A county-by-county breakdown of how Trump won Pennsylvania

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 was driven by an overall voter shift in most places and in most demographic groups compared to 2020 – with a new analysis of precinct data in central Pennsylvania revealing additional details about how Trump won.

The NBC News Decision Desk collected and monitored county-level voting results in 50 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, or more than 8,300 of the state’s approximately 9,000 counties. This granular data provides a detailed look at what’s happening neighborhood by neighborhood and block by block in the largest battleground state in the country.

On average, Pennsylvania’s electoral districts shifted 1.6 percentage points toward Republicans and 1.6 percentage points away from Democrats – a total increase of 3.2 points, moving Pennsylvania from a 1-point Democratic victory in 2020 turned into a roughly 2-point Republican victory in 2024.

The chart below shows the difference between Trump’s 2020 vote share and his 2024 share in Pennsylvania counties. Points above the dotted black line are counties where Trump exceeded his vote share four years ago. The red line shows the average shift in Trump support from 2020 to 2024.

On average, Trump improved his vote share in almost every county in Pennsylvania in 2020, except for those where he had already received more than 80% of the vote in 2020. Trump’s biggest improvements came where he received 20 to 30% of the vote in 2020 – meaning he was able to lose significantly less in the previously very Democratic parts of the state.

Trump’s overperformance in Democratic areas was evident when looking at precinct results in the Greater Philadelphia area – a key region for Biden’s victory in 2020. In 2024, voters in Philadelphia and its four suburban counties made up nearly 33% of all voters in the state.

The map shows that nearly all of the region’s 3,100 counties shifted their votes in Trump’s favor. While there are some counties that have moved in Harris’ favor (blue on the map), Trump improved his vote share in 82% of the region’s counties in 2020.

While Harris and Biden both won this region handily, Harris’ vote margin was nearly 120,000 votes smaller than Biden’s. That’s a significant decline: Biden carried the state by 82,000 votes in 2020.

The regional map also shows that the counties where Trump improved the most were heavily in the city of Philadelphia.

The map of Philadelphia on the left shows Harris handily winning the vast majority of the city’s 1,700 precincts. But the right-hand side shows Harris falling short of Biden’s margins, with nearly 84% of the city’s precincts leaning toward Trump.

On average, Trump performed 2 percentage points better in Philadelphia counties – similar overall to the rest of the state. However, there are key differences between different types of neighborhoods.

The largest of these shifts occurred in neighborhoods in North and Northeast Philadelphia with high concentrations of Hispanic residents. It’s further evidence of a recurring pattern in pre-election polls and the NBC News Exit Poll, which showed Trump significantly improving his vote share among Latino voters across the country, including in Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, the blue areas that have shifted toward Harris in northwest and central/south Philadelphia (including the high-density downtown region of Center City) are neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of college-educated residents. NBC exit poll results showed Trump’s support among this group in Pennsylvania fell 3 percentage points from its 2020 level.