Kari Lake, who performs as “Trump in Heels,” is still behind Ruben Gallego

by Junna Base November 10, 2024

No winner has yet emerged in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, but even if she wins, Republican Kari Lake will fall far short of President-elect Donald Trump after portraying herself as “Trump in heels.”

As of Thursday afternoon, Lake trailed Democrat Ruben Gallego by about 50,000 votes. Hundreds of thousands of ballots still need to be counted in Arizona.

At least for now, Lake is in the running for the lowest Republican support in the five swing states, which also featured a closely contested Senate contest.

The biggest question facing Republicans heading into Arizona’s Senate race against Lake still hangs over the contest as votes are counted. It is popular with Republican primary voters but has had relatively limited appeal with the broader electorate.

“The Trump brand is not automatically transferable to candidates who have claimed the MAGA mantle. We saw that in 2022 with Senate candidates who lost very winnable races,” said Jessica Taylor, Senate editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“That was the case in Arizona, and I think it was the same in Arizona. Kari Lake came into this race with very high negatives after the 2022 gubernatorial race and after refusing to concede that race,” she said.

Lake and Gallego’s campaigns had no comment Thursday.

This year there were five presidential swing states that also hosted competitive Senate contests. Of those, only Nevada Republican Sam Brown is competing with Lake because he receives a smaller share of the Trump vote, even though Nevada has a unique voting opportunity.

As of Thursday afternoon, Brown trailed Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., by about 13,000 votes, with more than 90% of ballots counted in the state.

Brown and Lake each had 91% of the votes Trump collected in their respective states, with Brown slightly lower.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republican Senate candidates commanded 96% of Trump’s total votes.

That wasn’t enough to avoid Senate losses for the GOP in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania defeated Sen. Bob Casey Jr., D-Pa.

Republican Senate candidates in non-swing states also lagged behind Trump, sometimes by significant margins. Royce White in Minnesota, for example, received only about 85% of the votes that Trump received when he lost there. Bernie Moreno won the Senate election in Ohio while receiving only 90% of Trump’s vote.

Lake’s relatively weak standing among Trump voters in a swing state is notable because her political identity largely revolves around her support for Trump. No Republican Senate challenger in swing states had a higher national profile than Lake.

Lake’s campaign bus, which crisscrossed the state, is covered in large photos showing her next to Trump. She had his support during her gubernatorial defeat in 2022 and again the day she launched her Senate campaign in October 2023.

According to Google search trends, Lake received more traffic last year than the other four Republican Senate candidates combined. Her fan base on the social media platform X is nine times larger than that of the other four candidates combined.

Lake was a prominent Trump surrogate on conservative cable news networks.

Still, Lake has not inherited Trump’s electoral popularity in Arizona, barring a sudden decline in Trump’s support while her own electoral fortunes rise.

Since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., dropped out of the race in March, she has trailed in almost every poll and has never been able to keep up with Gallego’s fundraising.

Unlike Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s allies, who poured tens of millions into the Gallego race, Lake received no support from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s allies.

Even without the help, Lake gained ground in the polls in recent weeks but rarely led, even after a strong debate performance against Gallego in early October.

It’s worth noting that Brown’s lack of support from those who voted for Trump in Nevada comes with a caveat.

Nearly 3% of Nevada voters chose third-party candidates in the Senate race, not much different than the 2% Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana received in Arizona.

But Nevada has a unique option for voters that includes “none of these candidates.”

Since almost all ballots were counted there, this election also received almost 3% of the vote in the Senate. Taylor said this option could ultimately tip the balance in the race.

Lake’s relatively weak appeal to Trump voters in Arizona stands out compared to his previous two presidential runs.

In 2016, Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, won his final term on the same night Trump won Arizona.

With their feud already evident, McCain received 9% more votes than Trump. In particular, McCain found more support than Trump in Maricopa and Pima counties, the state’s population centers.

In 2020, Sen. Martha McSally, R-Arizona, who was appointed to the seat after McCain’s death in 2018 and her Senate defeat months later, ran as a Trump supporter. She received 99% of his vote, even though Trump and McSally both lost in the state.

Lake was clearly the most Trump-supporting Senate candidate of the three and the worst at winning the votes of his supporters.

It was a scenario that some Republicans had long feared.

In March 2023, Jeff DeWit, then chairman of the Arizona Republican Party, met Lake at her home with a message.

According to a recording of their conversation released to British media 10 months later, DeWit told her that there were “very powerful people who want to keep you out of the Senate race.”

“So the question I got from the East today was, ‘Are there any companies or anything that could just put her on the payroll to keep her out?'” DeWit Lake asked.

She responded: “This is about defeating Trump, and I think that’s a very, very bad thing for our country.”

In meetings before Lake entered the Senate race, the National Republican Senatorial Committee urged Lake to drop election denial as an issue and instead turn to more politically unifying issues such as inflation and border security.

While she largely avoided the topic at campaign events, it often came up in questions from reporters who noted that Lake continued to push in court to overturn her gubernatorial election.

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