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Can Democrats flip the House of Representatives? What it would mean for Trump, GOP

by November 10, 2024

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WASHINGTON – Republicans appear poised to retain the House of Representatives and solidify full GOP control of Capitol Hill for the next two years as President-elect Donald Trump returns to Washington.

It is still possible for Democrats to flip the 435-seat chamber if they win outstanding elections in districts in California, Arizona and Oregon. But the GOP is ahead.

The Democrats initially managed to catapult a handful of suburban New York Republicans out of office. However, those gains were offset by the GOP flipping Democratic seats in Michigan and Pennsylvania as Vice President Kamala Harris suffered crucial losses in swing states.

As of Sunday morning, an Associated Press count showed Democrats had 202 seats while Republicans claimed 212 seats, meaning the GOP only needs to gain six more seats to maintain the narrowest majority in the House, while Democrats have 16 need.

House Democrats have urged patience as results in those states trickle down, while House Republicans have expressed optimism that the final voting districts will prevail.

“We must count every vote and wait until the results are clear in Oregon, Arizona and California,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the expected next speaker if Democrats prevail, said in a Nov. 7 statement.

The lack of a result nearly a week after Election Day is frustrating some Republican lawmakers. They have claimed, without evidence, that states are “slow” results.

“Every congressional district has roughly the same number of voters,” said Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., on X, formerly Twitter.

“So there is absolutely no excuse for the slow pace of counting ballots in Arizona and California over the weeks following the end of the election. I knew the results of my election several hours – not weeks – after the polls closed.”

States use different procedures for counting ballots after Election Day, and some states rely more on mail-in ballots and other voting options. It is not proof that anything went wrong in racing.

But what would happen if the Democrats narrowly took the House of Representatives instead of the Republicans? What would it potentially mean for Trump’s second term? Here’s what you need to know:

From mass deportations to corporate tax cuts, Trump’s agenda is at stake

Which side prevails will be the difference between a House that advances Trump’s agenda and a House that obstructs him at every turn.

With a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, Trump, his agenda and the priorities of his conservative allies in Washington would have a much easier time. But if Democrats take back the chamber, they will likely argue that voters want Republican control.

The president-elect’s biggest stated goal is immigration and border security. These include hardline initiatives such as the 2024 campaign promise to launch the “largest deportation effort in American history” of undocumented immigrants.

Paying for such a use of federal funds – Trump has said the price is “no question” – would have to go through the House of Representatives, for example. While Democrats have expressed interest in immigration reform, Trump’s campaign promise would not pass the House if the left were in control.

But Democrats in the House of Representatives wouldn’t just fight Trump because of his immigration policies. Without a majority in the House, Trump would be forced to negotiate with Jeffries and Democrats on must-pass legislation, such as spending bills that keep government doors open and prevent catastrophic shutdowns.

These are moments that are already leading to dramatic showdowns, even when Republicans have a majority in the House. Finally, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted by some of his fellow Republicans for his willingness to work with Democrats to avoid a shutdown.

But the temperature would rise even higher if Democrats controlled a chamber against a Republican White House and Senate.

For example, Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cuts passed in 2017 expire next year. Whether they continue or not and what national tax policy looks like will largely depend on who gets the majority in the House of Representatives. While there was bipartisan consensus on initiatives like cutting federal taxes on tips (Trump and Harris both supported the move), the president-elect’s proposal to cut the corporate tax rate would depend on the balance of power in the House.

All hardline conservative domestic policy ideas, such as repealing the Affordable Care Act, codifying further restrictions on abortion access, eliminating climate change regulations, or cutting federal funding for schools that use curricula that conservative activists consider race, gender identity, and However, US history would have rejected it. It will be impossible to pass Congress if Republicans do not maintain their lead in the race for control of the House of Representatives.

After a bitter defeat at the presidential level, Democrats may represent Trump’s only hurdle, and they would have little reason, as far as their progressive base is concerned, to work with him on substantive legislation.

Investigations and impeachment proceedings

Another area where Trump, who has already been impeached twice, would prefer to avoid a Democratic House of Representatives is the various investigative powers it has.

The majority party in Congress not only decides which bills actually get a vote, but also controls the committees that can investigate presidents of the opposing party and their allies. In the House of Representatives, these often include requests that cause headaches for the incumbent administration, even if they do not lead to significant changes.

For example, the House Oversight Committee and the House Judiciary Committee, led by Reps. James Comer, R-Ky., and Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, spent months investigating President Joe Biden for evidence of corruption or abuse of power they finally found found no evidence of wrongdoing and did not recommend impeachment proceedings against the president.

But would Democrats quickly launch their own investigations after the new Congress takes office in January? Jeffries, for his part, told NY1 on Thursday that his party will work to “find bipartisan common ground with the new administration whenever and wherever possible, but also to make it very clear that we will stand up to MAGA extremism when necessary.” “

Trump is already the only president in US history to be impeached twice. A phone call between Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in 2019 – in which Trump threatened to withhold US aid to Ukraine if he did not investigate Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden – led to Trump’s first impeachment.

The House also ultimately approved articles of impeachment against Trump shortly before his term ended following the Capitol riots, although the Senate acquitted him on both counts.

If Republicans retain the House, you could envision a continuation of investigations into the origins of COVID-19, but also other investigations into previous actions by the outgoing Biden administration, such as the prosecution of rioters who took part in the attack on the House of Representatives on January 6, 2021 Capitol.

During the campaign, Trump was outspoken about targeting political opponents and calling for their prosecution, which would be much easier if the House of Representatives were in his party’s hands. While Trump and his supporters have also said that any success in office is ultimately his revenge, other allies have left the door open to legal consequences.

“President Trump will not use the Justice Department for political purposes, that is, to target individuals simply because they are political opponents,” Mark Paoletta, who served as a lawyer in the first Trump administration, said in a March 7 post. November on X

“But just because you’re a political opponent,” he added, “doesn’t give you a free pass if you’ve broken the law.”

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