College football Week 11 preview – Separation Saturday in the SEC

Last week, the Big Ten took college football’s center stage with an Ohio State-Penn State game that clarified its conference race considerably. Now it’s the SEC’s turn. Week 11 of the 2024 season will be primarily defined by huge games in Oxford (Georgia at Ole Miss) and Baton Rouge (Alabama at LSU). The impact these games will have on the SEC and College Football Playoff races is pretty clear. If Georgia wins in the afternoon, the odds of a Texas-Georgia SEC championship game skyrocket; meanwhile, the loser of the night session will have three losses and need loads of help to reach the CFP.

This is a big week for those reasons alone, but we’re approaching mid-November — every week is huge for countless reasons. We could see another round of twists and turns in the Big 12; an intriguing four-man Heisman race will pick up steam; and the stakes only get higher for teams with wobbly bowl hopes and/or coaches trying to avoid the hot seat.

The tension is rising everywhere. Here’s everything you need to follow in Week 11. (All times are Eastern; lines from ESPN BET.)

Jump to a section:
Alabama-LSU | More Big 12 shake-ups?
Heisman watch | Big Ten on cruise control?
Chaos superfecta | Week 11 playlist
Small-school showcase

One game as an Ole Miss referendum

No. 3 Georgia at No. 16 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

Last week’s biggest game featured one of college football’s heavyweights (Ohio State) visiting a team that has been consistently excellent of late but hasn’t been able to get over the hump against the nation’s best (Penn State). This week’s biggest game is … almost exactly the same thing.

Ole Miss is back up to fourth in SP+; Lane Kiffin’s Rebels have blown out Arkansas (a team that beat Tennessee and scared Texas A&M) and South Carolina (a team that beat A&M and scared both LSU and Alabama). Against Arkansas last week, quarterback Jaxson Dart produced one of the most perfect performances you’ll ever see, going 25-for-31 for 515 yards and six touchdowns.

In terms of points per drive, the Rebels are fifth nationally on offense and fourth on defense. Even taking into account a pair of frustrating, three-point losses dinging their record, they are undeniably awesome. But under Kiffin they are 0-5 to date against Alabama and Georgia.

Last year’s 52-17 loss to Georgia was particularly demoralizing. The Dawgs averaged 10.0 yards per play to the Rebels’ 5.1. Georgia enjoyed nearly three times as many gains of 20-plus yards and forced twice as many gains or zero or worse. It was a statement game that Kiffin (and a wealthy set of NIL contributors) spent the offseason attempting to counter.

Via the transfer portal, Kiffin attempted to make massive upgrades along the line of scrimmage and, really, everywhere else. Ole Miss’ leading rusher (Henry Parrish Jr.) and No. 3 receiver (Antwane Wells Jr.), three of its top six offensive linemen, and nine of its top 19 tacklers — including the team’s four most disruptive players: tackle Walter Nolen, edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, linebacker Chris Paul Jr. and corner Trey Amos — played elsewhere last season.

Now we get to find out whether the moves worked. The two losses have completely eliminated the Rebels’ margin for error as it pertains to reaching the CFP, but a Saturday win would vault them into a solid position. They’ve waited almost a year to find out whether they can compete with Georgia. Saturday is judgment day, though I’m guessing Kiffin would have hoped for better injury luck: Parrish is out, and both leading receiver Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins, who had an incredible 254 receiving yards and five scores last week, are listed as doubtful.

Of course, while it’s easy to make this game all about Ole Miss, Georgia could stand to tie up some loose ends as well — namely, Carson Beck’s increasing propensity for completing passes to the other team. In his past five games, he has thrown 11 interceptions; as a result, he has been one of the least effective QBs in SEC play.

Beck’s three picks against Texas made the Dawgs’ easy victory in Austin even more impressive in a roundabout way. But if you hand enough possessions to the other team, you’re eventually going to pay for it — like when Beck also threw three picks against Alabama. Ole Miss is one of the better teams in the country when it comes to forcing turnovers, and if the Rebels are indeed more effective along the lines of scrimmage, a few Beck mistakes could end up making a pretty big difference.

