Ruben Gallego is doing better than other swing state Democrats

by Junna Base November 9, 2024

In several ways, Democrat Ruben Gallego appears to have performed better compared to Vice President Kamala Harris than four key Senate candidates in swing states.

Gallego’s improving standing with Arizona voters is more than a reflection of Republican Kari Lake’s relatively weak appeal among GOP voters and will require special scrutiny as Democrats consider their future after an election loss.

Gallego, a five-term member of Congress, received about 5.6% more votes than Harris in Arizona, based on unofficial results Friday night.

In Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic Senate candidates each received about the same number of votes as Harris.

Gallego’s added appeal is at least partly due to Lake’s significantly weaker standing with Republican voters. So far, she has attracted 90.4% of President-elect Donald Trump’s share of the vote.

In the same four other states, only Sam Brown of Nevada competed with Lake in the vote draw. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Republican candidate received about 96% of Trump’s vote.

But there is at least one other aspect to Gallego’s relatively better standing with voters. Republicans in the other states were likely hampered by third-party alternatives in a way that didn’t exist in Arizona.

The only other option on the ballot in the Arizona Senate race was Eduardo Quintana of the Green Party.

Green Party candidates generally appeal to left-leaning voters who are more likely to vote Democratic if they vote for a major party candidate.

As of Friday evening, Quintana had received just over 2% of the vote.

Quintana may have benefited from $342,000 in spending by a shady Texas-based organization called the Progressive Century Project, which split its expenses between supporting Quintana and opposing Gallego. Lake was not mentioned in it.

In an October mailer, for example, the organization described Gallego as “pro-Israel, pro-genocide, pro-war” and urged voters to “end the genocide in Palestine,” a message intended to appeal to left-leaning voters.

In a social media post, Quintana dismissed the support and tactics.

We were not aware of these mailers and my campaign did not authorize or approve them,” he wrote. “As a #GreenParty candidate, I reject and reject all support from super PACs and dark money.”

In contrast, there appeared to be greater headwinds for GOP candidates from third-party decisions in the other four states.

In Pennsylvania, a Libertarian Senate candidate received at least 88,000 votes, about 1.3%. Libertarians generally appeal to conservative voters who may vote Republican, just as Green Party candidates benefit from Democrats.

The Constitution Party is considered a far-right group that, if anything, differs from the Republican Party in a similar way. The Senate candidate in Pennsylvania received at least 23,000 votes, or 0.3%.

The Green Party in Pennsylvania received at least 64,000 votes, almost half the total votes of the Libertarian and Constitutional candidates.

Republican Dave McCormick is the projected winner in Pennsylvania, defeating incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr., D-Pa. There, McCormick received 96% of Trump’s vote and Casey received 99% of Harris’ vote.

In Michigan, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., and may have received at least some help from third-party alternatives as well.

Libertarian Party and American Taxpayer Party candidates received a combined 98,000 votes in the Michigan Senate race. A Green Party candidate received 54,000, while the far-left Natural Law Party candidate received nearly 19,000.

In Wisconsin, US Senator Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., narrowly defeated Republican Eric Hovde by around 29,000 votes.

The Progressive Century Project, which was active in the Arizona Senate race, also spent $247,000 against Baldwin in its only other expenditures.

But Baldwin also benefited from a libertarian independent and a conservative candidate from the America First Party, who received a combined 71,000 votes. There were no other third-party options in this race.

And in Nevada there was a completely different option.

This state is the only one with the “none of these candidates” option, which received nearly 41,000 votes in the Nevada Senate race.

The state also had a candidate from the Libertarian and Independent American parties, whose website once named her “Conservative of the Year” and noted her advocacy for homeschooling. Her credentials suggest she appealed more to potential Republican voters.

Together, these candidates received 39,000 votes. Combined with the “None” option, Nevadans had 80,000 votes, which likely drew more from the Republican Party than the Democrats.

Incumbent U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., was leading Republican Sam Brown by about 18,000 votes late Friday.

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