Gauff or Zheng? Who will come out on top in the WTA Finals Championship match?

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – After 55 Hologic WTA Tour tournaments in 25 countries – with 35 different champions – we’ve come to a single match.

20-year-old Coco Gauff will face 22-year-old Zheng Qinwen in the final of the WTA Finals in Riyadh on Saturday, presented by PIF.

WTA finals Riyadh: results | Schedule | Ranking

WTA Finals Championship, Saturday, 7 p.m. in Riyadh (11 a.m. ET)

If you expected to see No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Iga Swiatek in the final, you weren’t paying close attention in this unpredictable season. Sabalenka lost in the semifinals in straight sets to Gauff and Swiatek didn’t even make it that far.

Instead, we have No. 3 seed Gauff and No. 7 seed Zheng – a fun, heated matchup that we could see for another decade. Surely there’s a precedent here, as Gauff and Zheng are the youngest couple (42 years, 259 days) to reach the final of the year-end tournament since (wait for it)… 2004, when Serena Williams was 23 and only Maria Sharapova 17 (40 years, 251 days).

“I asked that as soon as I got the match,” Gauff said. “I asked, ‘Was that the youngest?’ ‘It must be some kind of record.’ I asked the Sky team for the answer. They didn’t have it, but that’s good to know.

“It was 2004. The year I was born was the last time, so I’ve basically never seen it in my life. That’s pretty cool. It just goes to show that age is a number in both directions, old or young.”

Friendly warning: Be prepared for a series of cheesy headlines targeting youth.

Victoria Chiesa and Greg Garber discuss the relative merits of these two precocious finalists:

Advantage, Zheng

After a strong performance against Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova 6-3, 7-5 in the semifinals on Friday, Zheng told host Andrew Krasny that she was proudest not of her nine aces or 22 wins, but of her mental strength.

And for good reason. Zheng was coasting against the Wimbledon champion 6-3, 3-0 but admitted she had “lost focus”. Krejcikova won four games in a row. It was the start of a spiral that could bring a player to a halt.

But not Zheng – not this Zheng.

“At this moment I’m not panicking,” the Olympic champion told Krasny.

When you’ve won as much as Zheng has this year, it’s easy to see why there’s little reason to worry. Aside from her historic podium performance in Paris, Zheng claimed two more titles and enters the final game of the season with 52 wins at all levels this year.

Upon arriving in Riyadh, Zheng said that this season she learned not only how to reach the top, but also what it takes to stay there.

Zheng lost her only game to date against Gauff in Rome earlier this year, losing 7-6 (4), 6-1 in the quarterfinals. But considering what she showed in the second half of the season – no one has won more matches than Zheng since Wimbledon (31) – who knows how it will turn out?

Zheng is unlikely to make the same mistake again. If she shows the composure that characterized her run in Riyadh, coupled with the same level of skill that saw her defeat two Wimbledon winners and Jasmine Paolini this week, she can emerge as a WTA Finals champion. –Victoria Chiesa

Advantage, Gauff

Gauff was not afraid of the newly crowned number 1 year-end player in the world, who is almost six years younger than her.

Both players were credited with 14 game-winning hits, but Gauff had 20 fewer than Sabalenka’s 47. That’s the kind of pressure Gauff’s defense applies – even against Sabalena’s brutal groundstrokes. When she serves well and consistently from the baseline, she is hard to beat.

And in the crucible of break points, Gauff was better, converting six of 11, compared to four of 13 for Sabalenka.

This is the Gauff that so many have been waiting for – rightly or wrongly. In some ways she is a victim of her early success; This is what happens when you reach the fourth round of Wimbledon at the age of 15. After she won her first Grand Slam singles title last year while still a teenager, some people wondered why it didn’t happen again this year.

Gauff is the youngest finalist since Caroline Wozniacki in 2010 and could become the youngest winner since Sharapova won two decades ago. There is another parallel. Gauff is the youngest player to defeat the No. 1 seed at the WTA Finals since Sharapova dispatched Lindsay Davenport.

It’s telling that after failing to defend her US Open title and losing to Emma Navarro in the round of 16, she has now won 12 of her last 14 matches. She has won 52 games this year, a career best.

In the opening round, Sabalenka defeated Zheng in straight sets. On Friday evening, Gauff did the same with Sabalenka. What’s going to happen on Saturday night, Victoria? Even I can do the math. –Greg Garber