Significant snow potential is on the horizon for Minnesota next week

This weekend in Minnesota, get the last of the leaves together and clear the garden.

It’s still early, but several forecast models are predicting a heavy rain-snow event across much of Minnesota next week.

Models suggest a rain system will move into Minnesota late Monday and Tuesday, then potentially stall across the Upper Midwest by midweek. As it rotates over Minnesota, it will likely suck in cold air strong enough to turn rain into snow by midweek next week. And forecast models suggest heavy snowfall is possible.

Let’s start with NOAA’s GFS model. The GFS turns the system into Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday with an initial (needed) burst of rain. Then it stalls, pulling in colder air and turning the precipitation into mostly snow. Here is NOAA’s GFS run between noon Monday and 6:00 p.m. Wednesday next week.

Have you noticed how the storm stalls over Lake Superior and then turns south again? In this scenario, snowfall would be heaviest in central and northern Minnesota, with less snow falling in the Twin Cities and the south.

The European model is also pushing a storm into our region next week with similar timing. Here is the European model edition for next Wednesday at 6am. It indicates mostly rain in the Twin Cities, with a transition zone to heavy, wet snow to the west and north.

I won’t release the snowfall results yet because it’s foolish to try to make predictions a week in advance with significant forecast model errors. Suffice it to say, however, the potential for heavy snow is increasing over the next week, particularly west and north of the Twin Cities.

I am more confident that the temperatures behind the system will decrease over a longer period of time. Models show better knowledge of temperature trends than precipitation trends. NOAA’s GFS model suggests we’ll dip into the 20s and 30s for several days after the storm next week.

It’s been a wonderfully long fall here in Minnesota. It looks like fall is about to hit, giving way to a wintry landscape across much of Minnesota next week.

Stay tuned.