The NBA’s young stars are gearing up for (another) 3-point boom

Anthony Edwards had a simple answer over the weekend when a reporter asked him what he would say to a critic who thinks the two-time All-Star shoots too many threes. That’s a fair question: Edwards is making more than 11 3s per game this season, far more than the 6.7 he attempted a season ago. This is the largest year-over-year increase in the league.

But Edwards didn’t mince his words when discussing his new offensive approach. To such critics, he responded, “Screw them,” and nodded firmly.

Edwards is not alone, but rather represents the most extreme example of a phenomenon sweeping the NBA as the 2024-25 season begins. In addition to Edwards, three other young stars – Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball and Jayson Tatum – also attempt more than 11 three-pointers per game. Luka Doncic is in double figures. Heck, Payton Pritchard and Buddy Hield shoot more than nine three-pointers per game in just a few minutes off the bench. The league is full of people like Edwards saying that fuck it all and let go from the depths.

A season after the Celtics and Mavericks reached the Finals and ranked first and second in distance attempts, the 3-point shot is back on the rise.

From 2016 to 2020, as the league responded to the Warriors’ dominance and analytics became more important, the NBA’s collective 3-point attempt rate (the percentage of shots that are threes) increased from 28 percent to 38 percent. Then this steady long-term growth plateaued; From 2020 to 2024, the 3-point rate increased from 38 percent to just 39 percent.

However, early growth in 2024-25 is similar to that of the last decade. Look at the skyward curve on the far right of this graph – not the plane out ofthe NBA’s 3-point revolution is underway high again on 42 percent of all shot attempts.

This increase is widespread across a number of teams and players. In the first half of the 2020s, about 15 players averaged at least eight 3-point attempts per game in the first two weeks of each season; Last year, 13 players did this. But two weeks into the 2024-25 campaign, that number has essentially been reached doubledas a whopping 27 players start at least eight 3s per game.

This concentration of additional 3-pointers on high-volume shooters is somewhat different than previous iterations of the distance revolution. While stars like Steph Curry and James Harden explored new 3-point frontiers in the 2010s, the biggest push for 3s came from role players who started making shots from 24 feet away instead of 18 feet. By and large, options like DeMar DeRozan, Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid – the three leaders in mid-range attempts last season – continued to operate from their favorite spots inside the 3-point arc, where their rare efficiency shone.

But the current urge for even more 3s is powered by stars that also migrate beyond the arc. The best chance for teams to incorporate as many threes into their shot profiles as possible is to find more attempts from the players who handle the ball the most. “As players have become more comfortable pulling up from beyond the arc, it has become more common for players to avoid isolation midranges in favor of isolation 3s,” analyst Owen Phillips wrote last week.

Several peripheral data points support this theory. For example, this season the percentage of unassisted three-pointers has increased slightly, and the percentage of three-pointers that are pull-up attempts (rather than catch-and-shoot attempts) has also increased.

Perhaps the most noticeable is the split between the 2-man pull-up and the 3-man pull-up. According to an analysis of NBA Advanced Stats data, over the last half decade, 42.5 percent of pull-up attempts were three-point attempts, with little variation from year to year. But so far this season, 49.6 percent of pull-ups have come from beyond the arc.

While DeRozan and Durant are still making most of their shots from mid-range this season, a younger generation of stars is charting a new course: Two weeks into the new season, 3-point growth by young stars is outpacing that of the NBA as a whole. In each season from 2016-17 (the start of the intense league-wide 3-point growth) to 2023-24, players age 26 and younger who scored at least 20 points per game averaged five or six 3-point attempts . In the 2024-25 season, that number has increased to 8.2 three-pointers per game for this group of young scorers.

(The same connection applies to 3-point attempt rate, not just 3-point volume. For a while, young stars were making between 30 and 35 percent of their shots from deep each year, but they’ve increased that to 44 percent Season.)

The only comparable spikes in this graph come from the mid-90s, when the NBA briefly moved closer to the 3-point limit, and from 2012-13, when Curry, Harden and Kyrie Irving averaged 20 points for the first time per game, heralding the arrival of a new breed of lead guard. (A year earlier, in the 2011-12 season, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose were the highest-scoring young guards who found it far easier to rush into the lane than to shoot from deep.)

