Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox are interested in Max Fried

Left-handed Max Fried is one of the best pitchers available in free agency this offseason. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest. In addition to the Orioles and Red Sox, Fried is also being linked to the Jays by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman also mentions that the Yankees have reached out to Fried, as well as people like him Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander And Pete Alonsobut all of this is presented as secondary to the goal one wants to achieve Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another starting left tackle, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting that they are involved Garrett Crochet the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X-Link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as prime candidates for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has thrown 884 1/3 innings in his career for Atlanta. During that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His career strikeout rate of 23.9% and walk rate of 6.8% are both slightly better than average, while his ground ball rate of 54.4% is quite high. Only among pitchers with at least 850 innings pitched from 2017 to 2024 Framber Valdez, Logan Webb And Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch, while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The left-hander was also quite durable during this time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 season and threw at least 165 innings in every full season during that period, except 2023. Fried also added an additional 67 postseason innings as Atlanta was a playoff fixture during his career. A forearm strain limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which may be a concern. An inflamed nerve in the same forearm caused him to miss some starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to field the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta made Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to decline as he looks for a significant long-term contract. The recent MLBTR Top 50 Free Agents post projected Fried to receive a six-year, $156 million deal, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record, he is sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays plan to start pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman And Chris Bassitt Everyone has a contract for next year. Bowden Francis also appears to have earned a gig after posting a 1.80 ERA in his final 11 appearances in 2024.

You have Yariel Rodriguez And Jake Bloss as 5th place options, but it makes sense to add depth. Rodríguez also threw a pitch out of the bullpen at one point in 2024 and could be pushed there to start next year. Bloss has only made three big league starts and hasn’t played much in the minor leagues either, so having him as an option would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back, but probably not until the end of the year as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays will make about $20 million less than last year, although they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more cap space. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to differ significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26 million a year or something similar would seemingly use up a significant portion of her purchasing power. They also have needs in the infield, outfield and bullpen. The trade market could help in some of these areas, but they will need to evaluate how to focus their resources on multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit when Burnes became a free agent, leaving them behind Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodríguez And Dean Kremer as their top three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and won’t be counted for a while. Boys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suarez might fill the back, but it makes sense to strive for upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins, while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Interested parties like Chayce McDermott And Cade Povich are not yet established in the major leagues.

The most important question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It’s been over six years since they gave a free agent a multi-year contract. Your four-year contract for Alex Cobb March 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year deal on the open market, as shown in MLBTR’s contract tracker.

With the rebuild long complete and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club made official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year contract for someone like him Nathan Eovaldi or a three or four year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s hard to say right now if they plan on being aggressive enough to sign someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow He recently said that the club planned to “raise the rotation cap.” They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello And Cutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in mid-March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently considering whether or not to accept the Sox’ qualifying offer. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix, but he could also end up in the bullpen. Quinn Priest, Cooper Criswell And Richard Fitts are possibilities, but could also end up in the minor subjects or in the “pen”.

It appears the Sox are making a big push to upgrade this group, with both Fried and Crochet being top-notch pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately pitched 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, a 35.1% strikeout rate, a 5.5% walk rate and a Ground ball rate of 45.1% thrown.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold on to him with Crochet just two years away from free agency. With the White Sox coming off the worst season of the modern baseball era, they are unlikely to return to contention during this time. There is little evidence that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is considered one of the top trade candidates this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicts he will make a salary of just $2.9 million next year, meaning he could fit into any club’s budget.

General manager of the White Sox Chris Getz says the club is targeting position players in its Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to negotiate a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the Big Four. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer And Kyle Teel are close to making their major league debut, which means Boston will either have to find a spot for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available via trade. McAdam suspects Anthony is untouchable, but is less sure about the others in this group.

The White Sox obviously have to evaluate what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as do the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, although it probably isn’t as strong as it once was. Many of the top names are now on major league rosters or have been used in trades as the club has moved into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical because they seem interested in everyone and because they also have financial concerns. The Soto transfer last winter was primarily about reducing the wage bill and bringing the club under the competitive equalization tax after the collapse of its TV contract. According to RosterResource, their projected spending for 2025 will already exceed last year’s levels and they are already close to the CBT limit before the offseason has even properly begun. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove He required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone like Crochet, who is so cheap, is obviously tempting.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago, but no deal materialized. They eventually won the World Series despite having their rotation essentially reduced to a trio Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto And Walker Buhler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will bring other guys back into the game as they recover from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow And Tony Gonsolinbut they could definitely find room for crochet.

They have also been repeat payers of CBT and therefore face heavy penalties. According to RosterResource, they’re already expected to have a CBT figure of $272 million next year, not far from the third penalty level with plenty of offseason still ahead of them.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows their top priority is bringing Soto back, which will likely cost around $50 million per year for over a decade. If they ultimately fail to bring Soto back, they have plenty of options to redirect the money to other parts of the roster. The first base is open with Anthony Rizzo become a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it possible to sign another outfielder. The club apparently considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then selling him Nestor Cortesso some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

In theory, this makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it looks like they won’t really be considered until there is more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, the possibilities are endless and any development will have ripple effects. If a club wins Crochet, the clubs that miss out on the offer will have to resort to other options. The clubs that don’t sign Fried will also have to adjust, as the different parts of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.