Projecting the College Football Playoff top 25 after Week 11

Alabama didn’t just eliminate three-loss LSU from the College Football Playoff conversation Saturday, it blew the Tigers right out of their own stadium. The Tide’s 42-13 win further cemented their spot as the selection committee’s top two-loss team, but there’s no shortage of two-loss SEC teams to choose from.

With no undefeated teams and only two one-loss teams remaining — Texas and Tennessee — the SEC is now banking on two-loss teams to represent it in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

The Big Ten is still holding strong with two undefeated teams in Oregon and Indiana, and two one-loss teams in Ohio State and Penn State, but the committee has already shown in its first ranking that not all undefeated teams are viewed equally.

So how will the committee sort through a pack that now includes two-loss Georgia and Ole Miss? How far will Miami, the ACC’s top team, fall after its embarrassing loss at Georgia Tech?

Here’s an analysis of what the top 12 might look like in the committee’s second ranking Tuesday. This week we’re also expanding to project the committee’s full top 25. Remember, this is not a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it’s a snapshot of who’s in the driver’s seat now, based on what they have done to this point and how the committee has already evaluated them.

The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from the ranking and we’ve included a bracket in the final section. Remember, the top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.

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Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: Selection committee chair Warde Manuel said Tuesday the Ducks earned the top spot in the first ranking because of their win against Ohio State and their 5-0 record against teams with winning records. Saturday’s home win against Maryland is unlikely to change that perspective. Oregon entered Week 10 with the best résumé of any undefeated team, according to ESPN’s strength of record metric.

Why they could be lower: It’s still highly unlikely the committee would put the Ducks behind any one-loss teams, and their résumé is better than the remaining undefeated contenders. The head-to-head win will also keep them above the Buckeyes.

Need to know: Oregon is favored to win each of its remaining games, and is on track to face either Ohio State or Indiana in the Big Ten title game. The Ducks will finish in the top 12 even as a one-loss conference runner-up, but it would be better for their résumé if the loss were to Ohio State because the regular-season win would give them a win against the eventual Big Ten champs. It could make a difference in which Oregon would be seeded, as teams seeded Nos. 5-8 earn a first-round home game.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 16 at Wisconsin

Why they could be here: Manuel said the Buckeyes earned the No. 2 spot last week because of their road win against Penn State, their 5-1 record against teams above .500 and the one-point loss to No. 1 Oregon. The committee also recognized Ohio State’s top-five defense. “They have had changes on the offensive line, but still performed,” Manuel said Tuesday. “And Will Howard and Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, those three have really moved the offense.”

Why they could be lower: The reality is that the lopsided 45-0 win against 1-8 Purdue didn’t do anything to really help or hurt the Buckeyes, and it would be hard for the committee to justify any team leaping them. The committee made clear in its first ranking it thought one-loss Ohio State was better than undefeated Indiana, and a five-point Hoosiers home win against Michigan probably isn’t enough to change that. Penn State beating Washington only helped Ohio State.

Need to know: The Buckeyes have a 69.6% chance to beat Indiana later this month, and the second-best chance in the league to make the Big Ten title game (62.6%) behind Oregon (95%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 vs. Indiana

Why they could be here: The committee considers common opponents, and one week after Georgia struggled to beat Florida with its third-string quarterback, the Longhorns manhandled the Gators in a 49-17 win. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers threw five touchdown passes, and the offensive line showed measurable improvement after giving up 11 sacks in the previous two games. Manuel said the committee appreciated two road wins — at Michigan and at Vanderbilt. And now that Georgia lost a second game and their records are no longer comparable, it will be easy for the committee to justify ranking Texas ahead of Georgia in spite of the head-to-head home loss to the Bulldogs.

Why they could be lower: The Longhorns’ Sept. 7 win at Michigan (5-5) continues to lose its luster each week, and it took another hit Saturday with the Wolverines’ loss at Indiana.

Need to know: With Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss, Texas should emerge as the committee’s top-ranked SEC team Tuesday. Two of the Longhorns’ final three games are on the road, though, against Arkansas and rival Texas A&M. If they stumble, the question will turn from how many SEC teams are in the playoff to how many two-loss SEC teams are in?

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Texas A&M

Why they could be here: The committee had Penn State ranked ahead of Tennessee and BYU in its first ranking because of the close loss to Ohio State — a game Manuel said “could have gone the other way.” That loss was better than the Vols’ loss to Arkansas, which Manuel said “was something that we discussed a lot.” The Nittany Lions also got credit in the room for a win at West Virginia, “which is difficult to play,” and against 6-3 Illinois, and back-to-back road wins against USC and Wisconsin. Penn State’s win against Washington on Saturday will be viewed as better than Tennessee’s win against a 2-8 Mississippi State team. Manuel cited Penn State’s whole “body of work,” and also noted tight end “Tyler Warren is a dominating force on offense.”

