College Football Playoff Rankings Prediction, Week 12 Bracket

by Junna Base November 13, 2024

The second 2024 College Football Playoff rankings are almost here, and we enter these rankings with an already established idea of how the CFP committee views each team. Before the CFP committee announces the next rankings, I’m predicting where the top 25 teams will finish.

The second of six CFP Top 25 reveals will take place on Tuesday, November 12 (here’s the full schedule). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee might rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams the way I think the CFP committee will. You can read the official minutes of the GFP Committee here.

2024 College Football Playoff Ranking Predictions: Week 12 Top 25 Predictions

These predictions are for Sunday, November 10th.

Oregon (10-0) LW: 1 – As long as Oregon keeps winning, the Ducks will stay on top.
Ohio State (8-1) LW: 2 – A narrow win should put to rest any argument about who should be the No. 2 team in the country.
Texas (8-1) LW: 5 – Expect Texas to move into the top three after losses at Georgia and Miami.
Tennessee (8-1) LW: 7 – Tennessee’s win over Alabama took on more weight after the Tide defeated LSU. This small boost will push Tennessee into the committee’s top four.
Penn State (8-1) LW: 6 – Penn State won its whiteout game against Washington and will move into the top five.
Indiana (10-0) LW: 8 – Is a win over Michigan enough to put Indiana in the top five? I don’t think so, especially in front of a Tennessee team with a win over Alabama.
BYU (9-0) LW: 9 – BYU narrowly won against Utah in the Holy War, but I don’t think a narrow win will cause the committee to drop the Cougars to a two-loss team.
Alabama (7-2) LW: 11 – Alabama should be the No. 8 team in the country after dominating LSU in Death Valley. I don’t think the CFP committee can overlook the two losses until someone ahead of the flood loses.
Georgia (7-2) LW: 3 – Georgia was ahead of Miami last week and will remain above the Hurricanes even after losing to a ranked opponent. However, due to the head-to-head matchup, the Bulldogs will fall behind Alabama.
Miami (9-1) LW: 4 – Miami’s road loss to Georgia Tech is better than Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois. Luckily for the Hurricanes, Notre Dame is ranked lower in these rankings.
Ole Miss (7-2) LW: 16 – Ole Miss will be the last free team in the bracket this week after handily beating Georgia. South Carolina should also be ranked, giving the Rebels another ranked win.
Notre Dame (8-1) LW: 10 – Notre Dame falls out of the playoff field as Alabama and Ole Miss move ahead. With only one ranked opponent left on the schedule, the committee could send a message this week about Notre Dame’s stability in the standings.
Boise State (8-1) LW: 12 – Boise State will remain in the playoffs as the highest projected remaining conference champion, but it won’t be among the top 12 teams after a narrow win over Nevada.
SMU (8-1) LW: 13 – SMU will not move ahead of any team after a bye.
Texas A&M (7-2) LW: 14 – Texas A&M will not prevail over any team after a bye.
Kansas State (7-2) LW: 19 – Kansas State had a bye and will advance after three teams ahead of it lost.
Colorado (7-2) LW: 20 – Colorado is in control of its destiny and could reach the CFP as conference champions. However, the path to becoming a top 12 team is made more difficult by a straight loss to Kansas State.
Washington State (8-1) LW: 21 – Washington State still has a long way to go to be a top-12 team, but it should move up three spots this week.
Louisville (6-3) LW: 22 – Louisville stays above Clemson after the Cardinals had a bye.
Clemson (6-2) LW: 23 – Last week’s rankings indicated that the committee will not place Clemson above Louisville after a head-to-head loss unless the Tigers earn a ranked victory.
Missouri (6-2) LW: 24 – Missouri’s win over Oklahoma doesn’t carry as much weight as was thought in the preseason. Based on the committee’s initial rankings, the Tigers will likely need to win an SEC title to make the playoffs.
Army (9-0) LW: 25 – Army’s win over North Texas wasn’t groundbreaking, so the Black Knights won’t be ranked in the top 20 just yet.
LSU (6-3) LW: 15 – Sometimes it’s as much about how you lose as who you lose to. For LSU, both will drop the Tigers to the bottom of the top 25. A significant home defeat is never a good thing.
South Carolina (6-3) LW: NR – South Carolina defeated a good Vanderbilt team a week after defeating a ranked Texas A&M team. The Gamecocks will be evaluated by the committee this week after feeling snubbed last week.
Arizona State (7-2) LW: NR – I think the committee will give Arizona State the final spot in this week’s rankings. The Sun Devils are expected to clinch the spot ahead of fellow Big 12 side Iowa State, even though the Cyclones were ranked last week. Arizona State has won two straight, while Iowa State has lost two straight. An argument could be made for ranking Tulane, but I don’t think the committee would rank two USA teams in their second ranking.

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

What the mount might look like

First teams out: No. 12 Notre Dame, No. 14 SMU, No. 15 Texas A&M

LOOK AHEAD: Schedule, dates, TV channels, websites for the 2024-25 College Football Playoff

Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions

How far do Georgia and Miami fall?

Georgia and Miami will fall out of the top three this week. We know that. What we don’t know is where the schools will end up. Both schools should be in the top 12, but the teams the committee places ahead of the Bulldogs and Hurricanes will show how much room for error both programs have down the stretch.

LAST WEEK REVIEW: Ole Miss upsets No. 3 Georgia, Georgia Tech stuns No. 4 Miami in Week 11

How much will Alabama and Ole Miss move up?

Alabama and Ole Miss each earned clear victories over ranked teams. The Tide were already in the projected playoff round last week, but how high could they be this week? Meanwhile, Ole Miss wasn’t one of the first two teams eliminated, but I think a win over the No. 3 team in the country could push the Rebels into the bracket.

Is it an SEC title or failure for LSU?

LSU may have lost at home to Alabama for the third time, but it was only the Tigers’ second SEC conference loss. LSU can still make the playoffs by winning the SEC title game, but will they need it? It depends on how far down the Tigers are in the second CFP rankings. Anything outside the top 20 will likely lead to the SEC title game or failure.