College basketball picks, best bets

After a surprising win over the UAB Blazers on Monday, the Vermont Catamounts travel to Auburn, Alabama to visit Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers on Wednesday.

The Tigers are considered one of the best college basketball teams in the league.

The surprise return of fifth-year center Johni Broome has changed the team’s outlook.

However, the catamounts are no joke.

John Becker is an outstanding head coach who has led Vermont to eight straight America East regular season titles.

Read on for my Vermont vs. Auburn predictions and my college basketball picks for the Nov. 6 matchup.

Vermont vs Auburn odds

Vermont vs Auburn Prediction

(8:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network+)

Broome is one of the best interior defenders in the country, blocking 2.2 shots per game last year while blocking every shot near the stroked area.

He is the main reason Auburn led all DI college hoops teams in 2-point shooting allowed (43%) in 2023-24.

Broome’s monstrous inside presence allows for more aggressive outside defense.

The Tiger guards know Broome will clean up their mistakes, so they pressure opposing ball handlers and, most importantly for this match, drive opposing shooters away from the 3-point line.

Auburn ranked in the top 50 nationally in 3-pointers allowed and low-quality 3-pointers forced last season.

That bodes well for this matchup with Vermont’s perimeter-oriented, five-out spread offense, which consistently leads the country in 3-point attempts per game.

Suffice it to say, I don’t expect the Catamounts to generate many open looks from deep.

Last season, Vermont’s offense was a little too one-dimensional and too reliant on point shooting, which led to many drawn-out drafts with stale offenses.

While the Catamounts moved Howard to transfer Shy Odom from the portal to create a more consistent interior offense and solve the one-dimensional problem, he is currently sidelined with an ankle injury.

So I don’t expect the Catamounts to score much.

The most effective way to beat Auburn’s defense is to draw fouls and score second-chance points on offensive rebounds – Broome and Co. often sell out on blocks and leave the weak-side boards open.

Still, Vermont’s conservative five-out attack won’t exploit either weakness – the Catamounts will try to beat Auburn with shots, but it won’t work.

However, Vermont has an elite defense led by Shamir Bogues at point guard and Ileri Ayo-Faleye at center.

Bogues is a swarming point-of-attack defender who should limit Auburn point guard JP Pegues on ball defense.

Ayo-Faleye is a mobile, versatile and springy centre-back who can limit Broome in the post.

More importantly, Vermont has a dominant defense that denies transition.

The Catamounts’ spread offense makes it easy for guys to get back on defense before opponents start running across the open field, and their consistently solid ballhandling limits opportunities for fast breaks – they ranked last nationally Ranked fourth in fast break points allowed per game this season (six).

Betting on college basketball?

Auburn loves to turn defense into offense by creating transition opportunities out of turnovers.

While Auburn’s aggressive perimeter defense should combat any of Vermont’s 3-point shots, the Tigers likely won’t force many turnovers or generate many transition opportunities against the Catamounts’ steady ball-handlers and transition-denying defenders.

Choice between Vermont and Auburn

While I don’t expect Vermont to score much in a poor offensive matchup on Wednesday, I think the Catamounts can keep Auburn from running away in a solid defensive matchup.

It’s also worth wondering if the Tigers are hoping for a huge non-conference opportunity against Houston on Saturday.

You could sleepwalk through half of this game.

Ultimately, I’m expecting an ugly 40 minutes of low scoring.

Best bet: Under 143 (-108, DraftKings)

Why you should trust New York Post Betting

Tanner McGrath has been a professional sports handicapper since 2018. He specializes in college sports and baseball and is a die-hard fan of the Vermont Catamounts, the Miami Marlins and all the underdogs in his homeland. He found himself on the wrong side of the Miami Miracle in 2018, but made up for it four years later by beating Sandy Alcantara at 40/1 to win the NL Cy Young.