Why they could be lower: Penn State doesn’t have a statement win. The Nittany Lions lost their best chance to impress the committee this season when they lost to Ohio State. They haven’t beaten a ranked opponent, and don’t play Oregon, Indiana or Michigan.

Need to know: Even though PSU doesn’t have any wins against ranked opponents, the Nittany Lions entered Week 11 No. 28 in ESPN’s strength of schedule and No. 6 in strength of record. That aligns with what the committee sees when Manuel refers to whole “body of work.”

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Minnesota

Why they could be here: A win against now 2-8 Mississippi State isn’t going to impress the committee — especially considering the offense continues to show some vulnerabilities. Any movement for the Vols would be as a result of teams around them shuffling. The committee liked the Vols’ win against Alabama, which looks even better after the Tide beat LSU, but the group also struggled with Tennessee’s loss to Arkansas.

Why they could be lower: The committee could reward undefeated Indiana for its more complete performances and undefeated record following the Hoosiers’ win against Michigan.

Need to know: Tennessee’s head-to-head win against Alabama will continue to be important, especially if the Vols lose another game and both teams have two-loss records. It’s only one tiebreaker, though, along with common opponents, and Tennessee will get its shot at Georgia next. Alabama was able to beat Georgia. How Tennessee fares will be critical in separating what could possibly be three two-loss teams that all played one another.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Georgia

Why they could be here: The committee values undefeated teams, and the Hoosiers just added to their résumé with a decent win against Michigan, but was it enough to catapult IU above the committee’s top remaining one-loss teams, when everyone ranked ahead of them won again? The committee does acknowledge where it had ranked teams the previous week, even though everyone starts with a “clean slate” each week. And in their first ranking, IU was behind five one-loss teams. With Georgia losing, IU will at least bump up one spot. There is now one common opponent for the committee to consider, too. Though Texas and IU both beat Michigan, the Longhorns earned a double-digit win in Ann Arbor, and the Hoosiers held onto a precarious fourth-quarter lead to win by five points at home. It’s only one factor, but something that does help separate teams, even if marginally.

Why they could be lower: The committee was impressed with Indiana’s dominant performances, which helped it overcome the No. 103 strength of schedule heading into this week. Saturday’s win against Michigan was the first time the Hoosiers struggled, and they still don’t have a win against a ranked opponent.

Need to know: The Hoosiers have a bye week to prepare for their game at Ohio State, and how that game unfolds will affect where IU is ranked. If Indiana loses badly, the Hoosiers could fall behind some two-loss teams with better wins. Indiana’s game at Ohio State will give the committee a common opponent to compare the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions. How high Indiana is ranked Tuesday night will help indicate how much margin for error they have against the Buckeyes. It will also show how seriously the group might take them if they win.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State

Why they could be here: The committee will acknowledge Saturday’s tough road win over in-state rival Utah, even if it was against an unranked and now five-loss Utes team. Manuel already referenced the “eye test” last week when comparing Miami and BYU, and the committee was more impressed with the Canes. It’s unlikely the members saw much in the Cougars’ come-from-behind-win to catapult them any higher. The committee will still reward the Cougars for wins against SMU and Kansas State, which are both CFP top 25 teams.

Why they could be lower: Statistically, BYU has been an average contender, ranking No. 22 in offensive efficiency and No. 14 in defensive efficiency. Historically, CFP teams have ranked in the top 10 in both.

Need to know: If BYU slips up and is ranked behind Boise State — or a two-loss team wins the Big 12 — it sets up the possibility of the Big 12 champion losing the first-round bye. The Broncos could finish as the fourth-highest ranked conference champions by winning the Mountain West.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Arizona State

Why they could be here: For all of the concerns about Notre Dame’s schedule, it turns out the Irish have two wins against ranked opponents — No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 22 Louisville. The only ranking that matters is the committee’s, so how the group judges each contender’s opponents is a critical part of the process. Manuel also said the committee respected Notre Dame’s convincing win against Navy, and it helped that the Midshipmen were able to stop their slide and beat South Florida on Saturday. The combination of those wins helped the Irish overcome “what was a troubling loss to Northern Illinois,” Manuel said. Saturday’s win against Florida State won’t move the needle in the committee room one way or the other.

Why they could be lower: The committee could have one-loss Miami ahead of Notre Dame because the Canes were its No. 4 team and the group bases some of its ranking on losses. If the members are still bothered by Notre Dame’s home loss to NIU and think it’s worse than Miami’s loss to Georgia Tech, the Canes might not fall below the Irish.

Need to know: If this were the committee’s ranking, Notre Dame would still miss hosting a first-round home game, which is awarded to seeds 5-8. In this bracket, Notre Dame would earn the No. 9 seed and face No. 8 Indiana in Bloomington.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at USC

Why they could be here: The Tide’s win against LSU should bump them up, but the second loss will continue to hold them back. Alabama’s head-to-head win against Georgia should keep them ahead of the Bulldogs now that they both have identical 7-2 records. Alabama was the committee’s top two-loss team in its first ranking, and the LSU win should further cement that this week. Manuel said the committee thought Alabama’s home win against Georgia “was impressive,” along with its win against Missouri. “They’re top 20 in scoring,” Manuel said after the first ranking. “Obviously their defense is always solid, holding teams to less than 20 points per game. Those things impressed the committee.”

