Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, QB Matchup, Betting Trends and Stats

by Junna Base November 9, 2024

Georgia (7-1) beat Clemson 34-3 in its opener before being pushed to the brink by Kentucky and taking a 3-0 lead. However, a disastrous interception-filled first half for QB Carson Beck thwarted his attempt to defeat Alabama in Week 4. The Dawgs rebounded to beat Texas 30-15 while holding the Longhorns to just 29 rushing yards and overcoming another three interceptions from QB Carson Beck. They overcame a first-half scare from Florida last week to win 34-20. They are currently ranked 3rd nationally in the SP+ rankings. Georgia still has to face @Ole Miss and Tennessee in the next two games before their path to the CFP Playoffs is complete.

Ole Miss (7-2) had a dominant 4-0 win against a group of lower-ranked non-conference opponents before facing a Kentucky team that held the ball for 40 minutes and crushed Ole Miss by a score of 20-0 -17 loss. Does this sound familiar? Their second loss came courtesy of @LSU in a dramatic 29-26 overtime heartbreaker in which Ole Miss held a 7-point lead before Garrett Nussmeier led a 13-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game balance in regular playing time. Mississippi will likely need to win its final three games against UGA/@Florida/Miss State to advance to the CFP playoffs, with SP+ estimating its current probability at 39.8%.

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Game details and how to watch Georgia @ Ole Miss

· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
· Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
· City: Oxford, MS
· TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN+

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Georgia @ Ole Miss odds

The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:

Money line: Georgia (-140), Ole Miss (+115)
Spread: Georgia -2.5
Over/Under: 54.5 points

The Georgia line opened at Georgia -7 in the early look markets, but that has adjusted dramatically overall to the current -2.5. The best moneyline prices are -132 for UGA and +126 for the Rebels. The game total hasn’t changed much from the opening value of 54.5, although we’re seeing an increase to 55 in some places recently.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC sports betting analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) says:

“I feel like a combination of Ole Miss’ 7th ranked D on one hand and Georgia’s #7 defense on the other, along with a few key injuries to both teams’ offense, could lead to a suppressed scoring output . I’m leaning towards less than 54.5 points, but I’m not strong at it.”

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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

Line movement (last week to now)

Ohio State +450 to +350
Miami +1800 to +1100
Indiana +5000 to +3500

Largest Liabilities

Ohio State
Tennessee
Colorado

Quarterback matchup for Georgia @ Ole Miss

Georgia: Entering the season, QB Carson Beck led all returning FBS signal-callers with 3,949 passing yards and a 2nd-place PFF offensive rating of 91.5. He emerged as the Heisman front-runner, 4-1 odds on winning college football’s most coveted prize, but the quality of his play has declined, with Beck throwing at least two interceptions in four of the last five games. While his 78% PFF offensive rating and 11 interceptions are concerning, Beck has led Georgia to 30+ points in all but one game and will be relied upon heavily with RB Travis Etienne in top form.

Old lady: QB Jaxson Dart followed HC Lane Kiffin from USC to Oxford, MS, where he started 35 games and totaled 9,533 yards and 87 touchdowns. He is in the midst of another outstanding season, averaging a career-high 71.6% completion rate, 355 passing yards per game, 11.6 yards per attempt and 254 rushing yards. Ole Miss ranks 3rd in EPA/dropback and 7th in pass success rate while playing the 39th toughest schedule. His passing grade of 92.5 PFF leads the nation and makes this Saturday’s match between Beck and Dart a must-see.

Betting trends and current statistics

Carson Beck is averaging 36.2 pass attempts per game this season, second-most among qualified SEC quarterbacks. Ole Miss’ defense averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game this season, the most of any SEC defense.
Georgia’s offensive line leads the country in pressure allowed at 18.1% and ranks 17th in sack rate (3.1%). However, they also average 4.1 penalties, a game that ranks 93rd overall.
Ole Miss’ primary offensive weapon, WR Tre Harris, has not seen the field since Oct. 12 and is considered doubtful to play against UGA.
Ole Miss’ defensive line terrorizes opposing quarterbacks with an average pressure rate of 34.7% (3rd in FBS) and 11% sacks per dropback (2nd).

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