Rafael A Gulf November Oddity

When we see a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf, the entire Gulf Coast usually holds its breath. However, there is no fear in Rafael at the moment, as all signs point to the storm continuing to drift in the Gulf next week and possibly not making landfall at all.

However, Rafael is still worth a look for several reasons:

It is probably a rare golf fizzler.

Perhaps strangest of all, Rafael entered the Gulf as a hurricane but is expected to degenerate into a remnant before ever making landfall.

Of the 284 Gulf hurricanes since 1851, we could only find eight others that entered the Gulf of Mexico but failed to reach the United States or Mexico, at least as tropical depressions.

The last person to pull off this stunt was Marco in August 2020, whose center barely stayed off the Louisiana coast before kicking the bucket.

Two other November hurricanes—the aforementioned Jeanne in 1980 and Ida in 2009—also failed to make landfall before losing their tropical characteristics.

It was an outlier for a November Category 3 hurricane.

Early Friday morning, Rafael returned to its previous Category 3 intensity over the Gulf.

According to the NOAA database, in 173 years I have done so no farther west than any previous November hurricane of Category 3 or stronger in the Atlantic basin.

This intensity only lasted 9 hours, but still stood out on a map of other cats. 3 titles.

Why Rafael’s track is so rare

Of only six other hurricanes in the Gulf region in November, five occurred in the eastern Gulf.

“Typically we don’t have storms in the western Gulf in November because the jet stream typically strengthens over the southern U.S. and most of the Gulf,” Erdman said. “This stronger jet typically either pushes November storms toward Florida, the Caribbean, or tears them apart.”

Because cold fronts and associated drier air are more common in the South in November, the drier air can quickly negate the chances of surviving a storm near the Gulf. This is because cold fronts act as a kind of wall, blocking any storms from getting through. The result: Very few November storms make landfall along the Gulf Coast.

Of the 287 hurricanes that made landfall on the U.S. mainland in the NOAA database, only four did so in November. Hurricane Nicole last hit Florida in 2022 as a late-season Category 1 hurricane.

However, cold fronts typically don’t reach all of Florida in November, which creates opportunities in the Sunshine State. That’s why Florida is the most likely landfall location if a storm forms or moves into the Gulf of Mexico in November.

What does Rafael control?

Rafael’s future path is quite bizarre. A weakening and slowing is expected. Meanwhile, another ridge of high pressure to the west or northwest should help pull it southwest into early next week as it dissipates.

Typical impact zones for November storms

In the satellite era—since 1966—November has, on average, produced a storm every 1 to 2 years and a hurricane every 2 to 3 years.

More commonly, parts of the Caribbean and Central America were hit hard by hurricanes in November.

When a storm develops in November, it usually occurs in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwest or central Atlantic. This is because environmental factors are more suitable for development. Wind shear is usually quite low, cold fronts usually haven’t made it that far south and water temperatures are still quite warm. All of these factors can contribute to storm formation.

But as we saw with Rafael, hurricane season doesn’t always play by the rules – anything is possible.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for Weather.com. She has been reporting on some of the world’s biggest weather and climate stories for two decades.