Bitcoin would reach $1.8 million per coin if it reached the 2017 bull market

While the title of this finding may seem overly optimistic, the data makes it just a fact. However, the historical patterns do not really agree with such a bullish scenario. In each Bitcoin cycle, the price increase has been about 27% compared to the last period. If Bitcoin continues this trend, we may still have reason to be optimistic, although not yet at satoshi/dollar parity.

The price increase for each halving cycle appears to decrease significantly over time.

• First halving (to second halving): 10,300% increase
• Second halving (until third halving): Increase by 2,800%
• Third halving (until fourth halving): 738% increase

Each cycle shows a significant reduction in the percentage increase. To predict a trend, we analyze the approximate rate of decline:

• From Halving 1 to Halving 2: (2800 / 10300) ≈ 27.18% the previous increase.
• From Halving 2 to Halving 3: (738 / 2800) ≈ 26.36% the previous increase.

If we continue this decreasing rate, Halving 4 could see an increase of around 26-27% of the previous halving’s percentage increase:

738 * 0.265 ≈ 195.57%

Halving 4 estimate: We could estimate an increase of approx 195% above the halving price. This follows the trend of diminishing returns per cycle.

Such a price increase would take Bitcoin to a high of around $180,000 this cycle.

For fun, if Bitcoin were to break the pattern of diminishing returns and rise by 50% or 100% of the last cycle’s increase, we would see prices of $304,000 and $520,000, respectively.

If Bitcoin somehow regains the strength of the 2017 bull market, it would rise to as much as $1.8 million per coin.

Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Bitcoin is still in its infancy as an asset and anything could happen next.

Except, in my opinion, going to zero.