Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty eyes historic Heisman run at historic pace

The numbers Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty put up over the first two-thirds of the regular season already make him one of the most productive running backs of the last class.

The numbers he must achieve to become the first player since 1991 to win the Heisman Trophy from a non-power conference program are astronomical.

Jeanty’s performance in the first half of the season drew comparisons to Barry Sanders’ mythical performance at Oklahoma State in 1988 – and the parallels were not unfounded. However, it is essential to Jeanty’s Heisman candidacy to eliminate comparisons of his performance to Sanders’.

Jeanty is on pace for one of the best seasons by a running back in college football history; Sanders’ 1988 campaign is the best ever. Setting the best season ever as the benchmark sets Jeanty up for failure in the eyes of the public.

And it is ultimately public perception that determines the Heisman. For college football’s highest individual honor, there are no specific criteria, spoken or unspoken, that guarantee a path to victory.

There are some numbers that, if Jeanty can achieve by the time the Heisman is presented in December, may not win him the award, but should give him the best possible chance – even if his pursuit of Sanders’ record fails.

2,500 yards

Jeanty has rushed for 1,525 yards in just eight games, about 250 more than the country’s second-most productive ball carrier – Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson – gained in nine games. The Boise State defensive back is just 208 yards away from surpassing Ollie Gordon II’s national-leading total, which he posted in 14 games a season ago.

Topping Gordon’s 2023 point total in Boise State’s game against Nevada on Nov. 9 would be a great start to sending Jeanty to a significant milestone: 2,500 yards.

With the Broncos scheduled for four more regular-season contests and a possible appearance in the Mountain West Championship Game, Jeanty could have five opportunities to gain just under 1,000 yards.

Only three rushers in college football history have reached 2,500 yards. Two of them — UCF’s Kevin Smith in 2007 and Melvin Gordon in 2014 — didn’t do so until their bowl games.

If Jeanty can reach 2,500 yards in conference championship week, he will join Sanders as the only players to ever reach that milestone in the regular season.

32 touchdowns

With his two touchdowns scored against San Diego State in Week 11, Jeanty enters the season with 20 rushing touchdowns. That’s an average of 2.5 end zone trips per game, a pace that brings him to 32 this season if he maintains that pace for five more games.

Only five players have ever scored 30 or more touchdowns in a season; only Sanders and Wisconsin’s Montee Ball in 2011 scored 32 or more points before their bowl game. Ball was a Heisman finalist in 2011 after reaching that mark, and he did it without reaching the important milestone of 2,000 yards.

If Jeanty can reach 32 touchdowns and run well over 2,000, he’ll be back on a team alone with Sanders in the best year ever for a running back.

> 1, 21 and 25

As important as statistical achievements are for any Heisman case, it is equally important to prevail against quality competition. Jeanty has maximized his chances against big opponents this season, most notably his 192 yards on 25 carries and three touchdowns against the current top-ranked team in the country, Oregon.

To add: That’s 70 more yards than the Ducks’ defense allows per game.

For Jeanty, it’s good that Oregon maintains its top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. Washington state is also rising in the committee’s weekly survey.

Jeanty decimated the currently ranked 21st-ranked Cougars on September 28th, rushing for 259 yards and four touchdowns on just 26 carries. If we end up with two of Jeanty’s best games at the end of the season against teams ranked high in the playoff poll, it will address some of the criticisms that come with playing in a conference without autonomy.

But both games fell in September. The Heisman is primarily a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately award, and a marquee performance in November or December is absolutely necessary.

To that end, Boise State supporters should become vocal UNLV supporters the rest of the way.

The Rebels briefly cracked the top 25 this season and would likely do so again if they go 10-2. That would also lead to a rematch in the Mountain West Championship, with Jeanty facing a third-ranked potential opponent – and with the rare opportunity to get a mulligan, which was his worst statistical game of the season.