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Traders see a good chance that the Fed will cut interest rates again in December and skip them in January

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on November 7, 2024 in Washington, DC.

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images

Expectations of a rate cut in December remained high after the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point in November, but market prices suggest an “exit” is likely to occur in January.

On Thursday afternoon, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate, which determines how much banks charge each other for overnight loans, to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

Before the Fed released that decision at 2 p.m. ET, market prices suggested a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December rose to over 70% after the meeting, while the probability of a pause fell to almost 29%. The future interest rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading 30-day Fed Funds futures contracts.

Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve would forego a rate cut in January was about 71%. That figure was slightly above the 67% level before the Fed’s November decision was released on Thursday afternoon.

—CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.

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