17 things to keep an eye on as the Colts try to rebound against Josh Allen

by Junna Base November 9, 2024

INDIANAPOLIS – The Colts fought their way back into the playoffs after a slow start, but after losing to playoff contenders in back-to-back games in discouraging fashion, Indianapolis already feels like it’s out of control of its playoff hopes .

The competition isn’t getting any easier.

Indianapolis returns home to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time in three weeks to take on the surging Buffalo Bills, four straight winners and in full command of the AFC East, on Sunday at 1 p.m. (WTTV-4). .

The Colts (4-5) start the week one game behind Denver for the final playoff spot in the AFC, but Cincinnati has caught up with Indianapolis and suddenly it feels like the race is down to four teams – Colts, Bengals , Broncos and Chargers – goes two spots barring a Pittsburgh collapse.

Buffalo (7-2) is already four games ahead of the rest of its division and is trying to stay within striking distance of unbeaten Kansas City long enough to make a race for the No. 1 seed.

But at this point in the season, there appears to be a little more at stake for Indianapolis.

Can the Colts stop Josh Allen?

1. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level. The big-play skills that have always been there are still there, but Allen has kept the mistakes that plagued him last season to a minimum – Allen has thrown just two interceptions and recorded 11 sacks. Behind Allen, Buffalo is averaging 28.9 points, the fourth-highest in the NFL and more than any opponent the Indianapolis defense has faced to date.

2. Allen’s 11 sacks this season are the fewest in the NFL, making Buffalo a poor opponent for an Indianapolis defense that has relied heavily on its pass rush to make up for other deficiencies . The Colts are just 18th in the NFL with 20 sacks, but the pass rush in Indianapolis has been significantly more impressive since the return of DeForest Buckner. The problem with Allen is that he is big, strong and fast, which makes him difficult to defeat.

3rd first round pick Laiatu Latu recorded just two sacks in the first nine games of the season and his pressure rate has dipped slightly over the past two weeks. Latu’s job doesn’t get any easier this week; Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins was one of the best blockers in the NFL.

4. Allen faces injury uncertainty at wide receiver. Rookie wideout Keon Coleman suffered a wrist injury in Buffalo’s win last week, a game new target Amari Cooper already missed due to his own wrist injury. Slot receiver Khalil Shakir leads Buffalo with 42 catches for 471 yards and two touchdowns, but Coleman and Cooper are expected to be the explosive weapons, the underdogs who would test Indianapolis’ cornerbacks Jaylon Jones And Samuel Womack III.

Expect a big day from Bills TE Dalton Kincaid

5. Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid ranks second on the team with 32 catches, 332 yards and two touchdowns. Indianapolis has 57 tight ends, the most catches in the NFL, and 533 yards allowed. Even if Allen misses his best targets on the outside, he will have good targets in the middle Julian Blackmon struggled to repeat his breakthrough performance in the 2023 season.

6. Buffalo’s running game ranks 17th in the NFL in yards (119.1) and 19th in yards per carry (4.38), but Bills star James Cook is dangerous, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, 8.9 yards per catch and eight touchdowns. Cook has been on a bit of a roll this season, but the Colts have given up 149.8 yards per game on the ground, and Allen’s presence means Indianapolis is unable to stop Cook.

7. Bills returner Brandon Codrington could make life difficult for a Colts coverage unit that has shown a crack here and there. Codrington is the fifth-best player in the NFL, averaging 11.9 yards and averaging 32.5 yards per kick return.

8. Both teams have dealt with disagreements at kicker. Colts kicker Matt Gay missed three field goals from more than 50 yards but made the rest of his shots; Bills kicker Tyler Bass missed three field goals on 18 attempts and three misses on 30 extra point attempts, prompting Buffalo to make contingency plans.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor vs. Buffalo lead defense

9. The Colts posted a season-worst 68 rushing yards against Minnesota, but Buffalo’s defense wasn’t nearly as strong as the Vikings’ second-ranked rush defense. The Bills are giving up 4.81 yards per carry, 26th in the NFL, and 123.4 yards per game (15th). Indianapolis Star Jonathan Taylor has been good when healthy this season, already at 502 yards and 4.8 yards per carry, and he has made life difficult for the Bills in the past.

10. Indianapolis needs to get Taylor to stay out of third-and-long situations, a problem for the Colts no matter who is playing quarterback. The Colts are converting just 36.6% of third downs, ranking 21st in the NFL. Buffalo’s defense also ranks 21st, and that could be due to the Bills’ struggles against the run.

11. The Colts are sticking with the 39-year-old Joe Flaccowho has struggled to make explosive plays for much of this season, aside from a fourth-quarter blast Alec Pierce against Jacksonville’s terrible secondary. Flacco averages 6.6 yards per attempt and the Bills excel at limiting yards. Buffalo allows 6.19 yards per dropback, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

12. Michael Pittman Jr., the Colts’ leading receiver the past three years, was finally forced to the bench due to a back injury that has been plaguing him for more than a month. Indianapolis needs a rookie wide receiver Adonai Mitchellwho has 12 catches for 140 yards on 32 targets this season, and Ashton Dulinwho is so physically strong that he can compete with Pittman in the blocking game, but only has two catches for 67 yards.

Josh Downs shines with Joe Flacco at quarterback

13. In Pittman’s absence Josh Downs is clearly Flacco’s favorite destination. Downs leads the Colts with 38 catches, 411 yards and three touchdowns this season, and most of that production has come with Flacco at the helm. Downs has 30 of his 38 catches in the four games Flacco has played so far.

14. Indianapolis needs to find a way to get Pierce on the field. Pierce leads the NFL with 22.9 yards per carry but has had trouble getting deep since the Jacksonville game. Facing a variety of coverages designed to contain him, Pierce’s longest catch was 16 yards in his last four games.

15. Bills defensive ends Gregory Rousseau (4.5 sacks), AJ Epenesa (4) and Von Miller (3) provided most of the pressure on Buffalo’s pass rush, putting pressure on the Colts’ right tackle Braden Smithalong with an Indianapolis team facing uncertainty at left tackle for the second week in a row. Colts left tackle Bernhard Raimann missed last week’s game due to a concussion and despite being a freshman Matt Goncalves Buffalo held up well to Minnesota’s attacks and presents another challenge.

16. Veterans Center Ryan Kelly is now on injured reserve, but the Colts feel good about the rookie center Tanor Bortoliniwho already has two starts to his name this season. Indianapolis needs more pressure from the middle in the running game, especially in the middle and on the right side where the freshman is Dalton Tucker has started since the injury Will Fries.

17. Despite all the confusion at the top in Indianapolis, Buffalo’s pass rush isn’t nearly as dangerous as Minnesota’s. The Bills rank 21st in the NFL in sack percentage; Flacco should have time to get the ball away.

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