Why they could be lower: It depends on how far Miami tumbles. Will the Canes’ loss to Georgia Tech sink them below two-loss SEC teams?

Need to know: ESPN Analytics gives Alabama at least a 78% chance to win each of its remaining games. The Tide still probably needs the committee to rank them higher to earn a first-round home game. In this projection, Alabama would be the No. 10 seed, and first-round home games are awarded to teams seeded 5-8.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Oklahoma

Why they could be here: The Bulldogs were outplayed by Ole Miss on Saturday. Georgia’s wins against Clemson and at Texas will continue to carry weight with the committee, but now its problems outweigh its résumé. The committee considers head-to-head results as one of its tiebreakers, and the Bulldogs could be behind the Rebels and two-loss Alabama. The Ole Miss loss to Kentucky, though, probably will be a sticking point in the room. Georgia’s two losses were to Alabama and Ole Miss. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky and LSU. The Rebels’ nonconference opponents (Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest and Georgia Southern) could also help outweigh the head-to-head.

Why they could be lower: The committee could honor the Rebels’ head-to-head win because Ole Miss and Georgia both have two losses, but it would be quite the leap for Ole Miss to jump from No. 16 into the top 12. If one-loss Miami is ranked higher, it would also bump Georgia down.

Need to know: The committee had Georgia ranked ahead of Miami last week, and that was when Georgia had one loss and Miami was still undefeated. When the group drops Georgia and Miami this week, it would make sense for it to drop them together as a pair if its evaluation of them remains consistent.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Tennessee

Why they could be here: The Canes fell to a four-loss Georgia Tech team, which is a worse loss than any of the one-loss contenders listed above them. Miami had trailed by double digits three other times this season, but this was the first time the Canes weren’t able to engineer a second-half comeback, and it’s going to be costly. Miami has one win against a ranked CFP opponent — Oct. 19 at No. 22 Louisville — and five wins against teams .500 or better. Georgia Tech is still a better team than NIU, which beat Notre Dame on its own turf, and Miami lost on the road to a conference opponent. The Canes were also the committee’s No. 4 team, and dropping out of the top 12 would be a jarring about-face from their initial analysis. After the first ranking, Manuel said the committee looked at the Canes’ “offensive prowess” and road win at Louisville.

Why they could be lower: It was a bad loss, and as good as quarterback Cam Ward and the offense has been, it wasn’t enough to beat an unranked team. Miami’s defense has been a question all season, and was further exposed Saturday, giving up at least 28 points for the fifth time. Miami also allowed Georgia Tech 271 rushing yards, the most by any team against the Canes since North Carolina in 2020. The win at Louisville and against Duke might not be enough to compensate for it.

Need to know: Miami probably has to win the ACC to get into the playoff because if the Canes don’t — and finish as a two-loss team — there will be other contenders with better records, better losses, or both.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Syracuse

Why they could be here: Boise State has won seven straight since its 37-34 loss at Oregon on Sept. 7, but it lacks a win against a ranked opponent and the bend-but-don’t-break defense was on display against Nevada. Manuel said Boise State is an “impressive team,” and pointed to the Broncos’ three-point loss to No. 1 Oregon. “Ashton Jeanty, I think he’s rushed for more yards against Oregon than anybody else in the country, if I have that correct,” Manuel said. “Their quarterback has really developed and been a strength of their team. Impressive win at UNLV … and their win against No. 21 Washington State.”

Why they could be lower: Beating a 3-7 Nevada team on a day Ole Miss beat Georgia and Alabama beat LSU opened the door for the Broncos to drop behind the Rebels, too, as they don’t have a win that compares to what Ole Miss did. The committee already had Boise State behind two-loss Alabama in its first ranking.

Need to know: Boise State would be guaranteed a spot in the field as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion but would have also earned its place in the bracket by being ranked among the committee’s top 12.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 vs. Oregon State

Projecting the rest of the top 25
13. Ole Miss | 14. SMU | 15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas State | 17. Colorado | 18. Washington State
19. LSU | 20. South Carolina | 21. Louisville
22. Clemson | 23. Missouri | 24. Pitt | 25. Army

Bracket

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About the 12-team College Football Playoff

The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Oregon (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 3 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 4 Miami (ACC champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 20 and 21

No. 12 Boise State (Mountain West champ) at No. 5 Ohio State
No. 11 Georgia at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Indiana

Quarterfinal games

At the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Ohio State winner vs. No. 4 Miami
No. 11 Georgia/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 BYU
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Texas
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Indiana winner vs. No. 1 Oregon