Bowl Predictions: Alabama advances to No. 3 seed in College Football Playoff, Ohio State replaces Georgia

There is never a dull moment in the SEC.

Let’s start at the top, where Ole Miss knocked Georgia out of the top of the conference standings by one convincing 28:10 victory. It’s a win that puts the Rebels in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but I haven’t predicted them there…yet. The home loss to Kentucky, which may not end with more than four wins, stands out compared to other potential two-loss teams.

The loss for Georgia, combined with the wins by Alabama and Tennessee, leaves Texas in first place in the SEC regular season, trailing them by six teams with two conference losses. I had to dig deep into the tiebreaker to find an opponent for the Longhorns, and that team is the Crimson Tide, who would clinch a spot in the conference championship based on the record of their conference opponents. I also predict that Alabama will win the SEC title game against Texas and secure the third seed in the playoff field.

Ohio State moves to the top spot after Georgia’s loss. BYU is expected to remain undefeated and secure second place. I believe the two-loss difference between BYU and Alabama should be enough for the Cougars to finish ahead of Alabama, which is how the committee ranked them this week.

I previously expected Iowa State to be the Big 12 champion, but the Cyclones lost their second straight game on Saturday and will now need help getting to the title game. Colorado is in the driver’s seat after a win at Texas Tech on Saturday and will join BYU.

The fourth No. 1 seed is still Miami, despite its loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday. Miami may have to go into the ACC title game as the bottom seed against SMU, but I still like the Hurricanes to come out of this matchup victorious.

This prediction also requires Miami to win a tiebreaker to advance to the ACC title game. The Canes are preferred over Clemson because they have a better record against common opponents.

Quarterfinals

First round

The home teams in the first round games are familiar names. Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State are projected to be 5-8 seeds. The Ducks are expected to suffer their first loss of the season against Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and fifth automatic qualifier Boise State round out the 12-team field. This is the first time the Hoosiers have been included in this prediction, although they came close for the first time this season with a win over Michigan on Saturday. Well, that and the possibility of not having beaten a team with more than six wins at the end of the season. The committee seemed impressed with them when they released the first rankings on Tuesday, so I expect the same will be the case this week.

One thing that’s different this week is that BYU is in the Sugar Bowl as the Big 12 champion. This bowl is home to both the SEC and the Big 12, and the higher-ranked champion of those two leagues receives this as their preferred berth. That means Alabama is in the Peach Bowl and Miami is headed to the Fiesta.

Be sure to check them out CBS Sports Bowl Eligibility Tracker. Here’s a look at which teams have already qualified for the postseason, which have a win to play, and which can try again next season.

There are three teams in this bracket projection that are projected to only have five wins. We’ll see if that holds up. There were also three teams in the bowls last season that normally would not have been eligible.

Don’t see your team? Checkout Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.