Current line: Dawgs -2.5 | SP+ projection: Rebels by 2.3 | FPI projection: Rebels by 1.4

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An elimination(ish) game in Baton Rouge

No. 11 Alabama at No. 15 LSU (7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)

We’re used to Alabama-LSU games having playoff stakes. The winner of this game made the CFP nine out of 10 times in the four-team playoff era, and the loser twice missed because of a loss here. So it’s almost comforting to realize that the winner of Bama-LSU will have strong odds of ending up in the playoff and the loser’s odds will fall to minuscule levels (especially if it’s LSU).

These teams have two of the best offenses in the country, but they’ve come about it in different ways. For LSU, it’s all about the pass. On standard downs (first downs, second-and-7 or less, third-and-4 or less), the Tigers throw 58% of the time, the third-highest rate in the country. There’s a pretty good reason for that: They’re ninth in passing success rate and 93rd in rushing success rate. And with left guard Garrett Dellinger out with an injury, LSU could be even more pass-happy than usual.

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier spreads the ball around to five receivers, led by Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, and delivers efficiency with reasonable explosiveness. He also delivers third-down conversions: LSU’s 39% success rate on third-and-7 or more is fourth best in the country.

Alabama … is kind of the opposite in every way. The Crimson Tide are pretty run-heavy on standard downs; they’re reasonably efficient (35th in success rate); and they create more explosive plays than just about anyone: 10.2% of their plays gain at least 20 yards, third most in FBS.

But wow, are they awful on third-and-long.

With 7 or more yards to go, Alabama’s conversion rate this year is 13.2%, 131st nationally. This is an explosive and occasionally devastating offense, but on third-and-long, Alabama turns into Akron.

Jalen Milroe has been pressured on 40.3% of dropbacks (112th out of 130 QBR-eligible QBs) and has taken sacks 7.3% of the time (94th). He’s still 12th in QBR, and Bama is 17th in points per drive despite this dreadful deficiency. But this seems like what eventually will be a fatal flaw.

Milroe does have the better defense to lean on, at least. Alabama ranks 12th in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play. The run defense is solid, and the pass defense, despite massive offseason turnover in the secondary and a passive pass rush, is sixth in passing success rate allowed.

LSU’s defense seemed as if it was improving — the Tigers overachieved against SP+ defensive projections for four straight games — before getting absolutely bullied by Texas A&M in the second half of a 38-23 defeat two weeks ago. The Tigers dominated the Aggies’ passing game, and it didn’t matter because A&M ran the ball at will late. Alabama is more than happy to do the same if LSU can’t push back, but if the Tigers can force the Tide behind the chains, the advantage flips dramatically.

Current line: Bama -3 | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.6 | FPI projection: Bama by 7.6

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Was last week a sign of things to come in the Big 12?

Despite a load of close finishes, the Big 12 race was looking downright orderly until last week, when unbeaten Iowa State fell at home to Texas Tech and one-loss Kansas State lost at Houston. Order still holds for now — BYU is unbeaten, and Iowa State is still in solid shape — but three relative toss-ups could shake up the race even further.

No. 9 BYU at Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)

On Nov. 17, 1984, unbeaten BYU visited Salt Lake City to face its Holy War rival, a .500ish Utah. Despite an early deficit and a minus-5 turnover margin, the Cougars slowly eased ahead, putting away a 24-14 win with a late Robbie Bosco-to-Kelly Smith touchdown pass.

With a brilliant defense — 11th in defensive SP+, seventh in points allowed per drive — 4-4 Utah could absolutely throw a scare into its unbeaten rival this time around too. But the offense continues to sink to new lows; the Utes allowed 30 points in their past two games and lost them both. Can they ding BYU’s own solid defense enough to make this one weird? SP+ hasn’t yet caught up to how awful Utah’s offense is and projects this one particularly close. We’ll see.

Current line: BYU -3.5 (down from -5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BYU by 1.7 | FPI projection: BYU by 3.5

No. 17 Iowa State at Kansas (3:30 p.m., FS1)

Iowa State reached November unbeaten thanks in part to a couple of clutch finishes against Iowa and UCF but faltered in the last minute against Texas Tech. Kansas, on the other hand, has been a creative disaster in close finishes. The Jayhawks have won two games by a combined 73 points and lost six by a combined 30. The KU run game is awesome, and ISU’s run defense most certainly isn’t. Trends suggest this one will almost certainly be close … and then Kansas will step aside at the end.

