Early calls, a MAGA succession fight, the black male voter industrial complex and more low-stakes predictions – Reckon

You made it to Election Day.

Once upon a time, Election Day was a time when moms and dads would drop by the local voting precinct between home and work, pull a lever, and gather around the television waiting for news from Peter Jennings or Tom Brokaw about the next leader the Free Party to wait world, everything before bedtime cookies and milk.

Things have changed, to say the least. Like parents whose children have outgrown Santa’s magic, many of us like to fall asleep before ballots are even counted on the West Coast. But I’m confident there’s still some magic from Election Day.

First, let me state that anything that may be construed as an opinion in this section is my opinion and mine alone. However, I will share them on official Reckon platforms. I think we might actually get some November surprises before the clock strikes midnight tonight.

An earlier than expected call. The major media outlets are all singing the same song: It will be a historically close election, and we probably won’t know who the 47th president will be for days or weeks. I don’t know though. There are some battleground states in the first round of election closures this cycle. None of them is more important than Georgia. Since the 2020 fiasco for which Trump was impeached in Fulton County, the Peach State has passed a law requiring early votes to be counted first and within an hour of polls closing.

Recent reports show that about 75% of all ballots in Georgia were cast early, meaning we’ll know a lot pretty quickly. If Kamala Harris defeats Trump in the early voting, then logic will dictate that same-day voting in and around Atlanta will swing heavily toward voters. If the early votes are close, the state belongs to Harris.

Lodestars of the Red State. No poll I have seen says Florida is within reach for Vice President Harris. However, there have been rumors in the Harris sphere over the last week that Kamala might do much better at Florida Man than the polls suggest. Florida also allows early votes to be counted before Election Day. I’ll say this: If Kamala gets within five points of Trump within an hour or so of the polls closing in the Butterfly Ballot State, it’s going to be a tough race for the former president. The same goes for North Carolina, which hasn’t elected a Democratic president since 2008.

The overwhelming and convincing affirmation of abortion rights. In 2022, the pundits and the Grand Ol’ Party could probably be given a chance to fully appreciate the sheer magnitude of the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Roe v. Wade should be underestimated as an animator in federal and state elections. The evidence is now unshakable. Abortion rights are a top issue for men and women planning to vote Democratic this year. Watch out.

Read more about what it’s all about from my colleague Annabel Rocha Reckon’s guide to abortion choice can be found here.

Republicans will lose the popular vote (and may never win it again). 1988 was the last time a sitting vice president immediately succeeded his president in the White House (remember, Al Gore tried and failed; see also Florida). 1988 and 2004 were also the only cycles in the past 35 years in which Republicans won the popular vote. Given the demographics of the United States (and the Republican caucus), it is difficult to imagine that Republicans will win a majority of the population today or in the foreseeable future.

Inconclusive narrative about black men. Personally, it’s too soon if I never see another hair salon town hall or campaign site again. There’s been a lot of noise about black male voting trends and what to make of them: Black men are falling in love with Trump, too many are stubbornly refusing to support a female president. Make no mistake, black men will turn out in large numbers for Kamala Harris. However, if Trump does up to 1 percent better with black voters than he did in 2020 (which he could achieve), a cottage industry of courting black men in hair salons will emerge.

One of the issues Black voters have raised this year is whether candidates support reparations for slavery. Rebekah Sager wrote for Reckon and examined how some former plantations are reclaiming narratives and to move beyond crude plantation tourism as a form of reparation.

A bloody battle for the MAGA successor. Whether Donald Trump wins or loses, there will be a vacuum for his successor to lead the MAGA coalition. The odds are in favor of Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who has morphed into a MAGA and Trump acolyte in recent years, although he calls the man he wants to serve America’s Hitler. The problem is that, according to some reporters, Vance is widely unpopular among Trump supporters, even more so than Sarah Palin. MAGA flirted a little with Vivek Ramaswamy; less so with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. It’s hard to see any of them wearing the MAGA coat. Republicans have plenty of non-MAGA lawmakers on the bench who could have broader appeal, such as former Ambassador Niki Haley, or, if MAGAism prevails tonight and regular Republicans feel safe enough to return to the public eye, the old-fashioned supporters of Chris Christie (or Joe Rogan, Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson et al. Personally, I don’t think it could be anyone who doesn’t have the last name Trump. Even then, these kids would attack each other like the Dominion Defendants Process. But I trust Ivanka.

A mix of contrasting surprises. I can imagine completely crazy scenarios, like Trump winning New Hampshire but losing North Carolina. Or Harris loses Nevada but makes it in Georgia. I have long said that in a divided U.S. House of Representatives where Republicans only hold a four-seat majority, a new majority-Black congressional district in Alabama could be crucial to control of the lower chamber of Congress. In summary, I predict chaos.

Have fun voting!