The Needle: Live forecast for the 2024 presidential election

Source: Election results and polls are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historical turnout data and reports from results providers. These are estimates only and may not be supported by reports from election officials.

From The New York Times Election Results Team: Michael Andre, Emma Baker, Neil Berg, Andrew Chavez, Michael Beswetherick, Matthew Bloch, Lily Boyce, Irineo Cabreros, Nico Chilla, Nate Cohn, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Leo Dominguez, Tiff Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Junghye Kim, KK Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Joey K. Lee, Vivian Li, Alex Lemonides, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Dan Simmons-Ritchie, Charlie Smart, Jonah Smith , Urvashi Uberoy, Isaac White and Christine Zhang

Data collection and additional contributions from Kiara Adams, Tallulah Anne, Hayley Arader, Camille Baker, Ademola Bello, Gray Beltran, Laura Bejder Jensen, Kitty Bennett, Matthew Berkowitz, Anna Bialas, Hamilton Boardman, Delilah Brumer, Mackenzie Bruns, Samantha Callicutt, Lindsay Cassella , Ben Casselman, Agnes Chang, Dana Chiueh, Brian Conway, Emma G. Croteau, Jason Alejandro Cruz, William B. Davis, Avery Dews, Hang Do Thi Duc, Madison Dong, Will Dunning, Jonathan Ellis, Brianna Fallon, Dylan Freedman , Aspen Ford, Kelsea Frobes, Kat Fulwider, Madeline Gillespie, Tom Giratikanon, Angela Guo, Rebecca Halleck, Piper Heath, Brian Hoerst, Emily Holshouser, Ruth Igielnik, Danielle Ivory, Samuel Jacoby, Yuchen Jin, Josh Katz, John Keefe, Michael H . Keller, Branden Lawrence, Leilani Leach, Christopher Lomahquahu, Genevy Machuca, Bea Malsky, Analeise Mayor, Ruby Mivada McKeown, Jacob Meschke, Blacki Migliozzi, Duy K. Nguyen, Marissa Orr, Katherine Oung, Bianca Pallaro, Francesca Paris, Adam Playford , Drake Presto, Alexandra Psak, Kevin Quealy, Eric Rabinowitz, Beena Raghav, Lizzie Ramirez, Mira Rojanasakul, Grace Rufalo, María Sánchez Díez, Elizabeth Secor, Isabel Sieh, Ethan Singer, Jeremy Singer-Vine, Albert Sun, Nisa Talavera, Bella Virgilio, Eve Washington and Joel Wolfram

Edited by Wilson Andrews, Lindsey Rogers Cook, William P. Davis, Tom Gaffney, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney, and Rachel Shorey

Source: Election results and polls are from The Associated Press. The Times publishes its own estimates for each candidate’s share of the final vote and the number of remaining votes, based on historical turnout data and reports from results providers. These are estimates only and may not be supported by reports from election officials.

Andreas Fischer,