Hawkeye Football: Iowa vs. UCLA Statistical Preview

January 1, 1986, I’m 5.5 years old and Iowa is playing UCLA in the Rose Bowl. I’m not going to lie, I have no memory of this game at all. Sure, the names of the Iowa players are familiar (Chuck Long, Ronny Harmon, Quinn Early, etc.). I’ll admit that there’s only one name that stands out on the UCLA roster heading into this game (and I’m honestly surprised it hasn’t been mentioned yet) that I haven’t heard anyone know heading into this game: Flipper Anderson. It’s kind of cool and interesting that in two consecutive games (assuming they’re about 39 years apart) a father and son are on opposite sides of the ball. I think what I remember most about this game from my life is that people argued about whether Ronnie Harmon’s performance could be attributed to something more nefarious than just a kid having a bad game (even Hayden Fry had to come to his defense).

Iowa’s history in the Rose Bowl isn’t exactly encouraging (their last win in Pasadena was in 1952) and our last four trips have been, well, less than fun. However, this will be Iowa’s first regular season game in the Rose Bowl and a win would be a stadium first for Kirk Ferentz. It may not be a bowl game, but it will still be historic, and it sounds like there could be a lot of Black & Gold in the stands.

Let’s see what the numbers tell us about this match.

attack

Iowa – 356.1 ypg (133.8 passing yards, 222.3 rushing yards), 30.8 ppg
UCLA – 309.1 ypg (235.3 passing, 73.9 rushing), 18.6 ppg

Last Saturday, Iowa held a rushing drill and for the first time in the Ferentz era managed 329 yards on the ground (6.1 ypc) with 4 different players (KJ2, KM28, JP9 and QB1) rushing for 50+ yards in a game sprinted (Maybe ever, I’m not going to do that research). Brendan Sullivan did what we needed him to do: he made the necessary balls, took care of the ball and stayed out of dangerous situations. 7/10 for 93 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs isn’t going to win anyone any accolades, but if Iowa can average 6 YPC and 5 rushing TDs per game, I don’t think anyone will complain (especially when catching 1st downs). on his legs, extending plays and keeping the defense honest as a running threat. He also managed to throw the longest play from scrimmage Iowa has had this year (Zac Ortwerth’s 50+ sprinter), so, you know, not that bad. Let’s hope he can repeat that performance in LA because no one knows what QB2 looks like in a game situation.

Let’s face it, Wisconsin is a bad team right now and fortunately for Iowa, UCLA is also a pretty bad team right now. DeShaun Foster has taken over a program in disarray and is doing an admirable job of rebuilding what Chip Kelly neglected, but it’s year one and he’s pretty much starting from scratch. Last week’s victory in Lincoln over a Raiola-less Nebraska team gave him his first winning streak and the biggest road win of his young career, but neither Rutgers nor Nebraska are Iowa, at least not “November” Iowa.

Much like Breadyn Locke in Madison, UCLA’s Ethan Garbers can be a threat to both teams. He’s not a mobile QB but can make plays with his legs when needed, completing 65% of his passes for 12.1 YPC and has thrown 10 touchdowns. Unfortunately for UCLA, he also threw 9 INTs. There isn’t much to talk about in the running game, as carries are split three ways and none of UCLA’s three defenders have amassed more than 230 yards rushing in eight games. Foster is still hoping for his first win in Pasadena as HC. I’m not sure this is the week he succeeds, especially since the team just completed a brutal road trip with back-to-back road games in Piscataway and Lincoln and is now looking at a short week.

