See projected path, spaghetti models

by Junna Base November 8, 2024

Hurricane Rafael, the storm that hit Cuba this week with 110 mph winds and heavy rains, is not expected to reach the United States, but the storm will make its presence felt on U.S. beaches through Monday with high surf and dangerous waves currents.

Rafael regained major hurricane status on Friday, reaching maximum sustained winds of 120 miles per hour, causing swells and high swells in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.

The hurricane will bring a high risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf with large breaking waves on Gulf Coast beaches from Corpus Christi to south along the Florida peninsula through Veterans Day weekend, the National Weather Service offices warned on Friday.

“The waves caused by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. These waves will likely result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast Friday.

In Corpus Christi, waves are expected to reach up to 8 feet on Friday and then rise to up to 10 feet over the weekend, the weather service said. Surf up to six feet (2 meters) is expected on beaches in Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

In its latest update early Friday morning, the hurricane center said Rafael, moving west at Category 3 strength, was expected to weaken and weaken further to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

Rafael in Cuba

As the Category 3 storm swept across the island nation, Rafael flooded western Cuba and knocked out the island’s entire power grid. The resulting blackout deepened a crisis that left many residents without power for more than two weeks due to a series of power grid outages.

Tens of thousands of people were evacuated before the storm hit and about 10 million Cubans remained without power on Thursday as authorities struggled to restore power. The country’s state media said power had been restored in some areas but the capital, Havana, remained largely in the dark.

An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall was expected Friday, leading to storm accumulations totaling 12 inches in parts of western Cuba, according to the hurricane center. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in higher terrain.

Will Hurricane Rafael hit the US?

The United States, particularly Florida, is likely to take a break as AccuWeather’s latest forecast shows Rafael sparing the central Gulf region.

According to AccuWeather meteorologists, Rafael’s further westward course will take him away from the United States. This would make Rafael the first hurricane to reach the Gulf of Mexico in 2024 and not make landfall in the United States

“Rafael’s impact on the U.S. will be indirect, occurring primarily in the form of rough seas over the Gulf and rough surf along Gulf Coast beaches through this weekend,” AccuWeather said. “Depending on the amount of moisture in the structure over the southwest Gulf, some rain may also occur in South Texas next week.”

What is Rafael doing in the Gulf of Mexico?

As at least one model predicted this week, the center’s current forecast is for the hurricane to form a small loop in the Gulf on its path through Monday.

At least a dozen storms since 1963 have formed loops of varying sizes as they were pushed around by larger weather systems. Rafael was controlled by a ridge that stretched from the Atlantic to the Gulf and a valley over the U.S. mainland that once predicted it would make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

In 1985, Hurricane Elena tracked the length of Cuba and then appeared to head toward Florida before steering currents forced it into a short loop and eventually made landfall between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama.

Hurricane Rafael Path Tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not show the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is expected to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Rafael spaghetti models

The illustrations span a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

(This story has been updated to add new information and a new video.)

Contributor: Christopher Cann, USA TODAY

Eric Lagatta covers breaking and breaking news for USA TODAY. Reach him at [email protected]

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