Current line: ISU -3 | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 1.8

No. 20 Colorado at Texas Tech (4 p.m., Fox)

Colorado has won a conference game because of a 43-yard Hail Mary and lost because of a 50-yard TD pass with two minutes left. Texas Tech has played two consecutive one-point games, losing one and winning one. The Buffs have improved dramatically over the past month, but this is another one that feels required by law to come down to the wire.

Of course, there are other stakes here too: CU’s Travis Hunter is currently the No. 2 betting favorite in the Heisman race. Can he keep making plays on both sides of the ball and separate himself from Cam Ward and others?

Current line: Buffs -3.5 | SP+ projection: Buffs by 3.2 | FPI projection: Buffs by 5.1

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Heisman watch

There might still be room for a late-season usurper in the Heisman race — if Jaxson Dart torches Georgia this Saturday, for instance, or if Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke does the same in an upset of Ohio State in a couple of weeks — but right now it seems like we’re down to four guys: Ward (+185, per ESPN BET), Hunter (+225), Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel (+275) and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty (+600). Hunter has a big game in Lubbock, but the other three are playing as comfortable favorites Saturday.

No. 4 Miami at Georgia Tech (noon, ESPN)

If Ward wins the Heisman, he better mention Xavier Restrepo in his acceptance speech. Restrepo made huge, game-saving catches in wins over Virginia Tech (after slipping to the ground) and Cal, and last Saturday he caught a deflected touchdown on what might have been Ward’s most “Heisman moment” moment yet.

CAM WARD EXTENDS THE PLAY AND XAVIER RESTREPO SAVES IT FOR THE TD pic.twitter.com/6XcKSVHdB7

— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2024

Georgia Tech defends the run pretty well but ranks 89th in passing success rate allowed and 87th in yards allowed per dropback. Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King could return from injury, which might result in Tech scoring enough on Miami’s sketchy defense that Ward and Miami have to keep their foot on the gas for a while. That could end up beneficial for Ward’s Heisman stock.

Current line: Miami -11 (down from -13) | SP+ projection: Miami by 17.4 | FPI projection: Miami by 10.8

Maryland at No. 1 Oregon (7 p.m., BTN)

Gabriel is No. 3 on the favorites list but is still well within shouting distance. And over his past four games — including wins over both Ohio State and Michigan — he has completed 71% of his passes at 14.5 yards per completion, with eight TDs to two INTs. Not bad, especially considering he was without injured star WR Tez Johnson for much of the Michigan game.

Maryland’s pass defense, meanwhile, is bad: The Terps are 116th in yards allowed per dropback. Gabriel will have another chance to post big stats for the No. 1 team in the country. That’s usually a good way to score Heisman votes.

Current line: Ducks -25 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 28.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 23.6

Nevada at No. 12 Boise State (8 p.m., Fox)

By posting merely awesome stats, Ashton Jeanty has lost ground. He has produced 319 yards from scrimmage in two weeks and has dropped from first to fourth in the betting odds. That’s a solid reminder of how hard it is to maintain Heisman momentum with a Group of 5 schedule. Regardless, he’ll have to absolutely torch Nevada and the Broncos’ next few opponents to make up ground. If you’ve got a 400-yard game in you, Ashton, now would be a good time to show it.

Current line: BSU -24 (down from -25.5) | SP+ projection: BSU by 26.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 24.9

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Business as usual in the Big Ten … right?

We’ve basically got two favorites (Oregon and Ohio State) and two dark horses (Indiana and Penn State) in the Big Ten race, and among them they’re favored by an average of more than three touchdowns in Week 11. We probably aren’t going to see much drama here, but two of the favorites do have to play the teams in last year’s CFP championship game. That’s unique if nothing else.

Washington at No. 6 Penn State (8 p.m., Peacock)

Finish drives, win games. Washington scored three touchdowns in four red zone trips against USC last week while stopping the Trojans twice at the end, taking the game 26-21 and moving back over .500. The Huskies are still just 77th in points per drive because of a dreadful No. 106 ranking in red zone TD rate, but they’re capable of good things when turning chances into points.

Penn State, meanwhile, lost to Ohio State last week in part because the Nittany Lions turned three red zone trips into just three points. They have improved nicely on offense this year, ranking fifth in success rate and 10th in yards per play, but red zone execution cost them a shot at a big win. Obviously, they’ve got more to play for on White Out night in Happy Valley — per SP+, they’ve got a 60% chance of finishing 11-1, while UW has a 67% chance of finishing 6-6 — but it wouldn’t take too many blown scoring chances to make this a game.

