Prediction, odds and tips for Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green

Going into the season, I had high hopes for this Bowling Green team to emerge as the best team in the MAC and take home the conference title. My optimism for the Falcons hasn’t waned one bit, especially after Bowling Green picked up a huge win over Toledo a few weeks ago. However, this will likely be one of the Falcons’ toughest tests of the season as they will host a Western Michigan team that is also fighting for the top spot in the MAC standings. While I think the Falcons are the better team overall, that limit of more than one touchdown is simply too high for a game of this magnitude. After all, Western Michigan only has one conference loss, a game against Northern Illinois last week in which the Broncos had three turnovers.

This Broncos offense is one of the better units in the conference, ranking 35th in success rate, 15th in points per quality possession and 30th in early downs EPA. As long as Western Michigan stays on schedule and doesn’t commit unnecessary penalties, the Broncos should be able to put up points in this game against a Bowling Green defense that has struggled against the run (109th in opponent EPA per rush) and fair is an average unit on early downs. On the other hand, the Falcons have a lot of trouble running the ball, which is usually the way to attack this Western Michigan defense (121st in rushing success rate allowed, 115th in early downs EPA) . And while Bowling Green should get its points in this contest, I just can’t do it with that number. Overall, it wouldn’t shock me at all if the Falcons won by a field goal, so there’s still some wiggle room with this current lineup.

Western Michigan vs. Bowling Green Prediction: Western Michigan +9.5 (-110) available at time of publication. Playable until 8

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