Playoffs and seedings loom as UI reaches the home stretch

Among the 10 teams the FCS committee ranked last week, the Vandals have the easiest remaining schedule.

At the end of the season, Idaho travels to Portland State, hosts Weber State and finally faces the away team of Idaho State – three teams with a combined record of 9-17 (.346).

Mercer, ranked eighth by the committee, also has a very easy schedule when it comes to FCS opponents. The Bears have games against VMI and Furman, who are a combined 3-14 (.176), although Mercer also travels to Alabama to face the Crimson Tide in eight days.

Big Sky opponents Montana State (No. 2), UC Davis (No. 5) and Montana (No. 10) all have games against each other still on their schedules.

South Dakota, No. 4 in the committee’s rankings, has three games remaining against teams with an overall record of 18-10 (.643). No. 3 South Dakota State has two road games left against North Dakota (5-4) and Missouri State (7-2).

Based on the strength of the schedule alone, Idaho has the easiest path to winning the remainder of the regular season compared to the other top contenders. There’s a chance that three dominant wins from the Vandals, combined with a few blips from the teams ranked ahead of them, could push Idaho to the top of the four or five seeds.

Strength of schedule concerns?

There is an argument to be made that because Idaho plays so poorly in the final stages, it could be overtaken by other teams with impressive wins. According to the numbers, the vandals have nothing to worry about in this regard.

The reason is simple: the front half of the UI schedule was so busy that a few weak games couldn’t hurt. One of the metrics the committee uses is the Massey Ratings. One of the tools used by Massey Ratings is SSF (Strength of Schedule Including Future Games).

The Vandals have a current strength rating of 40.24, are the fifth-best team in the FCS and the best of the 35 highest-rated teams in the Massey Rankings. Using SSF, Idaho’s strength of schedule is expected to drop to 38.42, which is the seventh-best mark in the FCS. Only South Dakota State, North Dakota State and North Dakota would overtake the Vandals in the standings. Idaho would overtake Northern Iowa (2-7).

According to the FCS committee’s season report, the strength of the schedule is one of the most important factors, along with a team’s win/loss record. Idaho has this under control with its non-conference schedule and prospect of atop the Big Sky early in the year.

Based on last week’s FCS committee rankings, the Vandals are expected to get a first-round bye as long as they take care of business. If Idaho is able to do what it’s supposed to do and win, it will be fun to watch the dominoes fall on the scoreboard.

Isbelle can be reached at 208-848-2268, [email protected] or on X (formerly Twitter) @RandyIsbelle.