Current line: PSU -13.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 16.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 17.2

Michigan at No. 8 Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS)

In 2023, Michigan went 15-0 and Indiana went 3-9. In 2024, Michigan is a two-touchdown underdog against the Hoosiers. The world moves in strange directions sometimes.

This is one of the biggest games in the history of Bloomington’s Memorial Stadium. Win this one and the Hoosiers will be unbeaten and nearly in the top five for their visit to Ohio State in two weeks. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to action after injury last week against Michigan State and looked excellent; the run game didn’t look amazing against the Spartans, but you move the ball on Michigan’s banged-up defense by throwing, and Indiana can do that.

Michigan had sporadic offensive success against Oregon with solid rushing and a heavy dose of tight end Colston Loveland. The Wolverines weren’t good enough to scare the Ducks too much in the end, but Indiana will need to match their physicality. The next reason we have to doubt the Hoosiers will be the first all season, but Michigan is a unique test.

Current line: Indiana -14 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 12.5 | FPI projection: Indiana by 16.8

Purdue at No. 2 Ohio State (noon, Fox)

Yeah, this one could get ugly. Purdue has played two teams in the SP+ top 10 and lost by a combined 101-7. The sooner this season ends, the better for the Boilermakers. I just included this game because I’m a completionist. Don’t watch unless you’re a Buckeyes fan.

Current line: Buckeyes -38 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 41.6 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 41.2

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Week 11 chaos superfecta

We’re back, baby! Each week, I use SP+ win probabilities as an attempt to will chaos into existence — I look at four carefully selected games with pretty big point spreads and mash them together to create a much more upset-friendly number. And because South Carolina took down Texas A&M, we snapped a three-week losing streak and moved to 6-for-10 for the season.

I didn’t love this week’s selections — we’ve got lots of highly ranked teams with particularly high win probabilities — but SP+ still says there’s only a 55% chance that Notre Dame (96% against Florida State), Miami (86% against Georgia Tech), Penn State (85% against Washington) and Indiana (78% against Michigan) all win this week. Let’s score some upsets.

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Week 11 playlist

Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.

Friday evening

Iowa at UCLA (9, Fox). UCLA has overachieved against SP+ projections by at least 12 points in three of its past four games. Deshaun Foster’s Bruins are improving quickly, but none of their good performances have come at home. Can that change against an Iowa team that is clearly good but laid an egg (32-20 loss to Michigan State) in its last road game?

Current line: Iowa -6.5 | SP+ projection: Iowa by 15.4 | FPI projection: Iowa by 6.8

Cal at Wake Forest (8, ACCN). Justin Wilcox clearly has his best Cal team — the Golden Bears are 36th in SP+ — but four gut-wrenching losses have defined the season as much as the first Berkeley appearance by “College GameDay” did. They’ve got a chance for a happy November, but it starts with another ludicrous road trip, playing 2,800 miles away from home on a Friday evening.

Current line: Cal -7 | SP+ projection: Cal by 9.0 | FPI projection: Cal by 8.9

Early Saturday

Florida at No. 5 Texas (noon, ABC/ESPN+). Texas has underachieved against SP+ projections by at least 13 points in three of its past four games, with the offense responsible for a majority of that underachievement. Without a 100 percent healthy DJ Lagway — the freshman QB left last week’s Georgia game with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable — Florida probably doesn’t have enough to offer for an upset bid, but the Horns need to find fifth gear again pretty soon.

Current line: Texas -21.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 19.6 | FPI projection: Texas by 20.4

Syracuse at Boston College (noon, The CW). After last week’s dramatic comeback win over Virginia Tech, Syracuse is 4-1 in one-score finishes and 6-2 overall. BC just got a bye week to recover after a 4-1 September turned into an 0-3 October. But when reasonably healthy, BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos is still dangerous, and, well, Syracuse rarely wins by a large margin.

