Steelers vs. Commanders Prediction – Steelers Depot

As in the past, below are the keys and my prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers to win (or lose) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score in their Week 10 game against the Washington Commanders and vice versa.

My Steelers prediction is below.

The Steelers will win if…

1. Run the game control play, keep Jayden Daniels off the field

The best way to deal with the Commanders’ high-powered offense and talented rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is to play spacing. Glue Daniels and Co. to the bench with long drives that eat up time. Pittsburgh should be able to operate with a Commanders defense that struggles to defend the run and often plays from two-high looks against 11 people. A less heavy approach with tight ends might be the way to go to soften the interior.

The more time Daniels spends watching from the sidelines, the less he can influence the game. Washington is used to playing from the front and setting the pace. It will be important to flip this script.

2. Alex Highsmith wins big again

In Week 8, Highsmith took advantage of his 1-on-1 opportunities and had a great day with former Steelers lineman Chris Hubbard. Depending on the publication, Highsmith had between 10 and 12 pressures in the win over the New York Giants and finished the game with two sacks.

Can he do it again? With third-rounder Brandon Coleman he meets a newcomer and replaces the still injured Cornelius Lucas. I liked Coleman coming out of college and he played well this season. Highsmith’s matchup here isn’t a layup like the game in New York. But it could still be beneficial for Highsmith as TJ Watt continues to receive every tackle’s full attention.

3. Special teams make the difference

There is a big swing in favor of Pittsburgh here. The Commanders ruled out K Austin Seibert with a hip injury and turned to Zane Gonzalez. He hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2021 and has had a shaky career, particularly in his first few seasons with the Cleveland Browns.

That gives the Steelers the advantage with Chris Boswell. There are other elements to consider here. Commanders punter Tress Way is excellent and they had a good return game. But they also allow more kick returns than most teams. Cordarrelle Patterson could finally get something back this week, and considering the hot streak in Pittsburgh, he might come away. Meanwhile, the Steelers are bolstered by other special teams returners like LB Tyler Matakevich, who should be a key team player.

The Steelers will lose if…

1. Their defense plays slow

My main concern for this game and the catalyst for my prediction below. Washington’s offense under new OC Kliff Kingsbury is upsetting many defenses. Multiple with window decoration. Pace and different staff groups. It’s enough to corner a team. Pittsburgh’s defense shines best when it can play fast and aggressively. See the ball, get the ball.

It will be different against the commanders. A little Colts-esque with Anthony Richardson with the RPOs and QB run threat, although Daniels is a far more consistent and accurate quarterback than Richardson. There’s a lot of concern here, especially if the Commanders pick up the pace at home. It’s not like Pittsburgh’s defense got off to a good start, scoring points on five of its first eight drives this season.

2. Washington finishes drives better than Pittsburgh

Whoever is better in the red zone will probably win this game. The Commanders are 26th, the Steelers are 28th. On paper, Pittsburgh might have the advantage with the No. 1 red zone defense. But I’m still worried that Washington will come up with a good game plan to undermine the Steelers’ defense in the shallows. But this category – along with sales – will be crucial.

3. Commander’s two-high looks like Rob’s deep ball

Above, we discussed the Steelers’ ability to run the ball against Washington’s two-high look. But that could hurt some of the downfield passing game, especially on early downs. The Commanders tend to man-up on third down, which works in Pittsburgh’s favor, but they could change that scheme to eliminate the outside vertical threats of WRs George Pickens and Mike Williams. I’d like to see Williams beat rookie corner Mike Sainristil.

forecast

Commanders: 30
Steelers: 28

Seasonal forecast record

4-4