Forecasts show a late-season tropical threat taking shape in the Caribbean

A new tropical threat is taking shape in the western Caribbean, forecast to likely become the 18th named storm of the busy Atlantic hurricane season within the next 24 hours.

The tropical system, currently in the western Caribbean, is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Sara by Thursday afternoon – just weeks before the official end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30.

The National Hurricane Center issued warnings Wednesday for the development of a potential tropical cyclone. Hurricane warnings are now in effect for parts of Honduras and tropical storm warnings are in effect for parts of Nicaragua.

The storm is expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to places such as Jamaica and the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua over the next 24 to 48 hours. Then it will get even stronger, and there is a chance that wind speeds will reach near hurricane status.

The system is expected to meander through the western Caribbean over the weekend, bringing heavy rain to Central America.

“The conditions are definitely favorable for this storm to run its course,” Marshall Shepherd, director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia and former president of the American Meteorological Society, told ABC News.

“This is definitely a storm we need to keep an eye on,” Shepherd added.

By Monday, the system will be in motion and is expected to move across Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, potentially hitting popular resort towns such as Cancun and Tulum. As things currently stand, the tropical storm is expected to make landfall near Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula sometime on Monday.

It is still too early to determine what the system will do when it reaches the Yucatán Peninsula. Interaction with land could significantly weaken the system and influence its future development. Some forecast models suggest the system could then move into the Gulf of Mexico, but it is still too early to realistically speculate on such details.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30 and has brought not only above-average activity but also several powerful storms.

Florida’s Gulf Coast has already been inundated by devastating hurricanes in recent months. In late September, Hurricane Helene hit Big Bend, Florida, before causing deadly flash floods in Asheville, North Carolina. Weeks later, Hurricane Milton made landfall south of Tampa Bay, causing a deadly storm surge on the Gulf Coast but also sparking record-breaking tornado activity in southeast Florida.

Tropical systems that develop in November tend to be more likely to be located in the western part of the tropical Atlantic, including the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told ABC News last month. The warm ocean temperatures could help increase the chances of a tropical cyclone forming this late in the season, Francis said.

Although rare, tropical system formation outside of the traditional hurricane season is certainly possible, records show.

In December 2005, Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Storm Zeta struck the Atlantic basin after the official hurricane season ended. According to NOAA, Hurricane Alex in 2016 was an “unusual” tropical cyclone that formed in January.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, according to the National Hurricane Center, but the bulk of the tropical activity came a little later this year. Hurricane Helene formed on September 24th and Hurricane Milton formed on October 5th.

“If we have an active season like we expected this year, it is not uncommon to see storms in November,” Shepherd said.

ABC News’ Max Golembo and Mel Griffin contributed to this report.