Current line: BC -2 (up from -1) | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 0.1 | FPI projection: BC by 5.0

West Virginia at Cincinnati (noon, FS1). It seems like these teams should have played more than 21 times in their respective histories. (It also seems like Cincinnati should have won more than three of those games.) Regardless, this Bob Huggins Bowl pits two teams that are 3-2 in Big 12 play and facing lots of upcoming November toss-up games. This one’s a late-season tone-setter for both teams. WVU quarterback Garrett Greene is listed as doubtful with injury.

Current line: Cincy -4.5 (up from -3.5) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 4.9 | FPI projection: Cincy by 5.0

Saturday afternoon

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SECN). South Carolina might be the hottest team in the country; Vanderbilt might be the most tested. The 6-3 Commodores are less than 20 points from being both 9-0 and 3-6, and while SP+ thinks they’ve been a little bit fortunate overall, would you bet against Diego Pavia & Co. with the game on the line?

Current line: Gamecocks -3.5 | SP+ projection: Gamecocks by 7.5 | FPI projection: Gamecocks by 3.3

No. 25 Army at North Texas (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). I frequently complain to my editors that college football coaches are becoming increasingly protective of depth charts and injury information, “like they’re guarding state secrets or something.” I guess Army quarterback Bryson Daily’s current status is technically a state secret, but it’s still frustrating having no specific idea why he missed the Air Force game or what his status might be for the Black Knights’ trip to Denton.

Army beat Air Force without Daily, but he’s one of the best QBs in the country for his team’s offensive system, and North Texas has an extremely prolific offense. Without Daily, Army might be vulnerable here.

Current line: Army -5.5 | SP+ projection: Army by 11.2 | FPI projection: Army by 4.5

No. 23 Clemson at Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN). This one lost some luster when both teams lost in Week 10, and we’ll see about the availability and effectiveness of two Tech stars, QB Kyron Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten; both were out last week and are currently listed as questionable. Still, the Hokies haven’t beaten Clemson in 17 years and have beaten only one top-20 opponent in 14 years. Lane Stadium should still be rocking, at least for a while.

Current line: Clemson -6.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 3.1 | FPI projection: Clemson by 4.6

Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech (4:30 p.m., CBSSN). If South Carolina isn’t the hottest team in the country, FBS’ other Gamecocks, Jacksonville State, might be. Rich Rodriguez’s squad has won five games in a row, and per SP+ it is now the No. 2 CUSA favorite behind Western Kentucky. The run game is as sexy as any RichRod has had for a while, but Louisiana Tech’s defense is the best that JSU has faced since Week 2.

Current line: JSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: JSU by 6.6 | FPI projection: JSU by 9.2

Arkansas State at Louisiana (5 p.m., ESPN+). Michael Desormeaux went just 12-14 to start his UL tenure, but his Ragin’ Cajuns (7-1) are the current Sun Belt favorites thanks to quarterback Ben Wooldridge and an offense that ranks ninth in points per drive. Still, the defense is just glitchy enough for opponents to keep things close — and Arkansas State is 4-0 in one-score finishes this year.

Current line: Cajuns -15 (up from -14) | SP+ projection: Cajuns by 21.8 | FPI projection: Cajuns by 12.8

Saturday evening

UCF at Arizona State (7, ESPN2). UCF is coming off of its most impressive 2024 performance, a 56-12 win over Arizona led by redshirt freshman quarterback Dylan Rizk. ASU beat Oklahoma State by three touchdowns in Stillwater, but do-everything RB Cam Skattebo is doubtful with injury. He’s averaging 175.6 yards per game from scrimmage; his absence would heap extra pressure on QB Sam Leavitt.

Current line: ASU -3 (down from -4) | SP+ projection: ASU by 2.0 | FPI projection: ASU by 3.8

Oklahoma at No. 24 Missouri (7:45, SECN). An old Big 12 rivalry resumes, albeit with lower stakes than expected. OU is 5-4 and just hoping to eke out bowl eligibility, and while Mizzou isn’t completely out of the CFP picture, quarterback Brady Cook’s multiple injuries — and his questionable status for Saturday — has put a pretty low ceiling on an already disappointing offense. The defenses certainly seem to have the edge here, and the betting line completely flipped toward the Sooners after Cook was officially listed as questionable Wednesday.

Current line: Oklahoma -3 (flipped from Mizzou -2.5) | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 6.0 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 3.4

Mississippi State at No. 7 Tennessee (7, ESPN). MSU has averaged 31.3 points in its past four games. Freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. is providing genuine reason for future optimism, but we’ll see what he can do against the best defense his team has faced: Tennessee is first in points allowed per drive. The Vols’ offense remains pretty disappointing, but that probably won’t matter against an MSU team that ranks 98th in defensive SP+.

