Experts warn that Trump’s crackdown on immigration could boost organized crime

As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, migration experts warn that his renewed hardline stance on immigration policy could inadvertently benefit organized crime. Experts say that by further restricting already limited legal routes, Trump’s policies will push even more migrants towards human traffickers and smugglers – many of whom are linked to criminal networks.

“Organized crime is the biggest winner,” said Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador to the United States, noting that profits from human smuggling now rival those from drug trafficking. Annual revenue from the human smuggling business is estimated at $4 billion to $12 billion. Migrant smuggling, along with drugs and extortion, is now one of the main sources of income for criminal groups in Mexico, Central and South America, with about 80% of undocumented migrants relying on smugglers to take dangerous routes to the United States

Trump’s re-election has made the journey of migrants north even more urgent. Despite President Joe Biden’s efforts to streamline border processes, such as through the CBP One app, many now fear Trump’s promise to end the program will close their final legal recourse. The app allowed asylum seekers to schedule appointments online, easing pressure on crowded border shelters and allowing families to wait legally. However, some migrants are now considering alternative, riskier options.

Bárbara Rodríguez, a 33-year-old Venezuelan woman who fled after political threats, sold her home and left her children with her mother to seek safety in the United States. She was hoping to get an asylum appointment through CBP One, but now she feels the clock is ticking. “Although I have already been kidnapped on this trip, I may have to turn to a trafficker to achieve my goal,” Rodríguez told the AP.

For those stuck at the border, the lack of legal options increases their vulnerability. Human rights activists warn that tougher U.S. policies will worsen conditions in refugee camps and encourage decisions driven by desperation. In Mexico, civil society organizations and shelter managers report a lack of government support in preparing for mass deportations.

“Mexico must recognize that it is becoming a detention zone for migrants,” said Carlos Pérez Ricart, a professor of international relations at CIDE, a Mexican public research center. Rafael Velásquez García, head of the International Rescue Committee in Mexico, told AP that civil society has shouldered the bulk of the humanitarian response. “If Trump goes through with the deportations,” he said, “we are not prepared for the magnitude of the impact.”

Although Trump’s rhetoric on immigration has been harsh, many migrants, including those already on their way to the United States, are not stopping their migration plans. The United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that the number of international migrants is steadily increasing. Currently, around 281 million people, or 3.6% of the world’s population, are displaced worldwide. The IOM also warns that when regular migration routes are restricted, migrants often resort to more dangerous, irregular routes.

In Latin America, for example, although the desire to migrate has fallen slightly from the peak of 34% in 2021 and 2022, it remains high at 28% – a sharp increase from 18% in 2011. The recent decline is largely due to the fact that in the Countries with fewer people like Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela want to emigrate. However, in Ecuador, Honduras and the Dominican Republic, nearly half of adults still express a desire to migrate, according to a Gallup report based on interviews with nearly 146,000 people in 142 countries in 2023.