San Francisco Giants Free Agent Profile: Willy Adames, SS

These free agent profiles are an annual tradition, and we usually have to wait a few months for the reality to sink in. This offseason is different. There is still confetti on the streets of Los Angeles and the ringing has already begun. Read Baggs for more on the San Francisco Giants’ incredibly shrinking payroll. Bring an umbrella.

The Giants’ top priority is shortstop. This is the opinion of management and it is the opinion of the expert class. There is one free agent shortstop at the top of the class, and that is Willy Adames. The best player in the most important position? It would make sense that the Giants would have a lot of interest in him.

Theoretically.

In practice it could be difficult. It wasn’t meant to be, but here we are. Now is the winter of dissatisfaction with the owners, which is becoming a boring summer due to this appeal for austerity measures.

On the other hand, there is little benefit or spirit to be gained from a team announcing that they will 100 percent sign a player at the top of the market. It’s still absurd to think they’ll narrowly get past Juan Soto, but Adames? He’s still about 600 percent more likely to get a one-year contract (with a player option) from the Giants last offseason than Blake Snell. Everyone except Soto is more likely than Snell last year.

Don’t lose faith, stupid transactionauts. Maybe the Giants will get a player they could use. Let’s dive in.

Why the Giants would want Willy Adames

If you’re excited about Tyler Fitzgerald’s future, you should be. But that’s not the same as parking him at shortstop for the next five years and expecting it to work out. His arm will always be subpar and his average reach won’t be enough to compensate. He’s consistent and makes good decisions, but the Giants have a pitching staff that keeps the ball on the ground. An excellent defensive shortstop is the easiest way to improve run prevention.

Adames is a good defensive shortstop. He wasn’t a Gold Glove finalist this year, but that makes sense when you look at the players who were. Adames is on par with shortstops like Ezequiel Tovar, Dansby Swanson and Masyn Winn. He’s not top-notch Brandon Crawford, but he’s good. Better than solid, not quite the superlative. He has a strong arm and above-average range and would be the Giants’ best defensive shortstop since 2021. If Adames were a league-average hitter, he would be perfect for the Giants.

Except Adames is better. He was just OK in two of his major league seasons, but in the other five he was better than the average National Leaguer, and he does it with power. His batting average and on-base percentage are usually perfectly in line with the rest of the league, but his 30-homer performance clearly sets him apart from his peers. Since they are also right-handed, Oracle Park would only be a minor problem.

Adames also added stolen bases to his game this season, with 21 in 25 attempts in 2024. That doesn’t make him Vince Coleman, but it would replace the speed that Thairo Estrada carried. Estrada was the only Giants player to steal 20 bases or more in the last decade. (Quiz question: Who is the only Giants player to steal 30 bases or more in the Oracle Park era? Answer below in the section.)

Adames is a versatile player and he fits almost everything the Giants are looking for. He also only turned 29 in September, so youth would be on his side. If you’re still not sure what kind of player Adames is, let me make a comparison with the past. I’ll take Adames’ last four years and compare them to the picked four years of Player.

First, here’s Adames over the last four years:

And now the mysterious player X:

Again, that’s four seasons over a six-year period, with the middle two removed because they don’t support my point, but you’re at least a little curious. They seem awfully similar, don’t they?

Player X is Juan Uribe. Adames is preferable both in terms of his age (Uribe was 30th in the table’s first season) and durability, and Uribe’s defensive value came in large part from his ability to play multiple positions well, and not because he was a plus shortstop. Still, it gives you an idea of ​​what kind of player Adames could be. If he’s the best player on your team, that’s not great. If he’s one of several good players in your starting lineup, your team has a good chance of having a lot of fun.

(Trivia answer: Dave Roberts, 31 SB, 2007. Sorry if you expected this to make you feel better.)

Why the Giants wouldn’t want Willy Adames

I still firmly believe that free agents are there for both rebuilding, recasting and competing teams. Don’t get me wrong. Everyone laughed at the 69-93 Nationals signing Jayson Werth after 2010, and everyone wondered what the hell the 43-119 Tigers would do with Iván Rodríguez after 2003. I’m sure there are more recent examples, but I haven’t watched baseball in about 10 years.

But the Giants won’t be able to free agent their way out of this mess, and that’s how it has to be some In return for the loss of two draft picks and international bonus pool funds. If the Giants were to sign Adames, it would cost them a second-round pick and a fifth-round pick. The Giants’ best second-round pick since Nate Schierholtz was Bryan Reynolds, who never appeared for them in the majors. When it comes to actual value to the Giants in the second round, only Jarrett Parker and Andrew Susac had a positive WAR with them. So maybe don’t worry too much about a second-rounder.

However, this is a bit misleading because it ignores opportunity costs. Imagine that Andrew McCutchen really was the missing piece for the 2018 Giants — look, just pretend — and that Reynolds never made it to the majors. Without that second-round pick, the Giants might not make that brilliant alternate universe deal.

Or, if you want to be more realistic, you want all the lottery tickets you can get. For years, the Giants’ most productive fifth-round pick was a lawyer who helped improve working conditions for minor league players (Garrett Broshius). Other contributors included Ryan Vogelsong (13 seasons later), Giuseppe Chiaramonte (still funny to say), and Doug Mirabelli (helped found Triples Alley).

Then they selected Brandon Belt in the fifth round and won the championship with him. All draft picks are busts until they’re not. You want to have as many options as possible, especially if your focus is on building a sustainable squad. The Giants are not one Adames away from a championship. He has a chance to be good for the Giants’ next postseason team, meaning he should still be considered, but losing draft picks and bonus money would hurt more than in other offseasons.

Additionally, the second-best shortstop on the market is Jung Hoo Lee’s best friend and wouldn’t cost a draft pick. In an offseason without Ha-Seong Kim, the Giants may go full throttle for Adames. This offseason, Adames appears to be the riskier (and more expensive) route, although there are many questions about Kim’s recovery from a shoulder injury.

Verdict

The Giants should get both Adames and Kim. Fitzgerald could play second until Kim’s shoulder heals, and after that he could play anywhere. They should also get Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Aaron Judge (with the Yankees eating salary).

However, when it comes to choosing between Adames and Kim, the former is better in terms of cost certainty. He doesn’t have an injured throwing shoulder and has the power the Giants need. The draft picks and bonus money push me to the fence, but not to the other side. Adames would have a much, much better chance of helping the Giants win a single game than any future prospect. He could even help them win multiple games in the next few years.

The Giants need a shortstop. Here is the best there is. It doesn’t have to be more complicated.

Previous free agent profiles

• Juan Soto, OF

• Blake Snell, LHP

(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)