Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today: Ole Miss climbs into the top 10, Miami falls in the college football rankings

After a weekend full of surprises, the college football rankings are at a point where voters in the AP Top 25 poll must decide how to weigh recent results, resumes and head-to-head results to sort out the confusing jumble of teams within to rank in the top 20.

The easiest prediction is that Ole Miss will advance after a blowout win against Georgia. It is the highest-ranked opponent that Ole Miss has defeated at home in front of the largest crowd in program history. The current one Goal post location The number of votes is unknown, but the impact of Lane Kiffin’s victory over Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs is significant and will be reflected in the rankings as voters update their ballots.

However, things get difficult after week 11 because the direct results don’t quite match. Ole Miss will be on the rise, while LSU, which beat the Rebels earlier this season, will fall after Alabama takes a lead in Death Valley. The Crimson Tide numbers will also go up, but where they fare against Ole Miss will be an interesting debate as both teams have two losses and notable wins, but also losses against teams that are unlikely to be ranked in the new AP poll Ranking list.

And how will these up-and-coming teams fare against Miami, which just suffered its first loss of the season against Georgia Tech? The Bulldogs’ decline also seems notable considering they were coming off a straight-set win against one-loss Texas, a top-five team that defeated Florida on Saturday. AP voters often use a combination of records, resumes and direct results to sort their ballots, but there are too many conflicts for a ranked-choice process to be clean.

There’s also the influence of the College Football Playoff rankings.

Over the ten seasons of the College Football Playoff era, we have seen many instances where there is a cat-and-mouse relationship between the selection committee and the AP voters; The opinions of one poll could influence the other as the publication date is two days apart. AP voters are sometimes more willing to offer their support to a team the committee favors, and sometimes it’s Sunday’s release of the AP Top 25 that sets a good starting point for expectations for what the committee announces Tuesday night will give.

In the first release for 2024, we saw 13 of the top 17 teams with the exact same rankings as in the AP poll, with the only difference being a spot swap at spots 2-3 and 14-15. That’s not our general expectation for what comes after the Week 11 upheaval, but for now our job is just to predict how AP voters will react.

Here’s how we predict the new AP Top 25 poll on Sunday after Week 11:

1. Oregon (Last week – 1): There’s no better option for the No. 1 team in the country than Oregon, which moved to 10-0 with a 21-point home win over Maryland. The Ducks were consistent last week and probably could be again, even if the win came with some hiccups and penalty issues down the stretch. Next up is a road trip to Wisconsin, a week off and then the regular season finale against rival Washington.

2. Ohio State (3): On a day full of shocks, there was no question whether Ohio State would be on alert. The Buckeyes will move into second place just behind the Ducks after a 45-0 shutout win over Purdue.

3.Texas (5): The Longhorns put together a dominant performance early Saturday against an undermanned Florida team, and that 49-17 result will serve as a good reminder to AP voters why they rank Texas as a top-five team.

4. Penn State (6): Great response from the Nittany Lions, who bounced back from a disappointing loss with a dominant 35-6 win over Washington.

5. Indiana (8): While the Hoosiers failed to meet oddsmakers’ expectations as two-touchdown favorites, Indiana beat one of the most talented opponents on its schedule and improved to 10-0 on the season. Our prediction is that even with a close win, an easy win against a program of Michigan’s caliber will flip just enough ballots for Indiana to close the razor-thin gap between its positioning last week and at least one of the losing teams ahead of them in the ranking list.

6. Tennessee (7): Nico Iamaleava’s status is of utmost importance for Tennessee after a 33-14 win over Mississippi State. The Vols quarterback didn’t play in the second half because of an upper-body injury, and with Georgia competing next week, all the attention will be on his status. But as far as the rankings go, there shouldn’t be too much adjustment after a win that was largely in line with expectations, especially without QB1 in the lineup for the second half.

