NFL Week 10 Overreactions: Chiefs not the best in the AFC? Cowboys next to fire for HC? Sam Darnold a problem for the Vikings?

Week 10 of the NFL tried to pull off some big upsets, making the start of the second half of the 2024 regular season even more crucial for the contenders. The Denver Broncos had the Kansas City Chiefs in a bind while the Jacksonville Jaguars did their best to beat the heavily favored Minnesota Vikings.

The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a showdown with the Washington Commanders and the New Orleans Saints kicked off the post-Dennis Allen era with a huge win over the division-leading Atlanta Falcons. The 1 ET slate certainly had some close calls in Week 10.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Dallas Cowboys and the Arizona Cardinals essentially finished the New York Jets’ season in the 4-ET bracket. The Los Angeles Chargers also celebrated a statement victory.

There was a lot of overreaction after the Sunday afternoon table. What are overreactions and which are reality? Let’s dive in.

The best team in the AFC is not the Chiefs

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Kansas City continues to find ways to win football games, even when the Chiefs are in danger of losing. Broncos kicker Wil Lutz had a 35-yard field goal attempt that, had it been made, would have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Instead, Leo Chenal blocked the chip shot and the Chiefs improved to 9-0, surviving an ugly performance against one of the NFL’s best defenses.

Are the Chiefs as good as their undefeated record suggests? Probably not, but Kansas City is the best team in the AFC. The Chiefs are already a second-half team, having been a staple of Andy Reid teams for over two decades. Patrick Mahomes is also slowly getting going in the passing game, as he didn’t lose a turnover on Sunday.

The Chiefs can solidify their stranglehold over the AFC in 2024 with a win over the Bills next week.

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

This is a big week for the Commanders as they face the Steelers at home, followed by the Eagles on the road – all within five days. Washington didn’t necessarily need to win the game against Pittsburgh, but the Commanders could have used that win to put pressure on the Eagles.

Instead, the Commanders lost, meaning they lost the lead in the NFC East since the Eagles’ win over the Cowboys. With a win on Thursday, the Eagles could win two games in five days against the Commanders and lead the NFC East by two games in the loss list.

Washington and Philadelphia play each other twice in the next six weeks. Thursday isn’t a necessarily winnable game for the Commanders, but if they lose to the Eagles they will be able to make up some ground. Luckily, the Commanders have a favorable schedule until Week 16 (when they host the Eagles). Sunday’s win against Pittsburgh could have worked significantly in Washington’s favor.

The Vikings also have to worry about Darnold

Overreaction or reality: reality

Sam Darnold just hasn’t been the same quarterback since the Vikings’ 5-0 start. The completion rate is still high (74.2%), but sales have increased significantly. Darnold has thrown six interceptions – with just six touchdown passes – in the four games since that 5-0 start and has a passer rating of 94.5.

The numbers aren’t bad, but the sales are reminiscent of the Darnold of old. Although the Vikings have won their last two games, Darnold has thrown five interceptions during that time against two weak teams, the Colts and Jaguars.

The Vikings are a good team and win games despite Darnold’s turnovers (he had 11 touchdowns to four interceptions in the first five games). Minnesota is a playoff team, but the Vikings are not a contender for the NFC title if Darnold continues to play like this.

The Cowboys’ McCarthy will be fired as the next head coach

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

While Jerry Jones could certainly jumpstart McCarthy’s tenure after the Cowboys’ blowout loss to the Eagles (Dallas is now 3-6), he is unlikely to be the next head coach to be fired. Matt Eberflus’ job is also on thin ice after the Chicago Bears scored just three points in an ugly loss to the New England Patriots. The Bears haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in two weeks; The last time they scored was the possession before Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary throw (and they haven’t won since).

McCarthy’s fate is likely sealed in Dallas, but that’s because of Jerry Jones, who has done next to nothing to improve the roster this offseason. Dak Prescott is expected to miss the rest of the season, and Jones never prepared to build a good roster around him for 2024. Dallas is seeing the outcome of what happens when Prescott is gone.

While it wouldn’t be shocking if the Cowboys fired McCarthy this week, Eberflus is also hanging on for life with the Bears. Both could be out of work by the end of the week. Remember, McCarthy’s team isn’t healthy, while Eberflus has so many failures with different coaches and quarterbacks that moving on from him is warranted.

Hurts deserves to be in the MVP conversation

Overreaction or reality: reality

It might be too early to include Jalen Hurts in the MVP conversation with names like Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Derrick Henry, Josh Allen and Saquon Barkley — but the Eagles quarterback makes his point clear. Hurts finished Sunday’s blowout win over the Cowboys with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns, for a passer rating of 115.0.

Since Week 6, Hurts has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Hurts has completed 71.8% of his passes for 1,046 yards with eight touchdowns and one interception, for a passer rating of 126.1 (10.2 yards per attempt). Hurts also has eight rushing touchdowns in that stretch. That’s 16 touchdowns in five games with just two giveaways.

Is Hurts the MVP favorite? Absolutely not. He advocates joining this conversation now and playing the best football of his career.

Sunday’s win over the Buccaneers saved the 49ers’ season

Overreaction or reality: reality

The 49ers are in the hunt for a playoff spot thanks to their narrow win over the Buccaneers. Could the 49ers have afforded to lose to the Buccaneers and still make the playoffs? Yes, but their goal of reaching the postseason would have been much more difficult.

Coming out of the bye and losing wouldn’t have been ideal, but no team has yet prevailed in the NFC West. The Rams enter their Monday night game at 4-4 and the Seahawks enter the bye week at 4-5. The Cardinals beat the 49ers earlier this season and have been forcing San Francisco to keep up ever since that win.

San Francisco has a tough schedule ahead with Seattle (home), Green Bay (road) and Buffalo (road). This is the game the 49ers had to win, no matter the cost. They did that and put pressure on the Cardinals in the process (and the Cardinals won on Sunday). The 49ers simply have to keep up with the Cardinals during this brutal stretch.

In short: they had to win on Sunday.

Daboll’s job isn’t as secure as Giants owner claims

Overreaction or reality: reality

Giants owner John Mara said a few weeks ago that general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll would return in 2025 — no matter how much the Giants struggled. The Giants have lost two games since the “confidence vote,” each by one point to the Commanders and Panthers.

Sunday’s loss to the Panthers was a telltale sign that things aren’t getting any better in New York. Daniel Jones is simply not a good quarterback. Daboll is 8-19 since leading the Giants to the playoffs in his first year as head coach. Jones has 10 touchdowns to 13 interceptions with a 76.6 grade in 16 starts (5.9 yards per attempt) since the start of last year.

Jones’ future in New York is essentially sealed. If the Giants can’t win games, Daboll’s time in New York may be over as well. Mara may take back what he said.

Overreaction or reality: reality

If the Colts bench Anthony Richardson for a week because he took himself out of the game, that’s one thing. Substituting him for the season in favor of Joe Flacco after only playing 10 career games was ridiculous. All for a possible playoff berth with 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who hasn’t played well in the two starts since replacing Richardson.

Flacco has thrown two touchdowns and four interceptions in his two starts (72.7 rating) and has been sacked 10 times. The Colts were unable to make any explosive plays as Flacco was unable to extend the play. The result is a 0-2 record and 16.5 points per game, turning a 4-4 start into a 4-6 mark.

The Colts were mediocre to begin with, but they could have let Richardson grow as they tried to advance to the playoffs with him. Instead, they decided to allow their franchise to ruin their 22-year-old quarterback’s confidence and essentially start over. Bad organizations continue to make bad decisions.