The front fueled by Rafael poses a life-threatening flash flood risk for Louisiana

by Junna Base November 12, 2024

Torrential rains led to numerous reports of flash flooding in Louisiana over the weekend as large amounts of moisture were brought into the region from Tropical Storm Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico.

LAKE CHARLES, La. – Tropical Storm Rafael may be churning in open waters hundreds of miles from the U.S. Gulf Coast, but the late storm’s moisture triggered a dangerous flash flood threat in parts of the South, including Louisiana, over the weekend.

A storm system that has brought historic snowfall to the Rocky Mountains and flooding rains to the Plains in recent days drifted east into the lower Mississippi Valley, tapping into a widespread plume of moisture moving north from the Gulf of Mexico which also includes Tropical Storm Rafael.

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Three-hour radar loop. Warning fields are color coded as: severe thunderstorm warnings in yellow, tornado warnings in red, tornado warnings with a confirmed tornado in purple, flash flood warnings in green, and flash flood emergencies in pink.
(FOX Weather)

Some storms were expected to potentially dump 2.5 inches of rain per hour, with storm totals reaching 8 to 10 inches in the heart of the state. Torrential rain continues on Sunday morning, increasing the risk of flooding.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Saturday had classified a portion of central Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Oakdale, as a Level 4 flash flood risk – the highest level on the scale. That risk has since decreased, with parts of central Louisiana under a Level 2 threat on Sunday.

This graphic shows the flash flood risk on Sunday, November 10, 2024.
(FOX Weather)

Flood watches covered much of the area over the weekend. Parts of central Louisiana have received more than three times their average rainfall over the past week, leaving soils already saturated, increasing the risk of flooding.

The city of Alexandria recorded 4.4 inches of rain on Saturday, which is now the second wettest November day on record. The wettest November day occurred on November 5, 1948, when the city received 6 inches (15 cm) of rain.

This graphic shows information about the rain event in Alexandria, Louisiana.
(FOX Weather)

Impressive amounts of rainfall were also reported in other parts of Louisiana over the weekend.

Elizabeth recorded more than 9 inches of rain Saturday, while Ball and Deville each received more than 20 inches of rain.

This graphic shows the amount of precipitation on Saturday, November 9, 2024.
(FOX Weather)

While the heaviest rainfall was concentrated in Louisiana, severe storms stretched about 1,600 miles along the front from Texas to the Ohio Valley, posing isolated flash flooding threats.

“So it’s not just people in Natchitoches or on the Louisiana coast,” said FOX weather meteorologist Kendall Smith. “It goes all the way up to places like Lexington, Nashville and even St. Louis.”

Rain will continue to slowly move through the Southeast and Midwest on Sunday and Monday. However, the FOX Forecast Center said reduced humidity should reduce the risk of flash flooding.