ADVANTAGE: Iowa (assuming QB1 plays the entire game)

defense

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa – 309.8 ypg (203.4 passing, 106.3 rushing, 5.0 ypp), 18 ppg
UCLA – 361.6 ypg (261.3 passing, 100.4 rushing, 5.5 ypp), 27.9 ppg

For the second week in a row, Iowa’s defense has all but shut out its opponent. The Badgers were able to move the ball on their first drive, but after taking the FG lead, it was pretty much all Iowa until garbage time (I’d say any drive that happens after scoring 25 points). has risen, it’s garbage time). . Between their first drive and their ninth drive, Iowa forced five punts and picked off Braedyn Locke twice, giving Wisconsin just 71 yards (2.36 YPP) on 30 plays. This is very, very, good. Deshaun Lee scored a PBU-saving touchdown on that first drive and an INT on the second, then blocked his side of the field most of the night. Jermari Harris was beaten for perhaps the first time all season, giving up UW’s only touchdown (to put them up 18 in the 4th), but otherwise looked untouchable, and the rest of the D looked more like they did last year than all year above . It’s a good trend and I hope it continues.

UCLA’s defense last year was incredible, in fact there were only five defenses in the country that were superior (Iowa was one of them). That defense was led by D’Anton Lynn, who is now the defensive coordinator at USC. Needless to say, UCLA’s defense has faded a bit, but it’s still strong against the run (at just 3.3 YPC), so the offensive line still has some work to do. However, their secondary is pretty bad, giving up over 260 yards per game. So maybe this is the game where we see Tim Lester rip up the playbook and emphasize the P in the RPO a little more, especially since UCLA isn’t putting up the huge sack numbers.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (but I think it’s closer than the numbers show)

Special teams

Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

Iowa – 45.4 yppr, 78.6% fgm, 25.3 ypkr, 12.9 yppr, 1 TD
UCLA – 43.1 ypp, 80% fgm, 18.7 ypkr, 14.3 yppr

Rhys Dakin was really the only S/T player who had a chance to impact the game last Saturday, and even then it wasn’t much of an impact. He averaged 53.3 YPP (with a long of 57), but as Iowa played on all four possessions in the second half, his game was over by halftime and Drew was perfect in the XP game. Drew is still second on the team in points (and there’s a lot of gap both ways), but hasn’t had many chip throws lately, and Kaden has been forced into a lot of fair catches and touchbacks since taking the returns against him NW.

Interestingly, UCLA’s QB1 (Ethan Garbers) has one punt for 41 yards this season. Their regular punter is a Scottsdale native who averages 43.4 yards per punt with a length of 61 and an IN20% of ~43%. He’s no Rhys Dakin, but he’s no slacker. You would think that UCLA would have returned a lot of kicks based on their average points allowed, but they seem to allow a lot of kicks to TBs and they have returned a total of 4 punts this season.

ADVANTAGE – Iowa (as if there was really any doubt)

DeShaun Foster was something of a surprise guest in the offseason after Chip Kelly moved to Columbus, and he has a lot of work ahead of him. He’s not there yet, but his kids are playing hard and it’s obvious he wants to get UCLA back to where they were in his first few years of college. You can never tell how things will go when you hire a former player with no experience as a head coach, but sometimes it works out…

Other than that, it’s Iowa’s game to lose (which they might as well). There’s no QB controversy this week, but if Sullivan has a poor performance, there could be one in two weeks when the Hawks come to College Park.

Numbers to watch

1 – Brendan Sullivan, QB1. We will be watching everyone very closely.

2 – KJ2 added three more TDs and another 100-yard game last week, and while he probably won’t break Shonn Greene’s yardage record, it’s almost certain that the TD record will fall this week.

4 – Ethan Garbers is the beating heart of this offense and if he can play another game like he did the last two weeks, this game could get away from the Hawks. His season stats may not be great, but the last two weeks have been pretty solid – 49/63 for 602 yards and 6 touchdowns through the air and 15 carries for 104 yards and another touchdown on the ground, all with no turnovers.

8 – DeShaun Lee appears to have secured his spot at right corner and had a crazy game against Wisconsin with three solo tackles, a pick and a PBU. He took every key snap at the RCB spot and had the highest PFF grade of any Iowa DB (77.3 overall).

17 – UCLA’s offense hasn’t had many bright spots this season, but Logan Loya is one of them. He is No. 3 on the team in catches and leads the team in TDs (with 3). Looking at UCLA’s offensive stats is a lot like looking at Iowa’s offensive stats a year ago.

As always: GO HAWKS!!!