Alabama vs. LSU odds, best bets: Best ATS picks for the crucial Week 11 matchup

No Week 11 game in college football has more at stake than Alabama’s prime-time away matchup against old SEC West rival LSU on Saturday night.

These two have delivered one instant classic after another over the last few years, and given the stakes this weekend, this will be a must-see.

The first College Football Playoff rankings of this year were released earlier this week, with Alabama (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 11 and LSU (6-2, 3-1 SEC) at No. 15.

Entering Week 11, both are still alive to make the 12-team CFP, with Bama at -150 odds (DraftKings) to make the playoffs and LSU at +150 odds (DK ) in the same market. But a win for Brian Kelly’s Tigers tonight on Saturday would all but eliminate the Tide while giving a huge boost to LSU’s CFP hopes.

The battle between the Tide and Tigers begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Alabama vs. LSU betting odds

Below are the odds for Saturday night’s primetime SEC battle in three markets: spread, moneyline and overall odds.

Alabama vs. LSU betting preview, analysis

Alabama Crimson Tide betting preview

Bama’s first season of the post-Nick Saban era was a roller coaster ride.

Back in September, first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer was Tuscaloosa’s star after a thrilling 41-34 victory over Georgia that propelled Bama to the No. 1 ranking in the nation and QB Jalen Milroe to the top of the Heisman Trophy race.

But the Tide suffered a surprising upset loss to Vanderbilt the following week. Bama lost again two weeks later on the road in Knoxville, seriously jeopardizing its CFP hopes — or at least eliminating the margin for error the rest of the day.

Thanks to the win over Georgia, this team has a real chance of reaching the expanded CFP if they win. But that will be much easier said than done, starting with Saturday’s perilous trip to Death Valley.

LSU Tigers betting preview

Two weeks ago, LSU arrived in College Station on a six-game winning streak and was off to a great start. The Tigers built a 17-7 halftime lead in this game after stifling QB Conner Weigman and the Texas A&M offense for 30 minutes.

But the Aggies’ QB switch from Weigman to speedy dual threat Marcel Reed in the third quarter caught the Tigers by surprise as Reed and A&M overran LSU down the stretch and won 38-23.

Both teams are coming off a bye, with Bama coming off a big win against Missouri in Week 9 before the idle week.

What to watch for in Alabama vs. LSU

In a battle between two quality teams, the first key to this matchup will be whether LSU can slow down Jalen Milroe on the floor. Given what Reed did to the Tigers D in their last game (the A&M backup ran nine times for 62 yards and 3 touchdowns and went 2-for-2 passes for 70 yards in less than two full quarters of action), expect DeBoer and the time to test the LSU front seven with a hefty dose of QB running.

A big reason why Bama is favored in this game is Milroe, who has already rushed for 12 touchdowns this year. However, he has struggled to get into the running game in three of the last four weeks, gaining just 57 yards on 39 carries against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Tennessee after shredding Georgia for 117 yards on 16 carries.

In his team’s 34-0 win over Mizzou in Week 9, Milroe was much more effective with his legs (11 carries for 50 yards and a TD). Still, he has had far less success since the Georgia game than he did in Weeks 1 through 4, when he totaled 273 rushing yards and eight rushing TDs.

The other key to this game is LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who has put up great numbers this year. However, against Ole Miss on October 12th and A&M on October 26th, he struggled with both his accuracy and turnovers. Nussemeier completed 50 percent or less of his passes in each of those games, with two picks against the Rebels and three — all in the second half — against the Aggies.

Bama’s defense has given up a lot of yards to good offenses this year – both Tennessee and Vanderbilt gained over 400 yards on the Tide, and Georgia gained over 500 yards against that defense – but it has made up for it by (usually) forcing turnovers.

The Bama defense totaled 14 (!) takeaways against Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and Missouri. Vanderbilt, the only SEC opponent this year to take the ball against the Bama D, moved the chains 26 times and hung 40 points on the Tide.

Alabama vs LSU Prediction

As a home coach in front of arguably the best crowd in college football, especially at night, LSU has a lot of advantages. Anyone who is fully convinced that Bama will go to Tiger Stadium and win should watch highlights of what happened in 2022, the last time the Tide traveled to Baton Rouge for a night game.

Before Jayden Daniels was a household name, Bryce Young and Bama lost in overtime at LSU 32-31 as 13.5-point favorites during Daniels’ junior season. With that in mind, we would be shocked if it didn’t come down to the final minutes.

But given Nussmeier’s struggles against the best defenses he’s faced this year, we’re guessing Alabama will have enough turnovers – and enough success on the football – to get star freshman WR Ryan Williams downfield – to win another memorable meeting between these teams.

Alabama vs. LSU Best ATS Bets

The only two LSU QBs to beat the Tide since 2011 were Joe Burrow (2019 in Tuscaloosa) and Daniels (2022 in Baton Rouge). With all due respect to Nussmeier, it’s safe to say he’s not quite at that level, at least not at this point in his career.

So we’re going with Bama to see it through and erase the narrow lead as the away favorite in a close contest that could result in a last-second field goal.

Our best bets for this game are Bama on the spread and the over. That’s a higher number than we would normally like, but both defenses have proven vulnerable to high-scoring offenses this year.

• Alabama -2.5 (-115 at bet365) 1 unit
• Over 58.5 (-110 on FanDuel) 0.75 units

Newsweek may receive an affiliate commission if you subscribe using the links in this article. Important details can be found in the sports betting provider’s general terms and conditions. Sports betting providers have no influence on newsroom reporting.