Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 is forming and is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara

MIAMI— A disturbance that swirled over the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, and forecasters say the system is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara in the coming days.

The PTC designation allows the NHC and other governments to issue tropical weather watches and warnings when the disturbance is not yet severe tropical storm Strength, but is expected to get there soon with storm impacts occurring within 36 hours.

Some of these models show that the system, dubbed Invest 99L earlier Tuesday, could continue to strengthen and become a hurricane. Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of Honduras and tropical storm warnings have been issued for northern Nicaragua.

“The atmospheric pattern over the Caribbean appears to be extremely conducive to the further organization and strengthening of Like-Sara,” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. “The only apparent barrier to the system developing into an intense hurricane in the Caribbean appears to be its interaction with land.”

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What’s new on potential Tropical Cyclone 19?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is located in the Caribbean Sea approximately 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras. Peak winds are 30 mph and it is moving slowly westward.

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What is the forecast for potential Tropical Cyclone 19?

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The NHC says Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 will continue to move west toward the western Caribbean Sea and that showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are expected to occur in Jamaica over the next day.

Reinforcement is expected in the next few days. The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday and continue to strengthen as it approaches the coast of Central America.

The storm is expected to bring life-threatening rainfall of 10 to 20 inches in northern Honduras, with as much as 30 inches in isolated areas, according to the NHC.

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“These rainfall events will result in widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza,” the NHC said.

Tropical-storm-force winds of at least 40 mph are likely in the area through late Thursday, with the possibility of hurricane-force winds in eastern Honduras on Friday. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is possible along the coast of Honduras north of where the cyclone approaches or moves ashore.

Florida on alert as long-term forecasts indicate possible impacts from Sara

Sara is forecast to move through Central America over the weekend and into Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula by early next week.

“The steering currents in the Caribbean are very small,” says Norcross.

After that, computer forecast models suggest the system could recover as it lingers in the area and takes advantage of the warm water and low tide Wind shear.

From there, forecasters say a high pressure area will form north of the system next week, and where it forms will ultimately determine the path of future Sara.

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The steering currents could push the system toward Central America or, more likely, allow Sara to move north and enter the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week – and could eventually impact Florida.

“The fact that so many of the different computer forecast models point to a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change,” Norcross said. “As always when a system is just developing, the forecast errors are likely to be large.”

Norcross continued, saying that there’s nothing to do right now except stay updated, so be sure to download it for free FOX weather app and enable notifications to be informed of changes in the forecast.