Current line: Vols -24 (up from -23) | SP+ projection: Vols by 28.4 | FPI projection: Vols by 24.3

Florida State at No. 10 Notre Dame (7:30, NBC). That FSU has barely shown signs of life or late-season improvement, even after such a dismal start, is a spectacular indictment of head coach Mike Norvell and his staff. Last week’s 35-11 loss to North Carolina was a new low. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is a CFP shoo-in if it wins its final four games, and the Irish are projected favorites of at least 14 points in the next three. Can FSU at least get up for a Helmet Game?

Current line: Irish -26.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 27.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 29.2

Virginia at No. 18 Pitt (8, ACCN). Pitt’s dream season skewed off-course with last week’s blowout loss to SMU, though the Panthers still have plenty to play for if they rebound well. Virginia was sprightly early in the season but lost to Clemson and UNC by a combined 44 points. The Cavaliers are 4-4 but finish the year with four straight SP+ top-30 opponents; bowl eligibility still feels like a long shot.

Current line: Pitt -7.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 12.9 | FPI projection: Pitt by 10.6

Late Saturday

Utah State at No. 21 Washington State (10:30, The CW). Utah State has faced three SP+ top-30 offenses and allowed an average of 53 points per game. That doesn’t bode incredibly well for this one, but there’s extreme entertainment value in watching Wazzu quarterback John Mateer cook. SP+ now gives the Cougs a 50.1% chance of finishing 11-1; I’m curious just how far they can rise in the CFP rankings.

Current line: Wazzu -20.5 | SP+ projection: Wazzu by 24.6 | FPI projection: Wazzu by 24.3

UNLV at Hawai’i (9, CBSSN). After a disappointing loss to Boise State two weeks ago, UNLV gets back to attempting to assure its spot in the MWC championship game. Hawai’i has sprung to life in the past two weeks, though, and pulled an upset at Fresno State last week. The Rainbow Warriors come at you with an extremely aggressive defense that either totally works (13.5 PPG allowed in wins) or totally doesn’t (32.0 PPG allowed in their past four losses).

Current line: UNLV -13.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 11.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 12.8

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Smaller-school showcase

Let’s once again save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.

Division II: Virginia Union at Virginia State (1 p.m., HBCU GO.tv). Virginia Union is looking for its second straight CIAA title and third straight playoff bid, and it might have the offense to make serious playoff noise this time around. The Panthers have scored at least 35 points six times in eight D-II games, including a 91-0 win over poor Bluefield State last week. Running back Jada Byers has averaged 206 yards over the past four games, and Union currently ranks sixth in D-II SP+. Virginia State, however, is 16th, having overcome a slow start with a nice run of form. This could be a dynamite matchup.

SP+ projection: VUU by 1.9

Division III: No. 23 Marietta at No. 3 Mount Union (1:30 p.m., local streaming). There are 13 remaining unbeatens at the D-III level, and about seven of them can entertain legitimate thoughts of making a big playoff run. Two are playing each other Saturday. Mount Union suffered a cataclysmic upset in the second round of the playoffs last year, but the Purple Raiders are still annual contenders, and they’ve won their eight games by an average of 49-12. Marietta, however, is an historic also-ran, and Andy Waddle’s Pioneers are also 8-0 (average win: 47-8) and up to seventh in SP+. The last time they stayed within even 14 points of Mount Union was 2010. Can they pull off a major OAC shake-up?

SP+ projection: Mount Union by 7.6

FCS: No. 4 UC Davis at No. 7 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). The Big Sky on ESPN2! Montana has rounded into Montana form — the 7-2 Grizzlies have won three in a row since an upset loss to Weber State, and an offense featuring backs Eli Gillman and Nick Ostmo and former Fresno State quarterback Logan Fife is No. 4 in FCS, per SP+. UC Davis, meanwhile, has surged under first-year coach Tim Plough. The Aggies gave Cal problems in Week 1 and have gone unbeaten against FCS opponents. The biggest tests now arrive: After this week’s trip to Montana, they host No. 2 Montana State next week.

SP+ projection: Montana by 7.0