“Bama Basketball Breakdown: Arkansas State brings a familiar face – and style of play – to Tuscaloosa

Alabama, fresh off a 110-54 defenestration of UNC Asheville, doesn’t exactly return to Coleman for a breezy show. In the second game of the season, a team will be led by a man who knows Alabama and Nate Oats better than most: Nate’s longtime assistant Bryan Hodgson and his Arkansas State Red Wolves.

Tale of the Tape: Arkansas State (1-0) at No. 2 Alabama (1-0)

Spread (Total): Alabama -23.5 (167.5)

ASU KenPom: 120 (101 Attack, 157 Defense, 102 Speed)
ASU Evan Miya: 115 (101 Attack, 148 Defense, 142 Speed)
ASU Bart Torvik: 142 (118 Attack, 170 Defense, 152 Speed)
Opponent NET: Q3

Alabama KenPom: 5 (2 Attacks, 23 Defenses, 8 Speed)
Alabama Evan Miya: 2 (2 Attacks, 11 Defenses, 5 Speed)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 5 (3 offensive, 17 defensive, 12 tempo)
NET ranking: N/A

At ASU, Hodgson was a revelation. In one season he defeated a team that was eight games under .500 the year before, led them to a 4th place finish in the Sun Belt, an unlikely SBC tournament title, and was one point away from the postseason CBI Championship to play.

ASU’s 20-17 record last year may seem deceptively mediocre, but considering where ASU was, that’s a lot more impressive than it looks – it was their first winning season in nearly a decade. With the Red Wolves aiming to be a tempo-rim-and-perimeter Alabama clone led by guards, this will be a very good mirror for the Tide to look into early in the season. And while ASU wants to play tempo, they didn’t excel at tempo against Akron. Small data set and all, but ASU is clearly in the middle of the pack.

The defense is also average, having given up 40% from the floor, 10 three-pointers and 85 points against Akron. The Zips are defending MAC champions, so they are solid. But the Akron guards’ deep bench enjoyed the Red Wolves, scoring 62 of those points. Perimeter defense was also a particular concern against movement: Akron had 19 assists on its 28 total buckets.

Offensively, the Red Wolves are led by Taryn Todd. The very active wing defender was ASU’s leading scorer last season, can get the ball to the floor off the dribble and is a solid FT shooter at a respectable 42% from the floor. PG Derrian Ford is the best perimeter shooter for the Wolves (38% career shooter from the arc) and also one of ASU’s most solid FT shooters. However, he is a pretty lazy defender and almost never goes for rebounds.

But the core of this team will likely consist of three transfers, including some SEC talent that paid immediate dividends. PF Joseph Pinion looks set for a big season. He was SG at Arkansas, but the move to the Sun Belt has allowed the 6’8″ Pinion to move to F/PF. He is also careful with the ball. Aside from leading the Wolves in scoring against Akron, he had no turnovers in his 48 total touches and was absolutely lethal when he went outside (4 of 5 from three). This will be a good match for Grant and Jarin. He is a typical player of this type who strives to move forward.

At the post is Rashaud Marshall, a transfer from Ole Miss and already the team’s most effective rebounder and rim defender. Finally, it’s worth mentioning that there’s the player who, in my opinion (along with Pinion), may be the Red Wolves’ best at the end of the season: ULL transfer wing Kobe Julien. Kobe was a star for the Ragin’ Cajuns last season, averaging nearly 18/5 per game, and he’s also an excellent FT shooter. Against Akron, he scored 14 goals, six ORBs, two assists and blocked four shots.

This will probably be a slightly more difficult game than the jerseys suggest. This will initially appear to be a NET Tier 3 competition, but will likely prove to be a T2 win at the end of the year.

Last season, ASU ranked 3rd in 3P shooting defense and 46th nationally in 3P rate, and they’ve only gotten more talented in the offseason by adding some former SEC talent above the portal. From the outside, they’re not that good this year (at least after one game). But they will start them anyway. The Red Wolves scored 34 points (only 9, or 29%) on Monday night.

So it will be a game like that. And when you have a team that throws as many balls in the air as the Red Wolves, with four scorers who can also put the ball on the floor and attack the goal, it’s always a bit dangerous – the three-point shot is the big one Balance. And a hot night can give even an outsider a chance.

Still, ASU’s bench is thin and it’s a relatively small team that doesn’t defend very well. As with Asheville, Bama’s size will likely cause problems for the Red Wolves. The same goes for Bama’s ball movement and three-point shooting. Given ASU’s defensive weaknesses at the guard positions, I expect a much bigger night for the Tide from beyond the arc.

ASU is still a quality opponent. And if anyone knows Nate Oats, it’s Coach Hodgson. But the Tide’s length and ball movement is overwhelming here, as is the bench. ASU will struggle to keep its top five on the field.

You can’t ask the Tide’s talented bench to weaken itself by running the clock, or expect Alabama to give more than 100% on both ends of the floor for 40 minutes. With that in mind, I think “Bama gets a pretty clear triple-digit win and covers it easily.”

This is your game thread for the evening. Tip-offs take place at 7:00 a.m. and can be seen on ESPN (or streamed on ESPN+).

Roll Tide and tune in below.