includes great uncertainty.

Current status: The broad low pressure area that will drive this tropical development is located in the Caribbean Sea. It is now referred to as Invest 99L, a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to identify features they monitor for possible future developments.

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The NHC has scheduled the first Hurricane Hunter flight mission in Invest 99L for Wednesday afternoon.

In any case, this low will likely develop into a tropical depression somewhere in the red-shaded area on the map below once it becomes better defined over the next day or two, according to the NHC.

Future strength, route in the Caribbean: Computer modeling forecasts indicate that this system could soon become Tropical Storm Sara after first developing into a depression late this week. And with relatively low wind shear and record warm waters in the Caribbean for mid-November, Sara could develop into a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea.

The future course is complicated, uncertain and likely to change in the coming days. So check back with Weather.com and The Weather Channel app for updates.

For now, we expect this system to remain in the western Caribbean region through at least Sunday or Monday, slowly moving west toward Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Future Sara could stall near Central America for a few days or drift east, and it could even move inland and drift slightly. In any case, this slow creep could lead to heavy rainfall with potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

But there are still many unknowns at this point when it comes to the impact future Sara could have on these areas.

These factors include possible land interactions with Central America and then Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, as well as uncertainty about atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico.

Changes to the forecast are likely in the coming days, so stakeholders in the Western Caribbean and Florida should monitor this situation closely.

(For even more detailed weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute detailed forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Typical tropical activity in November

Hurricane season comes to an end in November, but that doesn’t mean we won’t experience storms. This November has already produced Rafael.

In the satellite era—since 1966—November has produced an average of one storm every one to two years and one hurricane every two to three years.

Parts of the Caribbean and Central America were more frequently hit hard by November hurricanes.

When a storm develops in November, it usually occurs in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwest or central Atlantic.

This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it that far south and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can contribute to storm formation.