Another storm is brewing in the Caribbean and could potentially become Tropical Storm Sara

A new tropical system with the potential to become Tropical Storm Sara is expected soon and its impact on the Caribbean, Mexico and the United States will be worth monitoring.

Strong, storm-busting high-altitude winds protected the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Rafael last week, but tropical problems could reach the U.S. next week.

It’s another example of an Atlantic hurricane season that hasn’t played by the rules. Tropical activity was expected to subside in November, but thanks to exceptionally warm waters due to climate change, this could instead be the third named storm this month.

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According to the National Hurricane Center, this is currently a young storm area south of Jamaica with a high chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

The system could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane as it meanders over the very warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea – the same body of water that powered Rafael. It was expected to drift toward Central America and stall in the area over the weekend and early next week.

The forecast scenarios differ drastically from there and depend on how close the system comes to the Central American coast.

US threat?

There are a few possible scenarios for how powerful the storm could be or whether it could reach the U.S. next week.

It could make landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua this weekend and worsen over land, cut off from the warm water that supplies it. This scenario would bring strong winds and flooding to Central America, but could keep the storm away from the United States.

A storm that stays very close to the coast of Central America but does not make landfall would still trigger heavy rains there and could eventually emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week. It would likely result in a weaker storm that could lessen the impact if it reached the United States.

But if the system stays just a little further offshore and over enormously warm water, it could strengthen significantly — and potentially intensify quickly — as it stalls.

Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently the second warmest on record – just behind the record heat set in 2023. It is warmer than it should be at the height of hurricane season and could continue to produce unusually strong storms. Warmer waters lead to stronger storms and faster intensification as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.

It could then gradually turn northwest, heading for Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula or Cuba and possibly reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf is record warm for this time of year and could also boost or sustain any climate that reaches it.

This scenario would bring torrential, flooding rainfall and damaging winds to parts of Honduras, Nicaragua and surrounding areas for days before the system dissipates early next week. Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula or Cuba could be next to suffer similar impacts, depending on how strong the system becomes and how sharp the turnaround is.

This scenario is also the most worrying for the USA. A stronger system in the Gulf of Mexico could reach Florida next week.

Five hurricanes have hit the US Gulf Coast this year.

If this system makes landfall in the United States, it could surpass the youngest hurricane on record. The current record is Hurricane Kate, which made landfall in Florida on November 21, 1985 as a Category 2 storm.

Hurricane season officially ends on November 30th, but named storms have already formed in December.

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