Lions-Texans betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

• RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans – over 18.5 runs: Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has generated significant volume, leading the NFL with 87 carries over the last four games. This heavy workload fueled Joe Mixon’s streak of four consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

• Unlock your benefit with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our seasonal fantasy tools including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly forecastsThe Start seat optimizer and more. Register now!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

Sunday Night Football brings a high-profile interconference showdown between the NFC favorites Detroit Lions and the AFC South’s dominant frontrunner, the Houston Texans.

Although Houston boasts a strong 6-3 record, its 3-6 record against the spread was less impressive for bettors. The Texans began the season with four straight missed covers, rebounded with three straight wins, then stumbled with two more missed covers, matching their current ATS record.

Injuries to key playmakers and issues in pass protection have limited the Texans’ passing efficiency. Since Week 7, Houston ranks last in pressure rate allowed (46.1%) and is among the last in both knockdown rate (13.9%) and pass block efficiency rating (73.9). three.

Despite defeat Aidan Hutchinson Due to injury, the Lions have managed to maintain a solid pass rush. In the three games without Hutchinson, Detroit’s defense ranked 11th in pressure percentage (35.4%). The recent edge rusher trade Za’Darius Smith could strengthen this unit, although it is uncertain whether he will play this week. If not, the pressure will depend on players like the central defender Alim McNeillwho recorded seven charges in week 9.

News late in the week revealed that the Texans held a players-only meeting to address recent issues following their second loss in three games. Improving pass protection is critical for this team, but it could also benefit from the potential return of WR Nico Collinswho is slated to return but remains questionable for the game.

Prior to his injury in Week 5, Collins was at his best, averaging 3.50 yards per route run and posting a league-best receiving grade of 92.4 PFF. Since the start of the 2023 season, his receiving grade of 92.7 is the highest among all NFL receivers, highlighting his game-changing impact.

Houston will need a player of Collins’ caliber to keep up with the Lions, who have been dominant on both sides of the ball. Detroit is the only team in the league to rank in the top eight in both offensive EPA per game and defensive EPA per plays allowed, making them one of the most balanced and impressive teams this season.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 18.5 transfers (-121)

Given the struggles with Houston’s passing game, particularly in pass protection, its presence on the ground has proven crucial in preventing defenses from holding their ears and rushing the passer.

Input Joe Mixonwho handled the workload well during his time on the field. Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has produced significant volume, leading the NFL with 87 carries over the last four games. This heavy workload has increased Joe Mixons streak of four consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

If Houston can’t establish an effective running game, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his offense risk having too many chances to build a lead. While Detroit’s defense was strong overall, it was vulnerable to the run, ranking 19th in EPA yards allowed per rush and 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.8).

Exploiting this weakness could be crucial for the Texans to keep pace and control the clock against a Lions team that thrives on both sides of the ball.