7. BYU (9): While other previously unbeaten teams’ unpredictable starts fell apart over the past two weeks, BYU remains undefeated after an epic rivalry win over Utah.

8. Notre Dame (10): Style was there to score points, and Notre Dame was happy to get them with a 52-3 win over Florida State. This is now five straight games in which the Fighting Irish have scored 30 points or more and four straight double-digit wins for a team that appears increasingly poised to compete against the best teams in the country in the College Football Playoff.

9. Alabama (11): There’s a ceiling to Alabama’s rise in the rankings, although voters will be more enthusiastic about the Crimson Tide after Saturday night’s win at LSU. With a straight loss to Tennessee and one more loss than the Vols, we expect Alabama to move into the top 10 and receive much more consensus support as a top 10 team but remain outside the top five.

10. Ole Miss (16): The Rebels will be the notable advancer, as they not only beat a top-five team, but do so easily in adverse conditions with a quarterback who was hampered in winning. Jaxson Dart’s tough performance highlights a clear win for Ole Miss in its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance.

11. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs fell to 7-2 with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss. Wins at Texas and against Clemson add to the argument. With the losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, there are no bad losses. However, the optics are not that great.

12.Miami (4): While this may be on the aggressive side of predicting Miami’s demise, the lack of high-profile wins gives the Hurricanes a profile closer to Boise State and SMU. Therefore, we expect them to end up there if the focus is on winning the ACC to guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff.

13. Boise State (12): There could be some shifts after a close matchup against Nevada, but ultimately we expect the Broncos to keep their pecking order stable.

14. SMU (13): The Mustangs were out in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Boston College.

15. Texas A&M (15): The Aggies were out in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against New Mexico State.

16th Army (18): The return of star quarterback Bryson Dailey was the headline, but the real key to Army’s improvement to 9-0 were two end zone interceptions by the defense in a 14-3 win at North Texas.

17. Clemson (19): Things looked bleak early on when Virginia Tech blocked a field goal – the third blocked field goal in two weeks for Clemson – and returned it for a touchdown, but the Tigers took control of the game in a hostile environment and held with one 10-point win at Virginia Tech.

18. Colorado (21): After starting 13-0, the Buffs got the offense rolling and made enough stops in the second half to overtake Lubbock with a 41-27 win over Texas Tech. The Buffs are now 7-2 and firmly in contention for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

19. LSU (14): The Tigers’ win against Ole Miss increases their chances of staying in the top 25, but where they finish among teams in the 20s depends on voter preference. Without a ton of obvious options entering the rankings, we expect them to stay just outside the top 20. But anything from No. 17 to No. 22 would be a viable spot for LSU to land.

20. Washington State (20): The Cougars are currently in action against Utah State.

21. Kansas State (22): The Wildcats were out in Week 11 and will be back in action next week against Arizona State.

22. Louisville (25): The Cardinals were sidelined in Week 11 and will be back in action next week at Stanford.

23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers were ranked No. 26 in voting points last week but appeared at No. 24 in the College Football Playoff rankings. These factors will help Missouri win against Oklahoma on Saturday night and get Missouri back into the AP poll.

24. South Carolina (NR): The Gamecocks continued their winning ways last week after defeating top-10 Texas A&M with a solid 28-7 road win over Vanderbilt. The result will knock the Commodores out of the top 25 and push South Carolina, which was 27th in voting points last week, back into the AP Poll for the first time since the final rankings of the 2022 season.

25. Tulane (NR): A win against Temple alone won’t sway voters to add Tulane to their list, but the Green Wave is demanding more attention after going 52-6 and improving to 8-2 overall and 6-0 in conference play . With games against Navy and Memphis still on the schedule, there’s still plenty of work to be done to secure a spot in the American Athletic Conference title game, but Jon Sumrall is on a seven-game winning streak with a team at its best Football of all time plays at the right time every year.

Expected exit: No. 17 Iowa State, No. 22 Pitt, No. 24 Vanderbilt