This season, almost all of the league’s best young stars have dramatically increased their 3-point volume. Nineteen players age 26 or younger are averaging at least 20 points per game, and all but two (Zion Williamson and Ja Morant) attempt at least six 3-pointers per game. Nine young people there The alarm clockThe top 100 NBA players increased their 3-point percentage by at least two attempts per game compared to last season, led by Edwards’ increase of 4.7 shots.

For comparison: only four top 100 players older Over 26 have increased their 3-point volume by at least two attempts per game, although there are more veterans in the top 100, and they are more role players than breakouts: Derrick White, Brandon Ingram, Jerami Grant and Norman Powell.

For the most part, the young, eager shooters are pursuing an analytically sound exchange of less efficient 2-shots for more efficient 3-shots. The pattern isn’t universal — according to Cleaning the Glass, Edwards has taken at least 30 percent of his shots at the rim in every previous season of his career, but is down to 22 percent this season — but individual player shot charts paint a clear picture of history .

Look at Tatum’s distribution for a particularly impactful example. In the past, according to CtG, he split his shots roughly evenly: a third at the rim, a third from mid-range and a third from beyond the arc. But this season, his midfield percentage has dropped to 19 percent, while 54 percent of his attempts are three-pointers.

Tatum is pursuing a team-wide strategy. Led by coach Joe Mazzulla, Boston is venturing into previously unexplored 3-point territory. On opening night, the Celtics set an NBA single-game record with 29 made 3s (eight by Tatum) on 61 attempts; Now they’re shooting an astounding 55 percent of their shots from distance, with more makes (152 or 19 per game) and attempts (407 or 51 per game) than any other team in NBA history through eight games.

Many of these young stars’ 3-point gains come alongside broader gains from their teams. Tatum’s Celtics and Ball’s Hornets (whose new coach, Charles Lee, was an assistant in Boston last season) rank first and second in 3-point attempts this season, and other teams in the top 10 include Edwards’s Timberwolves, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder, White’s Bulls, Jalen Green’s Rockets and Paolo Banchero’s Magic. The Celtics were the only one of these seven teams to do this well last season, but the teams’ 3-point attempt rates are stabilizing very quickly, so we can already say with some confidence that this is the case for the others – and indeed the majority the league – the case has undergone a significant change.

A variety of factors explain this movement. The Celtics offer a clear proof of concept, and the NBA is no stranger to the copycat effect when a team with an extreme approach wins the title. After all, the Warriors’ success fueled the 3-point revolution in the 2010s. And on an individual level, today’s young stars represent the first generation to be influenced by Curry, Harden and Co. at a young age. So they grew up training and learning remotely in a league that has already embraced it.

Other explanations could be more detailed and specific to the current group of young lead guards. Maybe they’re incorporating more threes into their shot diets as a sort of pseudo-load management consideration; Stars who just played the longest season of their careers — thanks to deep playoff runs and the Olympics — are entering the new season with jump shots rather than physical attacks at the rim. Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in drives over the past four seasons, but has fallen in the rankings in the 2024-25 season with about five fewer drives per game.

SGA has been a mediocre shooter in the past (career 34.6 percent on 3s), but could also look to showcase his prowess as a pull-up threat to keep defenses from succumbing to the high pick-and-rolls of Oklahoma City goes under. In the league’s current spacing environment, a reliable pull-up 3 could be the most important tool in a lead guard’s belt.

This move may be the best thing for Gilgeous-Alexander’s long-term growth and his team’s ability to compete for a title this season – but it also dilutes some of what made the MVP runner-up’s game so special and different, as he rose through the ranks of NBA stardom.

The NBA continues to be a fantastically entertaining product, packed with stars, stakes and breathtaking athletic performances night after night. But the stylistic differentiation is valuable when SGA can slip into the lane, Edwards can attack at the rim and Banchero can bully a defender in the post instead of primarily hoisting 3s. There are huge differences in the playing styles of more established stars such as Curry, Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but this is less the case with all the younger stars emerging behind them.

It’s too early to predict doom and these young talents are still finding the right balance in their games. Heck, Edwards has only attempted a total of 13 3s in two games since then Fuck her Comment, after an average of over 13 inches every game before. But it’s clear which way the wind is blowing in the NBA this season. There are more and more 3s coming.